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Senegal’s top court strikes down constitutional reform that curbed presidential power

Senegal Constitutional Court ruling

Senegal’s newly created Constitutional Court struck down a constitutional amendment on Thursday that would have shifted significant authority away from the presidency, delivering a setback to the parliamentary majority behind the change and deepening a political rift at the top of the West African country’s government.

The court ruled that the amendment, adopted by the National Assembly on June 29, violated the constitution. Lawmakers had passed the measure by an overwhelming majority, but President Bassirou Diomaye Faye asked the court to examine the procedures used to pass it, a review that ultimately found grounds to invalidate the reform.

A break between former allies

The amendment was the product of a rupture between Faye and Ousmane Sonko, once his closest political partner and the man who helped bring him to power. Faye removed Sonko as prime minister in May, and Sonko was quickly elected speaker of the National Assembly, a body Sonko’s Pastef party controls with a commanding majority of 130 out of 165 seats.

From his new post, Sonko pushed the constitutional changes through parliament. The reform would have expanded the powers of the National Assembly and the office of prime minister while narrowing those of the presidency. It also included a provision barring a sitting president from simultaneously leading a political party, a restriction that would have directly affected Faye, who said last week he intends to form his own party.

Opponents of the amendment, including figures within Faye’s own presidential coalition, characterized it as retaliation by Sonko following his dismissal. Aminata Toure, a leader within the presidential coalition, said at a briefing that parliament was being used to weaken the president. Critics outside government made similar arguments, framing the push as an attempt by Sonko to consolidate influence through the legislature after losing his position in the executive branch.

The measure also proposed replacing Senegal’s Constitutional Council with a new, larger Constitutional Court made up of nine members instead of seven, along with new limits on the president’s ability to dissolve the National Assembly and new restrictions on executive decisions made in the period between a presidential election and the official announcement of results.

Protests and a promised referendum

The amendment’s passage in late June triggered street demonstrations in Dakar. Opponents gathered outside the National Assembly building chanting slogans in defense of the existing constitution, and police used tear gas to disperse the crowd. Inside the chamber, opposition lawmakers boycotted the vote, and the session grew heated enough that security personnel removed at least one lawmaker by force.

Faye initially responded by declining to sign the bill outright and instead announcing plans for a national referendum, saying voters themselves should decide on changes that would reshape the balance of power between the presidency and parliament. His government did not set a date for that vote before the Constitutional Court intervened.

Justice Minister Moussa Sarr had told parliament ahead of the amendment’s passage that the president wanted the text put directly to the public rather than settled through the legislature alone. Pastef defended the reform as a rebalancing of power among Senegal’s executive, legislative and judicial branches, arguing the country’s presidential system had concentrated too much authority in one office.

A widening political rift

Thursday’s ruling represents a win for Faye in his escalating standoff with Sonko, though the two men led the coalition that won Senegal’s 2024 presidential election together and built their political movement on a shared platform. Their split has played out largely through institutions, with Sonko using his position atop the legislature to advance changes that would constrain the presidency he no longer occupies.

Sonko responded to the court’s decision on the social media platform X, saying he respected the ruling. The measured response suggests Pastef may pursue other paths to revive elements of the reform rather than directly challenge the court, though the party retains its large legislative majority and the ability to bring similar measures back for another vote.

The Constitutional Court said Faye had specifically asked it to examine the procedures lawmakers followed in passing the amendment, a review aimed at identifying violations serious enough to invalidate the entire text. That procedural focus, rather than a ruling on the substance of shifting power from the presidency to parliament, leaves open the possibility that a revised version of the reform could return through proper channels.

Complications for an ongoing debt crisis

The power struggle between Faye and Sonko carries consequences beyond domestic politics. Senegal has spent the past two years working to resolve a financial crisis that emerged after the government disclosed in 2024 that previous administrations had misreported the country’s debt levels, an admission that shook investor confidence and complicated the country’s relationships with international lenders.

Faye and Sonko came to power promising greater transparency in how the country manages its finances, and the debt disclosure became an early test of that pledge. A protracted rift between the president and the parliamentary leader who commands a supermajority in the Assembly threatens to slow the coordinated response Senegal needs to rebuild trust with creditors and stabilize its finances.

With the Constitutional Court’s ruling now in place, attention shifts to whether Sonko and Pastef attempt to bring a revised amendment back to parliament, and whether Faye proceeds with plans to launch his own political party now that the provision barring him from doing so has been struck down. Neither side has signaled a retreat from the broader fight over how power should be distributed among Senegal’s presidency, parliament and courts.

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George Mensah

George Mensah is a journalist covering global politics, international conflicts and economic developments for clicxpost. He specializes in breaking news analysis and geopolitical reporting.

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Election Assistance Commission Trump fires

Trump fires final three election assistance commissioners ahead of midterms

July 10, 2026 No Comments

President Donald Trump removed the last three sitting members of the Election Assistance Commission on Thursday, leaving the federal body that supports election administration across the country without any commissioners just months before the midterm elections. The White House confirmed the move after Reuters first reported it.

The four-member commission is designed to split evenly between the two parties. All four seats are now empty. The lone Republican appointee resigned, while the two Democratic appointees were fired through an email from the White House Presidential Personnel Office, according to one person familiar with the matter and two others briefed on the decision. A fourth commissioner had already left the post in April.

The termination email sent to the commissioners and reviewed by Reuters read: “On behalf of President Donald J. Trump, I am writing to inform you that your position as Commissioner of the Election Assistance Commission is terminated, effective immediately. Thank you for your service.”

A White House official defended the firings in a statement, pointing to a recent Supreme Court ruling that expanded the president’s authority to remove members of independent agencies. “The President, and head of the Executive Branch, reserves the right to remove individuals that may not be totally aligned with the important task of securing America’s elections and ensuring every legal vote is counted,” the official said. The official added that the administration has been coordinating with other agencies and local partners to guard against election fraud and to build up infrastructure ahead of the midterms.

The commission, created by Congress through the 2002 Help America Vote Act, functions as a clearinghouse for information on how elections are run. It accredits labs that test voting equipment, certifies voting systems used by states, and maintains the national mail voter registration form required under the 1993 National Voter Registration Act.

The three ousted commissioners, Thomas Hicks, Benjamin Hovland and Christy McCormick, were each confirmed unanimously by the Senate. Under the 2002 law, the president can name replacements, but the White House has not said when or how it plans to refill the commission.

Pressure on mail voting and 2020 claims

The firings follow months of pressure from Trump and administration officials to tighten vote-by-mail rules before the midterms, along with continued efforts to revisit the outcome of the 2020 election, which Trump lost to Democrat Joe Biden. Trump has repeated unproven claims throughout his second term that the 2020 race was rigged against him.

Election administration has traditionally been left to individual states, which set their own rules for registration, mail ballots and polling procedures. Trump has pushed for a larger federal role in that process as Republicans and Democrats prepare for the November midterms.

Senator Mark Warner, a Virginia Democrat, criticized the firings in a social media post Thursday, saying the move “should concern every American, regardless of party.” He called the removal of every remaining commissioner months before the midterms “an extraordinary step that demands an immediate explanation from the administration and raises profound concerns about political interference in the institutions that support our elections.”

The administration’s justification traces back to a Supreme Court decision that gave the president wider latitude to remove officials at independent agencies, a ruling the White House cited directly in defending Thursday’s terminations. Commissioners at agencies like the EAC were historically seen as insulated from removal by ordinary political disagreement, given the requirement that the panel split evenly between the parties. That structure was meant to keep election administration support out of partisan hands.

With the commission now empty, its day-to-day functions, including certifying voting systems and accrediting testing labs ahead of the midterms, fall into question. The agency’s website describes its role as a resource for state and local election officials rather than a body that runs elections directly, but the certification and accreditation work touches equipment used across much of the country.

It remains unclear whether Trump will move quickly to name four new commissioners or leave the seats vacant heading into the midterms. Senate confirmation would be required for any replacements, a process that can take months even when the White House prioritizes it.

The firings add to a string of moves by the Trump administration affecting independent federal bodies since the Supreme Court ruling on removal power. Officials at other agencies have faced similar terminations, part of a broader effort by the administration to bring agencies historically shielded from direct presidential control more closely under White House direction.

Democrats have raised concerns that emptying the commission just before a major election cycle could slow down certification of new voting equipment or leave state officials without federal guidance during a period when several states are considering changes to their voting procedures. Republicans have generally supported the administration’s push for stricter election security measures, including tighter mail-ballot verification.

The EAC’s remaining staff, separate from the commissioners themselves, continue to operate the agency day to day, but major decisions such as certifying new voting systems typically require sign-off from the commission. Without confirmed commissioners in place, that process could stall unless the White House moves quickly to nominate and the Senate moves quickly to confirm replacements.

Hicks, Hovland and McCormick had each served on the commission for multiple years and were seen as experienced hands on election administration policy, according to people familiar with the commission’s work. Their unanimous Senate confirmations reflected the bipartisan structure Congress built into the agency when it was created in 2002 in response to the disputed 2000 presidential election.

The commission was one of several reforms that emerged from that period, alongside changes to voting equipment standards and provisional ballot rules, aimed at rebuilding public confidence in how U.S. elections are run and counted.

Trump stock market presidency

Trump makes the stock market his scoreboard, but many Americans aren’t even in the game

July 10, 2026 No Comments

President Donald Trump opened the trading week from an unusual spot: the Oval Office, ringing the New York Stock Exchange’s opening bell by remote hookup. The moment fit a pattern he has built through the first year and a half of his second term. He treats rising stock prices as the clearest scorecard of his presidency, even as many households still struggle with the cost of groceries, rent and gas.

Roughly four in 10 Americans hold no stock investments at all, according to Gallup polling. That gap has some economists warning that Trump’s preferred yardstick tells only part of the story. He has pointed to equity gains as vindication for decisions ranging from the U.S. strike on Iran to sweeping global tariffs and his signature tax and spending law, all while pushing more households to buy in and tying the federal government’s fortunes directly to a handful of major companies.

White House officials describe the strategy as part of a longer-term push to widen stock ownership across the country. Investors have largely welcomed it, saying it signals a president who tracks market conditions closely and reacts fast.

Trump brings up the market constantly. He has raised it in meetings with foreign leaders, at campaign-style rallies and even during formal military ceremonies. In June, moments before presenting three service members with the Medal of Honor, the nation’s highest military decoration, he told the room: “The stock market just hit a new all-time high, the 401(k)s are at a new all-time high, and oil is dropping like a rock.”

His policy agenda has followed the same logic. The $4.1 trillion tax and spending package Republicans passed, which Trump has branded the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” created government-funded investment accounts for newborns, dubbed “Trump accounts.” In February, he proposed matching up to $1,000 in 401(k) contributions for workers who sign up for a related “Trump IRA” program.

The administration has also taken direct financial positions in private companies, something past presidents largely avoided. It holds an equity stake in Intel and a “golden share” in U.S. Steel, and has struck revenue-sharing arrangements with chipmakers Nvidia and AMD. Trump frames those deals as evidence of a strong economy rather than what several economists call an unusually direct government hand in corporate America.

A market split by income

Roughly 40% of Americans hold no stock, and the wealthiest 1% control more than half of all capital market investments in the country, according to Gallup. Economists have started calling the result a “K-shaped economy”: affluent households keep spending and investing while middle- and lower-income families pull back on both.

Stocks have added $15 trillion in value since Trump returned to the White House, a gain of about 25%, and now make up roughly a third of total household wealth in the U.S. But that wealth sits overwhelmingly with people who already had money in the market. For the bottom half of American households, savings tend to sit in home equity and durable goods like cars and appliances, not stock portfolios, so market swings barely touch their day-to-day finances.

The broader economy is holding up reasonably well. Growth remains solid and unemployment is low. But inflation has ticked up in recent months, driven partly by the fallout from the Iran conflict, and that has soured public sentiment even as headline market numbers climb.

White House spokesman Kush Desai said in a statement that Trump wants “every American” to hold “their own piece of the pie” as the economy expands.

A metric with limits

Trump has direct personal exposure to market swings. His financial disclosures show his investment accounts made 3,600 stock trades worth between $212 million and $695 million in the first three months of 2026 alone. “You know why I’m profiting? Because the stock market’s going up, everybody’s profiting,” he said last week.

Even some of his closest allies concede the stock market is an incomplete gauge of the economy. “It’s not a perfect correlation. There are other measures of how businesses are doing,” said Stephen Moore, a conservative economist who advises Trump and White House officials periodically. “But a valuation of their stock is an important indication.”

Critics say the president has let market reactions steer major policy calls. He rolled back large parts of his tariff plan after stocks sold off sharply following the initial announcement. He has also weighed market reaction while managing the Iran conflict, mindful of comparisons to President Herbert Hoover, who was in office during the 1929 crash. At the Group of Seven summit in June, Trump said he noticed that “every time we talked about the possibility of peace, the stock market shot up like a rocket ship.”

“This is the way that people can get his attention or society can get his attention,” said Alex Jacquez, chief of policy and advocacy at the left-leaning Groundwork Collaborative. “Where it’s dangerous is that it only seems to assert itself when corporate or financial interests are at stake.”

Jacquez said measuring the economy through stock performance leaves out younger Americans who hold little equity, along with women and minority groups who remain underrepresented among stock owners. The approach also skips over small businesses, which employ a large share of American workers, and privately held companies that never trade on public markets.

Many economists instead track gross domestic product and wage growth to judge economic health. U.S. GDP grew 2.1% in 2025, and average hourly wages rose 3.5%, a gain that outpaced last year’s inflation but has not kept up with the recent uptick in prices.

Some investors argue that a president fixated on stock performance works in their favor, cutting the odds of a “black swan” event, a term for sudden, severe shocks that catch markets off guard. Administration officials have made similar arguments, though some on Wall Street doubt any president can fully insulate markets from a downturn.

“Having President Trump always focused on the market helps investors sleep well at night,” said Dan Ives, global head of technology research at Wedbush Securities. “It almost creates some natural guardrails.”

trump ties his presidency to stock gains even as 4 in 10 americans own no stock

SpaceX IPO millionaires

New spacex millionaires splurge on meteorites, fire trucks and watches

July 9, 2026 No Comments

Chip, a former data scientist at Elon Musk’s SpaceX, is sitting on roughly $3.5 million in company shares. He recently spent it on $10,000 worth of meteorites and a $5,000 fire truck.

The 50-year-old isn’t entirely sure what he’ll do with the truck, maybe use it as an attraction at his 3-year-old’s birthday party. But his new wealth, tied to SpaceX’s initial public offering in June, has given him room to buy what he calls “silly” things, he told Reuters.

Chip, who asked to use only his first name to discuss his finances, has also been eyeing a TAG Heuer Carrera Calibre 1887 SpaceX Chronograph watch priced around $8,000, a piece inspired by NASA astronaut John Glenn’s 1962 orbital mission.

Whether the roughly 440,000 new U.S. millionaires created by last year’s stock market gains and this year’s wave of AI company listings will fuel a new boom for the global luxury goods sector remains an open question. “This industry is competing more and more with other industries and with other buckets of possible expenditures and purchases,” said Federica Levato, a partner at the consultancy Bain & Company.

Fashion brands, already dealing with weak demand in China and cautious consumers worldwide, are hoping tech’s newest millionaires can offer some relief. The personal luxury goods market, valued at €358 billion, or $406 billion, in 2025, has shrunk over the past two years, according to a Bain study released last month.

Still, North America was among the fastest-growing markets in the quarter ending March 31 for luxury groups LVMH, Richemont, Hermès and Kering’s Gucci. Richemont CEO Nicolas Bos told analysts in May that strong sales in the region reflected a high level of consumer confidence in America.

A different kind of buyer

Brands courting tech’s newly wealthy face a different set of tastes and competing priorities that pull attention away from traditional luxury goods. Zack Kass, an AI strategist who led OpenAI’s go-to-market unit until 2023 and holds an undisclosed stake in SpaceX, said his own spending reflects a background in athletics rather than fashion. “I played volleyball in high school and college,” he said. “I literally took my OpenAI winnings and bought a professional sports team,” referring to a volleyball franchise.

Tech employees are gravitating instead toward experiences and wellness, including smartwatches that track steps and calories, said Harrison Colcord, founder of Harrison Lifestyle Concierge.

Robert, a former SpaceX engineer whose shares are worth roughly $4 million, said he and his wife recently bought new Apple Watches as part of a renewed focus on fitness. The couple, who also asked to use only his first name, plans to reinvest most of their new wealth after taking a cruise around Alaska.

Traditional luxury watchmakers still have an opening, though, partly because brands like Rolex and Richemont’s Cartier often carry resale values above retail price, giving them investment appeal beyond status. “You’re not wearing your smartwatch with your tux or your suit,” Colcord said.

The U.S. was the top destination for Swiss watch exports in 2025, accounting for 17% of the global total despite disruption from import tariffs, according to the Federation of the Swiss Watch Industry. Rolex declined to comment, and Richemont did not respond to a request for comment.

Real estate and cars over apparel

Apparel brands face a tougher path, competing with industries well outside traditional luxury for a share of this new spending. Newly wealthy buyers spend about a third less on tailored clothing and leather goods than clients with generational wealth, said Filippo Bianchi, who leads the global luxury team at Boston Consulting Group. Their top priority instead tends to be durable assets like real estate, yachts and cars, he said.

Even so, logo-forward brands like Chanel and Hermès still carry appeal among affluent tech clients, said Mary Gonsalves Kinney, a California-based stylist who works with tech executives.

Chip said he has no plans to buy luxury apparel, aside from a possible upgrade to his outdoor gear. His last jacket purchase came from Goodwill. “I’ve been in T-shirts and shorts for years,” he said. “That’s what I’m comfortable in. I don’t see that changing.”

Trump voter fraud claims

Judge revives republican states’ access to immigration database for voter checks

July 9, 2026 No Comments

A federal judge in Florida has ordered the U.S. Department of Homeland Security to restore four Republican-led states’ access to an immigration database used to check the citizenship status of people on their voter rolls, setting up a direct conflict with another judge who had already blocked the database’s nationwide use.

U.S. District Judge T. Kent Wetherell II, sitting in Pensacola, issued the ruling Tuesday. He acknowledged Washington, D.C.-based U.S. District Judge Sparkle Sooknanan’s June 22 decision halting use of the revamped database, which stores Social Security numbers, citizenship status and other personal data on people nationwide.

Wetherell, appointed by Republican President Donald Trump, said DHS had violated an earlier settlement with Florida, Ohio, Iowa and Indiana when it disabled the states’ access to key database features in order to comply with Sooknanan’s order. “The fact that Defendants disabled those features to comply with Judge Sooknanan’s order does not change the fact that they violated the agreement,” he wrote.

Sooknanan, appointed by Democratic President Joe Biden, had sided with voting rights and privacy advocates who argued the overhaul of the system, known as SAVE, made it less accurate and put eligible voters at risk of losing their registration. Wetherell said he disagreed with her conclusion that the revamp was unlawful or that it violated privacy statutes governing federal disclosure of Social Security numbers.

Wetherell said that when he approved the Trump administration’s settlement of a Biden-era lawsuit Florida filed in 2024 over SAVE’s earlier implementation, he had already found, implicitly, that the changes required by the deal complied with federal law.

He acknowledged the bind his ruling created for DHS. “One from this Court requiring them to include certain features in the SAVE system and one from Judge Sooknanan prohibiting them from doing so,” he wrote, describing the two contradictory orders the agency now faces. “One of the orders has to give, and not surprisingly, the Court is not persuaded by Defendants’ (and the amici’s) arguments that its order is the one that should give,” he added.

Sooknanan responded in a separate order Wednesday, saying Wetherell’s ruling has no bearing on the case in front of her. She also rejected the Trump administration’s request to pause her ruling while it pursues an appeal. She wrote that Wetherell “erred in significant ways” and effectively issued an advisory opinion, arguing he “had no authority to make merits determinations about the legality of SAVE, either implicitly or explicitly.”

DHS did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Election administration in the U.S. falls to individual states. Trump and his allies have repeatedly claimed states aren’t doing enough to stop voter fraud, despite audits and academic research showing it is uncommon. Trump has also falsely claimed his 2020 election loss resulted from fraud.

His administration’s push to expand federal control over elections has run into repeated resistance in the courts. Judges have separately blocked Trump’s executive orders that would have required proof of citizenship for voter registration and restricted how mail ballots are counted.

Last year’s overhaul of SAVE let users search multiple records simultaneously and gave them access to individuals’ Social Security numbers. Since then, several Republican-led states have run their voter rolls against the database and canceled the registrations of voters flagged as noncitizens.

Voting rights groups, including the League of Women Voters, say the database can return outdated results, sometimes mislabeling naturalized citizens, who are legally eligible to vote, as noncitizens.

Trump Erdogan NATO summit

Turkey rolls out red carpet for Trump at Nato summit, seeks to boost us ties

July 9, 2026 No Comments

Turkey rolled out a red-white-and-blue air show and named a new airport building after President Donald Trump, working to elevate its relationship with the U.S. at a NATO summit in Ankara, even as the American leader clashed with other members of the alliance.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met Trump at the airport on Tuesday and walked arm-in-arm with him. Trump later pledged to drop sanctions he himself had imposed on Turkey during his first term, six years earlier, in what had been one of the lowest points in U.S.-Turkish relations.

The warmth continued through the two-day summit, which closed Wednesday. Trump said he was willing to sell Turkey F-35 fighter jets, though he later added he had not fully made up his mind. He praised Erdogan repeatedly throughout the visit, and the two leaders exchanged smiles, laughter and embraces as they communicated through translators.

Trump says he attended because of Erdogan

For many diplomats, Turkey’s biggest challenge going into the summit was simply making sure Trump would show up. He has attended every NATO summit since taking office, but has also long argued that member countries are not contributing enough to the alliance. Trump said this time he only attended because Erdogan was hosting, a comment that itself amounted to a diplomatic win for Turkey, which has sought to raise its profile within NATO while working through longstanding friction with Washington.

“It was valuable that Trump emphasised the importance he places on myself and our friendship,” Erdogan said as the summit wrapped up. “I thank my dear friend once again.”

A day after his cordial meeting with Erdogan, Trump upended the broader summit on Wednesday, demanding that the U.S. cut trade ties with Spain and repeating his claims on Greenland, a move that angered NATO ally Denmark. He later said the leaders’ meeting had been marked by “a lot of unity,” offering some reassurance to a trans-Atlantic alliance uneasy about a U.S. president who has repeatedly questioned its value.

Seated next to NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Trump also defended Erdogan against criticism from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who had warned earlier in the week against selling F-35 jets to Turkey.

U.S. signals plan to drop sanctions

At an earlier meeting in front of reporters, Trump drew a thumbs-up from Erdogan after saying he would lift U.S. sanctions tied to Turkey’s 2019 purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems. He also signaled openness to selling the F-35 jets that had been blocked under those same sanctions and related U.S. laws.

Turkey had pushed for this outcome for years while continuing to defend its decision to buy the S-400s, a purchase that had angered Washington and other NATO members and damaged trust within the alliance at the time. Trump’s pledge is still likely to run into resistance in Congress, where existing law bars sanctions relief while Turkey retains the S-400 systems. It could also complicate matters for Ankara with Moscow, given end-user obligations tied to the original purchase agreement.

The diplomatic progress, even if largely symbolic so far, comes just weeks after a U.S. court closed out a yearslong criminal case against Turkish state lender Halkbank, a case Erdogan had long described as unjust.

Western governments stay quiet on rights concerns

The warmer ties could give Erdogan, who has led Turkey for 23 years, a boost at home, where polls show his popularity being tested by a sweeping legal crackdown on the country’s main opposition party. Critics view the crackdown as a broader test of Turkey’s democratic institutions.

Asked about a wave of arrests in the run-up to the summit, including of journalists and a well-known comedian, Rutte said democracy requires more than free elections. It also depends, he said, on the right to protest and a free press.

“Never before in our history has there been a government so deeply dependent on the U.S. administration,” said Ozgur Ozel, leader of the ousted main opposition Republican People’s Party, on Tuesday.

Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, had kept some distance from Erdogan, largely over concerns about human rights and civil liberties in Turkey. Since then, Western governments have grown quieter on those concerns as Turkey has expanded its defense manufacturing industry and positioned itself as a counterweight to Russian influence on NATO’s southeastern flank.

That military identity was on full display when Trump arrived at Turkey’s 1,100-room presidential palace in Ankara on Tuesday. He was escorted by 100 horsemen and greeted by the ceremonial guard, along with guardsmen dressed as historical Ottoman soldiers, a first for the palace. As Trump and Erdogan walked together, Turkish jets flew overhead trailing red, white and blue contrails.

Iran war economic impact

Gulf companies face earnings test as iran war reshapes regional economy

July 9, 2026 No Comments

Gulf companies begin reporting second-quarter earnings this week, offering the first detailed look at how four months of war with Iran have reshaped the region’s economy.

Banks and real estate face the steepest exposure, worsened by the conflict’s effect on inflation and interest rates. Telecoms have fared better, protected by long-term contracts and steady demand. Energy companies dealt with supply disruptions from the war but also saw potential gains from price swings tied to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

“The second quarter is going to reveal the real impact of the war,” said Tariq Qaqish, deputy CEO at advisory firm FH Capital. He noted that the first quarter, only partly affected by a conflict that began at the end of February, showed just the initial hit to sectors like tourism and aviation.

Geography determines winners and losers

Regional economies built around hydrocarbons are diverging sharply based on how dependent they are on the Strait of Hormuz, the only sea route into the Gulf.

Saudi Arabia, which also operates oil terminals on the Red Sea, is projected to grow 2.1% this year, according to HSBC forecasts. Oman’s stock index, sitting outside the strait, has outperformed regional peers. The UAE, Qatar and Kuwait, all reliant on the shipping channel, are set to contract.

Salman Ahmed, Fidelity International’s global head of macro and strategic asset allocation, said the region’s risk premium is likely to persist as a peace deal comes under renewed threat from fresh strikes, pointing to Iran’s leverage over the strait. On Wednesday, President Donald Trump said an interim agreement to end the war was over after Iran carried out new attacks on U.S. bases in the Gulf.

“A further confidence shock would exacerbate risk for companies exposed to consumer and service demand,” S&P Global Ratings analysts said.

Energy and telecoms hold steady

Oil and gas earnings are expected to stay strong, with elevated prices partly offsetting volumes lost to damage and disruption. HSBC raised its Brent forecast to $95 a barrel for 2026 and now estimates second-quarter average prices of $114.

Saudi Arabia kept exports flowing through the Red Sea, but the UAE’s gas sector took a hit. ADNOC Gas forecast a roughly 19% year-on-year decline in domestic gas sales, tied to an incident at one of its plants.

Regional telecom operators have proved resilient, including Saudi Arabia’s STC and Mobily and the UAE’s e&.

The consumer sector, spanning retail and tourism, has shown clear signs of disruption, though increased at-home spending has offset some losses. Shares in Dubai food delivery firm Talabat have climbed more than 60% over the past three months. Gulf airline flight volumes have returned to near-normal levels.

Banks and real estate under pressure

Gulf banks are expected to post single-digit declines in second-quarter profits compared with the prior three months, said Elena Sanchez-Cabezudo, head of financials equity research at EFG Hermes. She pointed to weaker fee income from reduced trade finance activity and lower credit card spending on international travel.

Sanchez-Cabezudo said part of the decline reflects a strong January and February, before a full quarter of war weighed on the second-quarter numbers. She added that lenders have remained resilient thanks to abundant sector liquidity.

S&P Global Ratings described regional lenders as having stable funding profiles, but said war-related uncertainty is likely to slow their growth. Some UAE banks have raised interest rates for new savers in an effort to attract deposits.

UAE property markets, after years of growth, are now showing strain. Analysts have flagged risks to expatriate inflows and tourism-linked demand if tensions continue. Some developers have cut or delayed dividend payouts to preserve liquidity.

Citi said in a note that Dubai residential sales in the second quarter fell significantly below pre-conflict levels, with a milder decline in Abu Dhabi. Major developers in the region include Emaar Properties and Aldar Properties.

Francesc Balcells, chief investment officer for emerging market debt at FIM Partners, struck a more optimistic tone. He said some real estate developers are lagging, but regional credit spreads, the premiums investors demand to hold bonds, have returned close to normal levels. “It is just an issue of balance sheets,” he said. “These guys have very strong balance sheets, so they can withstand big shocks like this.”

Iran Kuwait Bahrain attacks

Fresh uS strikes on iran spark iranian retaliation against kuwait and bahrain

July 9, 2026 No Comments

U.S. forces struck Iran again on Wednesday, saying the strikes were meant to keep the Strait of Hormuz open to shipping. The attacks triggered Iranian retaliation against Kuwait and Bahrain, pushing the conflict further from any resolution.

The latest round of U.S. strikes came in response to Tuesday’s assault on three cargo ships passing through the strait. The action followed comments from President Donald Trump, who said hours earlier that he believed an interim ceasefire with Iran was finished.

“U.S. Central Command forces have started conducting additional strikes against Iran to further degrade their ability to threaten freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz,” CENTCOM, the U.S. military’s Middle East command, wrote on X. “The United States is holding Iran accountable for recent unjustified aggression against commercial shipping and civilian crews freely navigating a vital international waterway.”

The strikes hit several cities along Iran’s southern coast and knocked out power in some areas. Iran answered with a second consecutive day of attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain, both hosts to U.S. military bases in the region.

Kuwait’s Defense Ministry said it intercepted missiles and drones fired at its territory. Qatar briefly raised an “elevated security threat” alert before standing it down.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, told Reuters that Wednesday’s strikes on Iran would exceed Tuesday’s in number. Trump addressed the escalation directly on Truth Social: “This is in retribution for yesterday’s bombing of ships by Iran. If it happens again, it will get much worse!”

Before the war, a fifth of global oil supplies moved through the Strait of Hormuz. Control over that passage has handed Tehran significant leverage, letting it hold the world’s most powerful military to a stalemate. Iran has not claimed responsibility for the ship attacks, though analysts say Tehran has used similar actions in the past to strengthen its position at the negotiating table.

Iran’s top negotiator, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, posted a warning of his own on X: “The U.S. has yet to learn that bullying and breaking its commitments no longer come without a cost. Let me be clear: If you strike, you will be struck back.” He added, “The Strait of Hormuz will be reopened only under Iranian arrangements, not through U.S. threats.”

The exchange of strikes has clouded prospects for turning a memorandum of understanding signed June 17 into a lasting deal to end the war, which began with U.S.-Israeli attacks on Iran on February 28.

Speaking to reporters before a NATO summit in Turkey on Wednesday, Trump was asked whether the memorandum was dead. “It’s a very interesting question. To me, I think it’s over. I don’t want to deal with them,” he said. He later added, “If we make a deal with Iran I’m not sure that will stick. I found them to be very dishonourable people.”

Trump has threatened to escalate military action before and then pulled back. On Wednesday he said he doubted the conflict would return to full-scale war, though he acknowledged it remained unclear whether talks on a permanent deal would continue. “Anything that happens is going to be over very quickly,” he said, “and will only make it safer, including for oil.”

Oil prices climbed after Wednesday’s strikes. Brent crude futures rose about 1% to $78.80 a barrel by 0054 GMT, still far below the late-April peak of more than $120 a barrel.

Strikes concentrate on southern coast

Iranian media reported that Wednesday’s strikes hit locations from the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman. Bandar Abbas, home to Iran’s largest port along with major navy and Revolutionary Guards facilities, was among the targets. Konarak and Chabahar, two coastal cities near Iran’s border with Pakistan, were also hit.

Power had been restored to most of Chabahar after the strikes cut electricity in parts of the city, the Mehr news agency reported, citing the local utility. Iranian media also reported a strike on a maritime traffic control tower in Chabahar.

A firefighter died in a strike on the airport in Iranshahr, in southeastern Iran, according to state media. In the north, a U.S. attack struck a railway bridge near the town of Aqqala, Press TV reported.

Before Wednesday’s new strikes, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said earlier U.S. attacks had already violated the memorandum of understanding. He pointed to a clause stating the agreement “emphasizes the Islamic Republic of Iran’s responsibility in determining arrangements for the safe passage of ships through the Strait of Hormuz.”

A spokesperson for parliament’s National Security Commission said Iran was weighing several retaliatory options, including withdrawal from the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, a change to Iran’s nuclear doctrine, and closure of the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, another major shipping route at the mouth of the Red Sea.

Iran’s mission to the United Nations also sent a letter to the Security Council on Wednesday accusing the United States of a “blatant violation of the Charter of the United Nations and its international obligations.” The letter said the U.S. strikes broke the terms of the memorandum signed by the two countries.

Tanzania foreign exchange reserves

tanzania central bank buys 28 tons of gold to shore up reserves, shilling

July 8, 2026 No Comments

Tanzania’s central bank has bought about 28 metric tons of gold over the past 18 months to bolster its international reserves and support the shilling currency, Governor Emmanuel Tutuba said.

Tutuba was quoted in a finance ministry statement as saying the purchased gold was worth $3.68 billion at current prices. The statement was published on Wednesday, but Tutuba made the comments a day earlier at an International Monetary Fund-World Bank meeting in Gambia.

gold purchases tied to reserve strategy

The Bank of Tanzania has been buying gold for its reserves since about 2023. In September 2024, Tanzania’s mining regulator ordered all mining firms and traders exporting gold to allocate at least 20% of the commodity for sale to the central bank.

Tanzania is one of Africa’s top 10 gold producers. Tutuba said the gold purchase programme had resulted in more than 4,000 new accounts opened at financial institutions by mineral traders and small-scale miners.

At last week’s interest rate announcement, Tutuba said the East African country had around $6 billion of reserves, equivalent to 4.3 months of imports.

Tutuba made his remarks during a panel discussion on central bank gold operations, held on the sidelines of the 2026 African Caucus meeting of the World Bank Group and the IMF in Banjul, Gambia. The gathering brought together representatives from 54 African countries to discuss economic and financial issues affecting the continent. Tanzania’s delegation to the meeting was led by Finance Minister Ambassador Khamis Mussa Omar, and included Zanzibar’s Minister for Finance and Planning, Juma Malik Akil, along with Tutuba himself. Crypto Briefing

how the buying programme works

The mechanics of the purchase programme have played a role in its early results. Tutuba said the central bank pays gold miners and traders within 24 hours of completing a transaction, using the London gold market price of the day, an approach he said has given sellers a strong incentive to deal directly with the Bank of Tanzania rather than export through other channels. Crypto Briefing

The programme also differs from how many central banks typically build gold reserves. Rather than buying gold in foreign currency on international markets, the Bank of Tanzania purchases locally produced gold and pays for it in Tanzanian shillings. Tutuba has described the effort as a way to link the country’s natural resource wealth to its monetary system and reduce dependence on external reserve channels.

a programme with a history

Tanzania’s push to stockpile gold is not new. The Bank of Tanzania built gold reserves once before, starting in 1990, but halted the practice in 2002 as reserve management priorities shifted. Groundwork for the current restart dates back to 2021, when President Samia Suluhu Hassan proposed supporting value addition in the mining sector, the same year a gold refinery opened in the Mwanza region.

By early June, the total had already climbed close to its current level. Tutuba told a gathering marking the central bank’s 60th anniversary in Dar es Salaam on June 12 that the programme had accumulated 27.5 metric tonnes of gold reserves as of June 10, a batch he valued at roughly 10 trillion Tanzanian shillings at the time. President Samia Suluhu Hassan and other senior government and financial sector officials attended that anniversary event at the Julius Nyerere International Convention Centre.

diversifying away from the dollar

Tanzania’s approach mirrors a pattern seen at other central banks around the world. The purchases represent a shift in the composition of the country’s reserves, which have traditionally been dominated by dollar-denominated assets, and come amid a broader trend of central banks worldwide increasing their gold holdings. Analysts tracking the gold market have said the strategy fits a pattern also seen among central banks in China and India, as monetary authorities in several countries look to hold less of their reserves in dollars.

formalizing the mining sector

Beyond the reserve-building goal, officials have pointed to a second effect of the programme: pulling more small-scale miners and traders into the formal financial system. Tutuba said the gold purchasing programme has let Tanzania diversify its reserve assets while also promoting the formalization of the mining sector and advancing financial inclusion, particularly among small-scale miners and traders.

That formalization push has drawn attention from economists who study the programme. Supporters argue the scheme could spur further formalization of the gold sector, improve transparency across the supply chain and strengthen the connection between Tanzania’s mineral resources and its economic goals. Some observers have urged the central bank to regularly publish details on its gold purchases, including volumes bought and pricing methods, in line with standard practice among central banks elsewhere.

risks tied to gold prices

Economists broadly view the programme as a net positive for Tanzania’s financial security, though they caution its value will move with global gold prices. Third-party specialists have warned that the valuation of the reserves will rise and fall with international commodity prices, and that the programme’s long-term performance depends on how gold prices move, how the reserves are managed and how transparently the process is run.

Tanzania’s position as a major gold producer gives the strategy a natural resource base to draw from. The country is turning that natural resource wealth into strategic reserve assets as a way to limit its exposure to foreign economic shocks, even though its total holdings remain well below those of the world’s largest gold-holding nations.

broader economic goals

Tutuba has framed the programme as serving multiple objectives beyond reserve accumulation. He said the initiative aims to strengthen foreign exchange reserves, support the value of the Tanzanian shilling, enhance financial sector stability and promote economic growth.

Government officials have echoed that framing in public remarks tied to the programme’s milestones. Tutuba has said the gold buying effort reflects strengthened cooperation with stakeholders in the mining sector and has significantly improved Tanzania’s external buffers, contributing to broader macroeconomic stability.

With reserves standing at around $6 billion, equivalent to 4.3 months of imports, the gold holdings now make up a meaningful share of Tanzania’s overall buffer against external shocks. How that balance shifts going forward will depend on both the pace of future purchases and the direction of global gold prices, factors that remain outside the central bank’s control even as it continues building out the domestic side of the programme.

Egypt Argentina VAR controversy

egypt slams var after argentina comeback ends world cup run

July 8, 2026 No Comments

The Egyptian Football Association criticized refereeing decisions Wednesday in Egypt’s 3-2 World Cup round-of-16 defeat to Argentina, saying it wouldn’t stay silent over what it called improper use of the Video Assistant Referee system.

Egypt looked set for one of the tournament’s biggest upsets when they led defending champions Argentina 2-0 with 11 minutes left on Tuesday, only to concede three late goals and exit the competition.

The EFA said several decisions during the match directly affected the outcome. “Several key incidents raised serious concerns and left profound questions about the consistency and fairness of decisions that directly influenced the course of the game,” the federation said in a statement posted on social media.

“A number of football experts and specialist analysts, both locally and internationally, have highlighted controversial and influential refereeing incidents during the match. This underlines the importance of maintaining the highest standards of integrity, fairness, and transparency in match officiating, particularly in a competition of the stature and significance of the FIFA World Cup 2026.”

Much of the controversy centered on a goal by Egypt’s Mostafa Zico in the 62nd minute that would have doubled his side’s lead. The goal was disallowed after a VAR review found a foul by an Egyptian player in the buildup.

Egypt’s frustration grew late in the match when appeals for a penalty after Hamdy Fathy went down under a challenge were waved away. Argentina then went upfield and scored the winner in the 92nd minute.

Coach Hossam Hassan and captain Mohamed Salah both voiced disappointment after the match. Several former players and television pundits also questioned the officiating.

“Surely, this is not within VAR’s realm to review this,” former England goalkeeper Rob Green said on Fox’s broadcast of the match, referring to the foul that led to Zico’s goal being disallowed. “It’s a full length of the pitch away.”

Former England captain Alan Shearer also criticized the decision-making process. “Either both are fouls or neither is. But they told us they won’t re-referee,” the Premier League’s all-time leading scorer wrote on social media.

Former Arsenal striker Ian Wright pointed to another incident involving Salah. “If you’re going to pull it back for Argentina on the edge of the box to disallow a goal, you have to pull it back for this one with Mo Salah. He’s been caught. Whatever we say, it might be minimal, he’s been caught and then they go up the other end,” Wright said on ITV.

Former Liverpool defender Jamie Carragher questioned the consistency of VAR’s application as well. “If that was in the Premier League, LaLiga or Serie A, it would have been a goal even after VAR review,” he said.

According to media reports, EFA President Hany Abo Rida has submitted an official complaint against French referee Francois Letexier and his assistants. FIFA has not yet responded to a Reuters request for comment.

Egypt’s exit ends the country’s run in the tournament after a group stage performance that had raised expectations among fans back home. The 2-0 lead they built against Argentina had teams and analysts across the tournament taking notice, with pundits pointing to Egypt’s defensive organization and Salah’s movement up front as key factors in the early advantage.

Argentina’s comeback, meanwhile, keeps alive their bid to defend the title they won in 2022. The defending champions now advance to face the winner of another round-of-16 matchup, though attention in the immediate aftermath has focused almost entirely on the officiating rather than Argentina’s late surge.

The complaint from the EFA adds to a broader conversation around VAR’s role at this World Cup, with multiple pundits across different broadcasters independently raising concerns about consistency in how the system has been applied. Carragher’s comparison to decisions in Europe’s top domestic leagues suggests the debate extends beyond this single match to how VAR standards are applied differently across competitions.

FIFA has not indicated whether it will review the EFA’s complaint or respond to the criticism from Green, Shearer, Wright and Carragher. The organization’s silence so far leaves open the question of whether any of the disputed calls will be formally revisited.

Trump Britain RAF Mildenhall

trump to fly older air force one to britain, sidelining new qatari jet

July 8, 2026 No Comments

President Trump said Wednesday he will fly from Turkey to Britain on an older Air Force One aircraft instead of the new Boeing 747 gifted by Qatar, a switch that puts fresh attention on the retrofitted jet he introduced just weeks earlier as his future presidential plane.

The decision comes after months of scrutiny over the luxury aircraft, which was meant to serve as a temporary stand-in while Boeing works through years of delays on the next generation of Air Force One planes. Critics have raised questions about the cost of retrofitting the Qatari jet, the security risks tied to rushing it into service, and the speed at which the conversion was completed.

Trump explained the switch on Truth Social, saying he would fly the older aircraft “for old time’s sake” on the trip to RAF Mildenhall in Britain. The new plane will visit the same base separately so U.S. service members stationed there can tour it.

The Qatari jet has faced scrutiny since Trump accepted it as a gift. Turning the aircraft into a functioning Air Force One required a range of security upgrades, according to experts who have tracked the process. Engineers had to install communications systems designed to prevent eavesdropping and add missile defense capabilities, work that typically takes years on a presidential aircraft.

Democratic lawmakers have put the cost of the conversion at more than $1 billion and warned about the security implications of accepting a foreign government’s jet for presidential use. Some experts have also raised concerns that the speed of the retrofit could mean the plane falls short of the protections built into the current Air Force One fleet. The upgrades moved quickly enough that questions remain about whether every standard safeguard was fully implemented before the aircraft entered service.

A second aircraft capable of serving as Air Force One travels on standby during presidential trips, a longstanding practice regardless of which primary plane is in use.

The Air Force pushed to get the Qatari jet ready on an accelerated timeline, and that effort meant skipping some modifications originally planned for the next-generation presidential aircraft. Officials chose to deliver an interim version sooner rather than wait for every feature envisioned in the original design.

Air Force Secretary Troy Meink has defended the process, saying the service “meticulously evaluated every requirement” while working to speed up delivery. Officials maintain the aircraft still meets the standards expected of a presidential plane, even with the faster timeline.

The Qatari jet is functioning as a bridge aircraft while Boeing continues work on two purpose-built 747-8s under a $3.9 billion fixed-price contract the company signed in 2018. That program has fallen four years behind its original schedule, and delivery of the finished planes isn’t expected until mid-2028.

The delay raises the possibility that Trump could finish his term without ever flying on a new, U.S.-built Air Force One. His term ends in January 2029, less than a year after Boeing’s revised delivery target.

Costs on the Boeing program have climbed as the delays have stretched on. The company’s total costs now exceed $5 billion, and Boeing has booked billions of dollars in charges tied to the project as it works to bring the planes to completion.

The gap between the contract’s original price and the program’s actual costs illustrates how far the effort has strayed from its initial terms. Boeing agreed to the fixed-price structure in 2018 under different leadership and different production timelines, and the company has absorbed much of the financial fallout from the delays rather than passing the added costs on to the government.

For now, the Qatari jet remains available to Trump even as he opts for the older aircraft on this particular trip. The choice to use the older plane for the Britain flight doesn’t signal that the Qatari jet is being sidelined, based on Trump’s own framing of the decision as a one-off nod to the past rather than a shift away from the new aircraft.

The dynamic underscores the unusual position the administration finds itself in: operating a foreign-donated aircraft as a stopgap while the domestically built replacement remains years away, all while facing continued questions from lawmakers about the wisdom of accepting the gift in the first place.

Whether the scrutiny over the Qatari jet’s security upgrades leads to further changes in how the aircraft is used remains to be seen. Officials have stood by the retrofit process so far, and there’s no indication the administration plans to slow down its use of the aircraft going forward.

The broader question of when Trump will have a purpose-built American aircraft at his disposal still hinges on Boeing’s ability to hit its 2028 target, a deadline the company has already missed once. Given the program’s history of delays, further slippage would extend the period in which the administration relies on either the older Air Force One fleet or the Qatari-donated jet to fulfill presidential travel needs.

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