Two years after Donald Trump staged a New Jersey press conference surrounded by grocery staples to attack inflation under Democrats, food prices are still climbing despite his promise to bring them down. The gap between that pledge and the current reality now threatens to become a liability for Republicans heading into November’s midterm elections.
Trump stood among tables piled with fruit, beef, cereal, milk, and other household staples at his Bedminster golf club on August 15, 2024, blaming the Biden administration for sharp increases in grocery costs. The event, which included charts displaying rising prices, targeted Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and centered on Trump’s core campaign promise: that he alone could tame inflation and lower the cost of living for American families.
Two years later, higher gasoline and grocery prices are squeezing household budgets and pushing the cost of living to the top of voters’ concerns. For the first time in nearly a decade, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows voters giving Democrats a slight edge over Republicans on economic stewardship.
A voter’s frustration at the checkout line
Sheila Carney, a 68-year-old Trump voter, punctuated her frustration with an expletive as she loaded $70 worth of groceries into her car outside a supermarket near Trump’s Bedminster club. The purchase was modest: some meat, detergent, and a 12-pack of iced tea.
For Carney, the receipt stood as proof that affordability concerns Trump has sometimes dismissed as a Democratic “hoax” remain a daily burden for many Americans. “This is real. He can say it’s not, but it is,” said Carney, a hospital administration assistant who has delayed retirement while helping pay off her son’s student loans. “He hasn’t brought anything down.”
A Reuters analysis of 26 grocery categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the same categories featured in Trump’s Bedminster display, found prices have risen 3.4% during the first 19 months of his second term. That pace is less than a quarter of what was recorded at the same point in Joe Biden’s term, but it still falls short of Trump’s pledge to lower prices outright, as surges in coffee, beef, and apples have outweighed declines in items like eggs and butter.
A White House official pointed to data released Wednesday showing that U.S. consumer prices barely increased in July from the month before, citing it as evidence that inflation is under control. “The July CPI report is further proof that President Trump’s long-term agenda is delivering: prescription drug and auto insurance costs continue to fall, real wages are rising, and beef prices have cooled while other household essentials like eggs, poultry, and dairy remain low,” the official said.
Republican enthusiasm wavers
Carney, a registered Republican, said high grocery and gasoline prices tied to the Iran war were among the reasons she has grown disillusioned enough to consider skipping the midterms entirely, a sentiment that echoes recent polling showing Republicans less enthusiastic about voting than Democrats this cycle.
Carney was one of 17 Republicans and independents Reuters interviewed in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, a battleground that includes Bedminster and where swing voters and turnout could decide the outcome. The race pits Republican incumbent Tom Kean against Democrat Rebecca Bennett, who has worked to capitalize on voter frustration over the cost of living.
More than half of those interviewed said they were either undecided or leaning toward Bennett. While grocery prices weighed heavily on many voters, complaints about Kean more often centered on his months-long disappearance from public view earlier this year, which he later attributed to depression.
Their views mirror those of other Trump supporters Reuters has interviewed in recent months, voters who continue to stand by the president but say financial pressures have dampened their enthusiasm for showing up in November. That ambivalence presents another challenge for Republicans and raises the stakes for the party’s get-out-the-vote efforts.
Francesco Trebbi, a public policy professor at the University of California, Berkeley, recently co-authored research finding that Trump drew stronger support in the 2024 election in counties where inflation outpaced income growth, eroding household purchasing power. With real wages rising only marginally and lagging broader economic growth, Trebbi said that pattern is likely to reverse in November.
“I expect the same anti-incumbent shift to happen in 2026, this time possibly weakening Republicans,” he said, describing grocery shopping as “psychologically salient” for voters. “Each time one does it, it is the equivalent of a campaign ad against the incumbent.”
Not all Republicans are convinced
Presidents have limited direct influence over inflation, which is driven by a range of factors and more directly addressed by the Federal Reserve. Many Republicans appear willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, even as his tariffs and the Iran war have contributed to rising prices.
Bonnie Chandler, 64, plans to vote for Kean, saying she believes some companies are keeping prices elevated deliberately to make Trump look bad. She also said the growing influence of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing left her unwilling to consider its candidates. “I’m going to vote Republican. I’m not a woke person. I’m not a communist. I’m not a socialist,” she said.
Lauren DeGirolamo, a 34-year-old Trump voter, said issues like education and border security matter more to her than grocery prices, which she believes have stabilized under Trump after steep increases during the Biden administration. “I feel grocery prices are pretty much at level with where they were during Biden. I know some of the key things that I look for, eggs, have gone down,” she said, adding that she plans to vote for Republican candidates in November.
According to BLS data, egg prices have fallen nearly 40% under Trump, reflecting a market correction after avian flu-driven shortages triggered a surge that began during Biden’s presidency. Eggs rank among six of the 26 tracked categories showing declines since 2025, alongside butter, bacon, and cooking fats and oils.
Most of the items Trump displayed at Bedminster, however, are now more expensive, some substantially so. Uncooked beef has jumped 19.2%, fresh fish and seafood 8.6%, apples 14%, and coffee nearly 23%.
A political liability with real stakes
A Reuters/Ipsos poll that concluded earlier this month found Trump’s net approval rating on his handling of the cost of living at negative 47%, down sharply from negative 6% at the start of his term. The issue ranks as his weakest by a wide margin, trailing his ratings on the broader economy at negative 35% and immigration at negative 16%.
Bennett told Reuters that if elected, she would work to undo Trump’s tariffs, rein in the Iran war, and restore food stamp benefits to help families struggling to afford groceries. The issue is personal for her, she said. “This is not an abstract concept to me,” said Bennett, a military veteran and married mother of two daughters. “For example, beef is very expensive, so we don’t buy beef anymore.”
Whether Kean, whose campaign did not respond to requests for comment, can hold his seat may depend on voters like Margaret Derkach, an 84-year-old who typically votes Republican but is now considering switching her vote if economic conditions don’t improve. “The cost of living, as far as homes, apartments and food, the necessities, they have gone up. It’s shocking, shocking,” Derkach said after shopping at discount grocer Aldi.
Though she said Trump “inherited a mess” from Biden, Derkach added that she remains undecided. “I have to see,” she said.
