Senior aides to President Donald Trump are working to prevent the Iran war from escalating before November’s midterm elections, according to four people familiar with internal discussions. The strategy is already under pressure after the U.S. and Iran traded fresh strikes overnight.
White House officials plan to reassess more aggressive military options after the November 3 vote, the sources said. They spoke on condition of anonymity to describe internal deliberations. A full return to large-scale conflict remains uncertain. The U.S. military said its most recent strikes were retaliation for attacks on American forces and maritime traffic in the region.
For now, the administration wants to lean on economic pressure rather than military force, hoping sanctions can secure concessions that months of strikes have not. “We are keeping the pressure on Iran,” one White House official said. “But November is a priority.”
Political Calculations Behind the Pause
Containing the conflict until the midterms would keep an unpopular war out of the headlines while Republicans defend narrow majorities in the House and Senate, three White House officials among the sources said. A late-August Reuters/Ipsos poll found only 31% of Americans approve of the war, against 63% who disapprove. Voters have singled out high gas prices as a particular frustration.
A slower pace would also give the military time to rebuild depleted munitions stockpiles, the sources said.
But the plan is getting harder to hold. The conflict is quieter than it was in the spring or during a summer flare-up, yet both sides have exchanged strikes in recent days. Analysts expect Iran’s leadership, which has faced little internal unrest despite months of disrupting shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, to keep hitting U.S. and allied Gulf targets periodically, including military bases, vessels and energy infrastructure. That puts pressure on Washington to respond, raising the risk of a cycle that pulls both countries back into full-scale fighting regardless of the administration’s intentions.
Over the weekend, the U.S. struck rocket launchers on Iran’s Larak Island. Iran responded by firing missiles toward Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. On Tuesday, the U.S. hit additional targets near the Strait of Hormuz in the largest exchange since July, killing Iranian military personnel and civilians.
Barbara Leaf, who served as the State Department’s top Middle East official under President Joe Biden, said Iran has reason to keep disrupting the fragile status quo. “The regime has every incentive to disrupt the ‘calm,’ which is no real calm, after all, since the administration’s explicit aim is to increase economic pressure massively on Iran,” she said.
Trump’s Own Unpredictability
Trump’s approval rating has dropped from 40% to 33% since the war began, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling. Sources said he currently opposes escalation but has a track record of shifting positions quickly.
On Tuesday, Trump threatened a harder response if Iran retaliates for the latest U.S. strikes. “If the failed Nation of Iran retaliates for this very justified attack, they will be hit again at a much harder and higher level, but it will not be the biggest attack of them all, that is waiting in the wings,” he wrote on Truth Social.
Logistics Catching Up With Strategy
Trump has said publicly that the midterms are not shaping his Iran strategy. But seven months into the war, his administration is increasingly boxed in by both logistics and politics. “The timetable has changed,” one senior White House official said. Another put it more bluntly: “The calendar is driving Iran.”
Reuters reported in August that the military had used nearly all of its stock of certain precision missiles. The Washington Post reported Sunday that the service chiefs of the Army, Navy and Air Force warned Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth in writing that continuing the war at its current pace was unsustainable and would weaken military readiness elsewhere. The Pentagon disputed any shortfall, saying the military has “everything it needs to execute” its mission.
White House spokeswoman Olivia Wales defended the administration’s record. “President Trump has destroyed Iran’s military capabilities and is crippling what’s left of its abysmal economy with the most powerful naval blockade in world history and crushing sanctions,” she said. “The President will continue to advance America’s interests at home and abroad and will never allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
Gulf allies, some of whom initially pushed for a harder line against Iran, urged the White House to de-escalate after a round of attacks in late July, regional diplomats said. Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio are among the senior aides who support keeping the conflict relatively quiet through November, two White House officials said.
Sanctions Strategy Faces Its Own Limits
In recent weeks, the administration has leaned harder into economic isolation, threatening steep sanctions against countries that trade with Iran while maintaining its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. But officials and analysts say the approach has limits. Iran has operated under layers of U.S. and international sanctions for decades without those measures forcing a change in leadership behavior.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Sunday that the pressure campaign itself could push Iran toward military retaliation, meaning the economic strategy risks fueling the same escalation it is meant to avoid. Major economies including China have declined to join the U.S. isolation effort, raising doubts about how much impact the sanctions will ultimately have.
Alex Plitsas, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, said the sanctions are designed to compound pressure from the blockade and push Iran back to negotiations, an option the administration now views as preferable to further strikes. “Iran is concerned about it, but China has already indicated that it’s not willing to play ball, which calls into question how effective it will be,” he said.
