Americans vote on November 3 in congressional elections that will decide whether Republicans keep control of Washington for the last two years of Donald Trump’s second term. Fewer than four weeks remain, and the polls favor Democrats nationally. Several of the Senate races that decide control are close.
Voters will fill all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 seats in the Senate. They will also choose state officials in much of the country, including governors in California, Florida, Georgia and Michigan.
What the midterms are
Congress has two chambers, the House and the Senate, and together they write and pass federal laws that apply across the country. Elections happen every two years. The ones that fall in the middle of a president’s four-year term are called midterms.
Trump is not on the ballot. The result will still be read as a verdict on him, because it will show whether voters want to give him a Congress that backs his plans or one that blocks them.
Who is being elected
Members of the House serve two-year terms, so every seat is up every election. The House is where most bills are introduced and debated.
Senators serve six years, and about a third of the chamber is elected at each midterm. This year’s 35 seats are 33 regular contests and two special elections for the seats vacated by Marco Rubio and J.D. Vance, according to Ballotpedia. The Senate votes on bills passed by the House and approves or rejects presidential nominees.
The state of play in Congress
Republicans run both chambers today, but the margins are thin.
In the House, the BBC reports Republicans hold 218 seats, the minimum needed for a majority, plus one independent who votes with them. Counts of the exact split differ slightly between sources because of vacancies, so the safest summary is that a few seats decide control.
In the Senate, Republicans hold 53 of 100 seats. Democrats need to win 51 to take control. A 50-50 tie would go to the vice president, currently a Republican, who casts the deciding vote. Ballotpedia says that means Democrats need a net gain of four seats.
Democrats are defending Georgia and Michigan, two states Trump won in 2024. Republicans are defending Maine, which Kamala Harris won.
What voters care about most
Cost of living comes first. Voters are paying more for fuel, groceries, housing and healthcare, and four in 10 Iowa voters told a Fox News poll in late September that their families are falling behind. About six in 10 in that poll called cost of living extremely important to their Senate vote.
Inflation is still above the level the Federal Reserve targets. The BBC links part of that to the war the United States and Israel started with Iran in February. Democrats say Trump’s tariffs have pushed prices up too.
Silver Bulletin, a polling analysis site, rates Trump’s handling of the economy at a net negative 32 points. On inflation the figure is a net negative 46 points.
Immigration is the other major issue, and it favors Republicans more than the economy does. They say Trump delivered on a 2024 pledge by tightening the border and launching a broad crackdown on illegal immigration. The crackdown has drawn criticism for its tactics. In Iowa, voters who rank immigration first lean toward the Republican candidate.
Artificial intelligence has moved up the list in recent weeks. Senior figures in both parties say the technology needs regulation. Trump has rejected the idea of laws to control its development, which puts him at odds with lawmakers in his own party. In the Fox News Iowa poll, 27% of voters called AI extremely important.
What the polls show
Trump began his second term with an approval rating just above 50%, according to Silver Bulletin. In early October it was about 37%, and more than 60% of Americans disapproved. An NBC News average put the figures at 39% approve and 59% disapprove in late September.
On the generic congressional ballot, which asks voters which party they will support without naming candidates, NBC’s average of likely voters showed Democrats ahead 52% to 43%. Independent voters lean Democratic by about 16 points, down from roughly 20 points in spring.
History points the same direction. Voters often turn against the president’s party at midterms.
National numbers do not decide individual seats, though. Most districts and states lean heavily toward one party, and the fight is concentrated in a small number. The BBC’s US partner CBS News has identified ten Senate races and 42 House races to watch. The Senate list includes Iowa and New Hampshire. The House list includes seats in Arizona and Ohio.
The Iowa test
Iowa shows how much the national mood has changed. Trump won the state with nearly 56% of the vote in 2024, and Iowa has not sent a Democrat to the Senate in 18 years, since Tom Harkin won his final term.
The Fox News poll, conducted September 24 to 28, found Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson, 49% to 47% among likely voters. That gap sits inside the poll’s margin of error of three points. Among all registered voters, Turek led 50% to 46%, and that result has not moved since June.
Turek is a state representative. Hinson is a member of the US House and won the Republican nomination with Trump’s endorsement. Voters rate Turek more favorably, 48% to 40%. Hinson’s numbers are 42% favorable and 50% unfavorable.
Fifty-two percent of voters in the poll said Hinson is too close to Trump. Forty-three percent said Turek is too liberal. Trump’s approval in Iowa stands at 42%, with 57% disapproving.
A Republican pollster on the survey still sees an opening for Hinson. “Recent history and the state’s partisan makeup suggest Hinson can pull this out,” said Daron Shaw, who worked on the poll with a Democratic firm. The same poll has Democrat Rob Sand leading Republican Zach Lahn for governor, 53% to 44%.
The numbers that decide control
Count the seats and the math is tight for both sides.
In the Senate, Republicans can lose at most two seats and still hold the majority, because a 50-50 split goes to the Republican vice president. Democrats need a net gain of four. Ballotpedia notes that eight senators, four from each party, are not seeking re-election, which leaves several seats without an incumbent on the ballot.
In the House, Ballotpedia says Democrats need a net gain of only three seats, and Republicans can lose no more than two. The same page counts 14 Democratic-held districts that Trump won in 2024 and nine Republican-held districts that Harris won. Those 23 seats sit in territory that backed the other party’s presidential candidate two years ago, and they are where a national swing turns into a change of control.
The Iowa poll gives a closer look at how a swing happens. Turek holds 96% of Democrats, while Hinson holds 87% of Republicans. Turek leads among independents by about two to one, and 10% of Republicans say they will vote for him. Voters backing Turek are also more firmly committed: 88% say their choice is settled, compared with 77% of Hinson’s supporters. A small gap in loyalty in a state this evenly split can decide the race.
Not every poll points the same way, and Iowa’s result will depend on turnout. The same Fox poll found Iowans split almost evenly on which party should control the Senate, 49% for Democrats and 48% for Republicans.
The fight over district maps
The House picture is harder to read this year because both parties redrew congressional districts in the middle of the decade, which is unusual. Normally maps change once every ten years, after the census.
Republicans moved first. Texas adopted a new map in 2025 that Republicans hoped would gain them up to five seats, according to the Associated Press. Missouri and North Carolina each drew maps aimed at one more Republican seat, and Ohio’s new map targeted two.
Democrats answered. California voters approved Proposition 50 on November 4, 2025. It replaced the map drawn by the state’s citizens commission with one drawn by Democrats, who hoped to gain up to five seats. Virginia Democrats started the process of amending the state constitution to allow their own redraw.
Lawsuits followed in several states, and the AP’s account is a snapshot from November 2025. Some of the details have probably changed since, so check the latest status of any individual district before relying on it. The broad point holds: the new lines make forecasts for the House less certain.
What a Democratic win would mean for Trump
If Democrats win the House, the Senate or both, Trump will struggle to pass new laws. Bills need approval from both chambers. His domestic agenda could stall, though he has already shown he can use executive power to act without help from Congress.
Control of a chamber also gives Democrats the power to set the agenda on the floor and to run committee investigations. The BBC lists corruption allegations, the new White House ballroom and the tactics of Immigration and Customs Enforcement as possible subjects.
Democrats are also divided on impeachment. Impeachment means Congress brings charges against a president, and it works as a political process, not a criminal one. Some in the party want to pursue it. Others want to avoid it. A Democratic majority would force that argument into the open.
If Republicans hold both chambers, Trump can keep moving his plans forward for the rest of his term. He has asked Republican voters to treat the election as if his name were on the ballot and to vote for him as an endorsement of what he has done.
What comes next for 2028
Trump cannot run for president a third time. Once the results are in, attention will turn to who might become the Republican nominee in 2028 and who might run against that person for the Democrats.
Commentators will also use the results to argue about how voters feel about the country’s direction under Trump. Both parties will claim a mandate, so the margins will matter. A Democratic win by a handful of House seats would read differently from a landslide, and a Republican hold with a smaller majority would read differently from a gain.
Nothing in the polls guarantees any outcome. Midterm turnout is lower than in presidential years, and the voters who show up on November 3 will decide it.
Sources
- BBC explainer on the US midterm elections (the text you supplied)
- Fox News Poll: Turek, Hinson in close Iowa Senate race
- IBTimes on NBC News and Silver Bulletin polling
- Ballotpedia: United States Congress elections, 2026
- Associated Press via Bangor Daily News: What’s next in the national redistricting fight


