U.S. and Iran Edge Closer to Peace Agreement as Negotiations Enter Final Stage

The Iran US nuclear talks have gone through one of the most turbulent stretches of any modern diplomatic process — swinging between cautious optimism, outright war, and a written agreement that collapsed within weeks of being signed. As of mid-September 2026, the ceasefire established by the Islamabad Memorandum has effectively broken down. After President Trump declared the agreement “over” in early July, fighting flared repeatedly through the summer, including a fresh round of US and Iranian strikes in the first two weeks of September. The IAEA’s Board of Governors has now adopted a resolution urging Iran to cooperate on nuclear inspections, and both sides continue trading strikes even as diplomats say a return to talks remains possible. Here’s how the talks got here, what was actually agreed to, and why the fighting resumed. How the Iran US Nuclear Talks Began The current round of diplomacy traces back to March 2025, when President Trump sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei proposing new negotiations, while warning of serious consequences if Iran refused. After initial hesitation, Iran agreed to indirect talks, and the first round was held in Muscat, Oman, in April 2025, led by US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. Several more rounds followed in Rome and Muscat over the following weeks, with both sides describing the Iran US nuclear talks as constructive even as sharp disagreements persisted over Iran’s uranium enrichment rights, its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, and the scope of sanctions relief. Trump’s team pushed for a complete end to Iranian enrichment, while Tehran insisted enrichment was a non-negotiable right. A 60-day deadline set by Trump passed without an agreement, and on June 13, 2025, Israel launched large-scale strikes on Iranian military and nuclear targets, triggering what became known as the Twelve-Day War. The United States subsequently struck Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan nuclear facilities directly. Talks collapsed, and Iran suspended cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) shortly afterward. The Path Back to the Table — and a Second War Diplomacy resumed in early 2026 following mass protests inside Iran, even as the US continued building up its military presence across the Middle East. But the reprieve was short-lived. On February 28, 2026, the United States and Israel launched a fresh round of large-scale strikes on Iran, marking the start of what’s now referred to as the 2026 Iran war. The strikes included the assassination of Ali Khamenei himself, along with senior security official Ali Larijani, who had been closely involved in the negotiations. Months of fighting, competing ultimatums, and stalled talks followed. Trump alternated between demanding what he called Iran’s unconditional surrender and expressing optimism that a deal was close — CNN later counted at least 38 separate occasions between March and June 2026 where Trump claimed an agreement was imminent. A brief two-week ceasefire announced on April 7 quickly ran into complications when Israel struck Lebanon the same day, with Iranian officials warning the truce couldn’t hold unless it extended to Lebanon as well. The Islamabad Memorandum The breakthrough — such as it was — came on June 17, 2026, when Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian remotely signed the Islamabad Memorandum, a framework agreement aimed at ending hostilities. Trump signed it during a dinner with French President Emmanuel Macron at the Palace of Versailles following the G7 summit, while Pezeshkian signed separately in Tehran. According to a summary from the UK House of Commons Library, the memorandum calls for a permanent halt to military operations on all fronts, including between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and states that Iran will not possess a nuclear weapon. It also outlines a roughly $300 billion reconstruction plan for Iran, a process for lifting sanctions, and a framework for IAEA inspection of Iran’s nuclear program and disposal of its enriched uranium stockpile — with the detailed terms of all three left to be worked out in follow-up talks during an initial 60-day window. The agreement was not universally welcomed. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly told Trump that Israel did not consider itself bound by the memorandum’s Lebanon provisions and would keep its forces in place. Inside Iran, hardliners criticized the deal, even as Khamenei’s son Mojtaba Khamenei publicly endorsed it despite what he described as reservations. The Ceasefire Collapses The 60-day window that followed the memorandum’s signing proved short-lived. Late in June 2026, Trump accused Iran of violating the truce by launching drone attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and US Central Command responded by striking Iranian missile and drone storage sites along with coastal radar stations. By early July, the situation deteriorated further. After Iran struck commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz to assert its claim over the waterway, Trump declared on July 8, 2026, that the Islamabad Memorandum was “over,” though he said negotiators could keep talking. Sustained fighting has continued on and off ever since, with US and Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation across the Gulf region. Hostilities briefly quieted for roughly a month in August 2026, but renewed strikes broke that calm at the end of the month. On September 1, a US strike reportedly hit a home hosting a wedding in Iran, killing several people, and Iran responded with missile and drone attacks across the region. By September 9, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard had struck a US base in Jordan and US Central Command said it had destroyed several Iranian oil tankers, even as Trump suggested on social media that the war could wind down after November’s US midterm elections. The Core Unresolved Issue in Iran US Nuclear Talks: Inspections Nearly three months after the memorandum was signed, the disagreement that keeps resurfacing is over IAEA access to Iran’s nuclear sites. Director-General Rafael Grossi has said the memorandum explicitly commits Iran to having its nuclear activities supervised by the agency, and that inspections of the bombed enrichment facilities are going to happen, regardless of the timeline. Iranian officials have pushed back, arguing that under the memorandum’s terms, questions about inspecting war-damaged sites can only be resolved as part of a final, comprehensive agreement — not before one exists. In practice, that dispute has meant the IAEA has been unable to visit Iran’s Fordow, Natanz, or Isfahan facilities since the strikes, and has only maintained access to unaffected sites like the Bushehr power plant. On September 9, 2026, the situation escalated from words to formal action: the IAEA Board of Governors adopted a resolution urging Iran to cooperate with the agency, following a special session where Grossi briefed the board on the continued lack of access and on monitoring equipment that Tehran has reportedly disabled. Iran is believed to be sitting on enough highly enriched uranium — some estimates put it near 400 kilograms — to produce material for as many as ten nuclear weapons should it choose to pursue that path, though both Iran and the IAEA maintain that no enrichment to weapons-grade levels has taken place. Sanctions Relief and Reconstruction Money The second major sticking point is money. The memorandum ties sanctions relief and the proposed $300 billion reconstruction package to progress on the nuclear file, but the sequencing has never been fully settled: Iran wants tangible economic relief and restored banking access before making further nuclear concessions, while the US has generally wanted verified compliance first. Reports throughout the summer also suggested the US was weighing whether some of Iran’s frozen assets — estimated in different reports at between $24 billion and $25 billion — could be released or redirected toward reconstruction costs tied to war damage, adding another layer of complexity to the financial side of the deal. Other Sticking Points A handful of other issues continue to complicate the picture: Missile program: Iran has repeatedly said its ballistic missile capabilities are not on the table for negotiation, a position reaffirmed by President Pezeshkian, while US lawmakers and Gulf allies have pushed for missile limits to be included in any lasting deal. Lebanon and Hezbollah: Despite the memorandum’s language on ending hostilities on all fronts, Israel has maintained it isn’t bound by the Lebanon provisions, leaving that piece of the wider settlement effectively unresolved. Domestic politics in both countries: Polling has shown deep skepticism on both sides — a majority of Americans in some surveys expressed low confidence in any nuclear deal with Iran, while inside Iran, economic hardship tied to the conflict has fueled public frustration and calls for political change. What’s at Stake The stakes extend well beyond the two countries directly involved. IAEA officials have warned that an Iranian nuclear weapon could trigger wider proliferation across the Middle East, as other regional powers move to acquire similar capabilities in response. A verified, lasting agreement would also determine whether the Strait of Hormuz — a critical corridor for global oil shipping — remains fully open, and whether the broader web of conflicts touching Lebanon, the Gulf, and Iran’s regional proxies can be meaningfully de-escalated. Where the Iran US Nuclear Talks Stand Now As of mid-September 2026, the Islamabad Memorandum is no longer functioning as an active ceasefire, even though Iran has publicly called for a return to its terms. Fighting between the US, Israel, and Iran has continued intermittently for more than six months, spiking global oil prices and creating political pressure on the Trump administration ahead of the midterms. On the nuclear inspections front, the IAEA Board’s September 9 resolution marks a formal step up in pressure on Iran, though it stops short of resolving the underlying access dispute. Sanctions relief and the proposed reconstruction package remain tied up in the same sequencing dispute that has stalled progress since June, and the missile and Lebanon issues remain outside the framework entirely. Given how many previous breakthroughs in this process have unraveled, any further progress will likely continue to arrive in small, contested steps — if it arrives at all — rather than in a single clean resolution.

Few bilateral relationships have shifted as dramatically as the one between Iran and the United States. Iran US relations history helps explain why the two countries have spent more than four decades as adversaries after once being close allies. From early diplomatic ties in the 19th century to a CIA-backed coup, a revolution, a hostage crisis, and a fractured nuclear agreement, this timeline traces the key events that continue to shape Iran-US relations today. For a broader overview of the topic, see this guide to Iran-US relations. Iran US Relations History: The Early Years Formal diplomatic contact between the United States and Iran, then known internationally as Persia, dates back to the late 19th century. The two countries signed a Treaty of Amity in 1856, and the United States opened a legation in Tehran in 1883. For decades, the relationship was distant but generally cordial, since the US had no colonial history in the region, unlike Britain and Russia, which competed for influence over Persian oil, trade routes, and territory. In the early 20th century, American advisers occasionally assisted Iran with financial and administrative reforms. Iran’s official name changed from Persia to Iran in 1935. Relations remained modest until the mid-20th century, when oil, Cold War politics, and rising nationalism transformed the relationship into one of far greater strategic importance. The 1953 Iranian Coup and Its Impact One of the most consequential episodes in the history of US-Iran relations occurred in 1953. Prime Minister Mohammad Mossadegh, who had nationalized Iran’s British-controlled oil industry in 1951, became a target of British and American intelligence services. Britain, which had lost access to Iranian oil revenue, lobbied Washington to help remove him, framing the dispute partly in Cold War terms as a way to prevent Soviet influence in Iran. Declassified cables and reports on the operation are now available through the U.S. State Department’s Office of the Historian. In August 1953, a covert operation coordinated by the American CIA and British intelligence contributed to Mossadegh’s overthrow. Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, who had briefly fled the country, returned and consolidated power with US and British support. The 1953 coup became a defining grievance for many Iranians. It is frequently cited as a key reason for the deep distrust of the United States that later fueled the 1979 revolution, and it remains a central reference point in Iran US relations history. US-Iran Relations Under the Shah Following the coup, the United States and Iran developed a close strategic partnership that lasted more than two decades. The Shah positioned Iran as a reliable Western ally in the Middle East during the Cold War, and Washington in turn supported his government politically, economically, and militarily. Key features of this period included: Military cooperation: Iran purchased large quantities of American weapons and received US military training and advisers. Economic ties: American companies invested in Iran’s oil sector and broader economy, and Iran used oil revenue to fund rapid modernization programs. Political support: US administrations largely overlooked human rights concerns tied to the Shah’s secret police, SAVAK, in exchange for Iran’s role as a regional counterweight to Soviet influence. This close alignment made Iran one of the closest US allies in the Middle East by the 1970s, but it also deepened resentment among Iranians who viewed the Shah’s government as beholden to Washington. The 1979 Iranian Revolution By the late 1970s, opposition to the Shah’s rule had grown across multiple segments of Iranian society, including religious leaders, students, and secular nationalists, who objected to political repression, economic inequality, and perceived foreign interference. Mass protests intensified through 1978, and the Shah left Iran in January 1979. Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a Shia religious leader who had spent years in exile, returned to Iran in February 1979 and became the leading figure of the revolution. An Islamic Republic was declared soon after, replacing the monarchy with a system based on religious governance. The revolution fundamentally altered Iran-US relations. The new Iranian leadership viewed the United States as having propped up the Shah and interfered in Iran’s internal affairs, particularly by referencing the events of 1953. Anti-American sentiment became a defining feature of the new government’s rhetoric and policy. The Iran Hostage Crisis Tensions escalated sharply in November 1979, when Iranian students supportive of the revolution seized the US Embassy in Tehran, taking American diplomats and staff hostage. The immediate trigger was the Carter administration’s decision to allow the exiled Shah into the United States for medical treatment. The Iran hostage crisis lasted 444 days, from November 4, 1979, until January 20, 1981. During this period: The United States imposed economic sanctions and froze Iranian assets. Diplomatic efforts to negotiate a release repeatedly stalled. In April 1980, a US military rescue mission, Operation Eagle Claw, failed after equipment malfunctions and a fatal collision in the Iranian desert, resulting in the deaths of eight American service members. The hostages were finally released on January 20, 1981, minutes after Ronald Reagan was inaugurated as president, following negotiations mediated by Algeria. The crisis had a lasting effect on American public opinion toward Iran and cemented a period of open hostility between the two governments. Iran-US Relations After 1980 The United States formally severed diplomatic relations with Iran in April 1980, and no formal diplomatic ties have been restored since. Switzerland has represented US interests in Iran, while Pakistan has represented Iranian interests in Washington. During the 1980s, tensions were compounded by the Iran-Iraq War (1980–1988), in which the United States provided intelligence and other support to Iraq for parts of the conflict, while separately becoming entangled in the Iran-Contra affair, a covert and controversial arms-for-hostages arrangement involving Iran. Throughout the 1990s, Washington maintained sanctions on Iran and classified it as a state sponsor of terrorism, a designation that remains in place. Iran’s Nuclear Program and US-Iran Negotiations Concerns over Iran’s nuclear program became a central issue in US-Iran relations starting in the early 2000s, after previously undisclosed nuclear facilities were revealed. The United States and other countries, including the UK, France, Germany, Russia, and China, grew concerned that Iran might be pursuing nuclear weapons capability, despite Iran’s insistence that its program was for peaceful energy purposes. Throughout the 2000s and early 2010s, the United Nations Security Council and Western governments imposed escalating sanctions targeting Iran’s oil exports, banking sector, and nuclear-related activities. Multiple rounds of negotiations, often called the P5+1 talks, sought a diplomatic resolution. The 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal These negotiations culminated in July 2015 with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), commonly known as the Iran nuclear deal. Under the agreement, Iran agreed to significant limits on its nuclear activities, including uranium enrichment levels and stockpiles, in exchange for relief from many international sanctions. The JCPOA was negotiated between Iran and the P5+1 group: the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia, and China, along with the European Union. It was widely regarded as a major milestone in Iran nuclear deal history and a rare example of sustained diplomatic engagement between Tehran and Washington since 1979. US Withdrawal From the JCPOA The agreement’s stability did not last. In May 2018, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would withdraw from the JCPOA, arguing that it failed to adequately address Iran’s missile program and regional activities. Washington reimposed sweeping sanctions under a policy known as “maximum pressure.” Iran initially continued complying with parts of the agreement but gradually reduced its commitments in response, including increasing uranium enrichment beyond the deal’s limits. The withdrawal deepened mistrust and set off years of renewed economic and diplomatic strain. Iran-US Relations in Recent Years Since 2021, diplomatic efforts to revive some version of the nuclear agreement have continued intermittently without a lasting breakthrough. Indirect US-Iran talks, often mediated by Oman, resumed in 2025 under the Trump administration, focused on limiting Iran’s nuclear program and missile capabilities. These negotiations were disrupted in mid-2025 after Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and military sites led to a broader Iran-Israel conflict, which halted talks entirely. Diplomatic pressure continued through the year: in August 2025, European powers warned Iran that they would trigger the JCPOA’s “snapback” mechanism, and by late September 2025, United Nations sanctions on Iran were formally reimposed after Security Council efforts to delay the move failed. Tensions escalated further in early 2026, when the United States and Israel launched military strikes against targets inside Iran in late February 2026, following the collapse of extended negotiations. Despite the strikes, the two countries did not enter a formal state of war. Diplomacy resumed afterward, with Iranian and American negotiators meeting for renewed nuclear talks in Geneva. By June 2026, the US and Iran had reached a memorandum of understanding committing both sides to negotiate a broader agreement covering the nuclear program and sanctions within a set timeframe. As of mid-2026, a comprehensive, lasting settlement between Washington and Tehran had not yet been finalized, and the relationship remains defined by cycles of negotiation, sanctions, and periodic military confrontation. Key Timeline: Iran US Relations History at a Glance Date Event 1856 Treaty of Amity establishes early US-Persia relations 1953 CIA- and British-backed coup removes Prime Minister Mossadegh 1953–1979 Close US-Iran alliance under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi 1979 Iranian Revolution establishes the Islamic Republic under Ayatollah Khomeini 1979–1981 US Embassy hostage crisis (444 days) 1980 United States and Iran formally break diplomatic relations 1980–1988 Iran-Iraq War strains relations further 2000s–2010s International concern grows over Iran’s nuclear program; sanctions escalate 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal signed between Iran and world powers 2018 United States withdraws from the JCPOA; sanctions reinstated 2025 Renewed US-Iran talks collapse amid Iran-Israel conflict; UN sanctions reimposed 2026 US-Israel strikes on Iran, followed by renewed talks and a June 2026 US-Iran memorandum of understanding

  Saudi Arabia issued security alerts across a wide stretch of its territory on Tuesday, including in the holy city of Mecca and the kingdom’s second-largest city, Jeddah, following a week of intensifying attacks by Iran-aligned fighters that have pulled the kingdom further into the broader Middle East war. The alerts were lifted quickly, and Saudi authorities did not immediately confirm whether any incoming projectiles had actually landed. No group had claimed responsibility for the attacks as of Tuesday. Still, the warnings marked the widest-ranging alert issued since the conflict escalated last week, and the alarm sounded in Mecca was the first of its kind since the war began, striking at a city that houses shrines sacred to all Muslims worldwide. Houthi Attacks Intensify Across the Kingdom The Iran-aligned Houthi movement in Yemen has claimed a series of major attacks on Saudi Arabia over the past week, including a strike on a Saudi air base on Monday that the group said was carried out in retaliation for Saudi-led airstrikes on Yemen. The Saudi-led military coalition fighting the Houthis said 13 civilians were wounded in Monday’s attacks alone, underscoring the toll the escalating conflict is taking on civilian populations far from the original front lines. Saudi Arabia has pointed to a separate front as well, blaming a pro-Iranian movement based in Iraq for a Friday attack that knocked out one of the kingdom’s most critical pieces of oil infrastructure: the East-West Pipeline, which cuts across the Arabian desert. A New Front Strengthens Iran’s Position The emergence of this new theatre in the wider Middle East conflict has strengthened Iran’s position in its ongoing war with the United States, while further threatening global oil supplies at a moment of already heightened market anxiety. Officials from the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, based in the south of the country and opposed to the Houthis, said Saudi and Yemeni air forces have ramped up aerial bombardment of Houthi positions in response to the group’s advances, including strikes near the historic Red Sea port of Mocha, which Houthi fighters seized last week. Despite the intensified air campaign, Yemeni officials acknowledged that the Houthis now hold effective control over nearly the entire western coast of the country along the Red Sea. “The Houthis are being put under heavy pressure. They in turn are putting more and more pressure on the Saudis, increasing their campaign of missile and drone attacks,” one Yemeni official said, describing an escalating cycle of strikes and counterstrikes that shows no clear sign of slowing. The Houthi advance last week culminated in the seizure of an island at the mouth of the Red Sea, a strategically significant gain that has raised alarm among regional and international observers watching the group’s growing reach along one of the world’s busiest shipping corridors. Oil Markets Feel the Strain Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, stretching 1,200 kilometers (745 miles) and linking the kingdom’s Gulf oil fields to the Red Sea, has served as Riyadh’s principal export route while shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has remained disrupted throughout six months of war. Since the pipeline was shut down following Friday’s attack, traders say a prolonged closure could remove as much as 4% of global oil supply from the market, a figure large enough to move prices meaningfully on its own. Saudi authorities have not said when pipeline operations might resume. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, speaking on the sidelines of a G20 energy meeting in Houston, said Tuesday he expects the disruption “will be measured in days” rather than weeks. Wright added that Saudi Arabia is taking steps to move more oil through the Strait of Hormuz with assistance from the U.S. military, an effort to offset the pipeline’s closure. That workaround, however, faces its own complications. The Houthis’ expanding presence near the Bab el-Mandeb strait, sometimes called the “Gate of Tears,” at the mouth of the Red Sea threatens to jeopardize that alternate export route as well, potentially leaving Saudi Arabia with fewer safe corridors to move crude to international markets. Oil prices have climbed steadily since last week’s escalation, reaching levels not seen since May. Brent crude futures rose above $108 a barrel on Tuesday, while the politically sensitive average retail price of diesel in the United States hit a new all-time high of nearly $6.27 a gallon, a development likely to reverberate through household budgets and political debates in Washington regardless of the conflict’s outcome. The United Nations Security Council was scheduled to discuss the worsening crisis in the Bab el-Mandeb on Tuesday afternoon, according to two French diplomats, signaling growing international concern over the strait’s stability as a global shipping route. A Reignited Conflict After Years of Relative Calm Saudi Arabia has led a military coalition against the Houthis since 2015, in a conflict that had largely quieted under a ceasefire in recent years. Fighting reignited this month, with Houthi forces pushing back units aligned with Yemen’s internationally recognized government and rapidly expanding their territorial control along the western coast. The renewed conflict has placed the United States in a difficult position. Washington bombed Houthi targets for two months last year but now faces a choice between standing aside, risking further threats to the global economy, or offering more direct military support to Saudi Arabia and risking deeper involvement in another costly Middle East theatre at a time when American forces are already engaged elsewhere in the region’s war. Diplomatic Efforts Underway Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman met with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi in Cairo on Tuesday, part of an apparent diplomatic push to address the widening crisis. A statement from the Egyptian presidency following the meeting said the two leaders stressed the need to ensure freedom and security of navigation through the Bab el-Mandeb and the Red Sea more broadly, reflecting shared concern over the economic and strategic stakes of continued instability in the waterway. The crown prince also met with the U.S. regional military commander, Admiral Brad Cooper, in Jeddah on Monday, and phoned President Donald Trump last week to request military support. So far, that support has been limited to intelligence assistance rather than direct military engagement, leaving Riyadh to manage the escalating threat largely on its own for now. What Comes Next With Houthi forces holding much of Yemen’s western coast and Saudi Arabia’s main oil export pipeline still offline, the coming days are likely to prove critical both militarily and economically. Saudi and Yemeni forces appear set to continue intensified air operations against Houthi positions, while attention will remain fixed on the East-West Pipeline’s expected reopening and whether the Bab el-Mandeb strait can remain viable as an alternate export route. The Security Council’s discussion Tuesday may signal whether the international community is prepared to take a more active diplomatic role in containing the conflict, even as Washington continues to weigh the risks of deeper military involvement.

A fresh dispute has broken out over the state of a possible Ukraine energy ceasefire, after US President Donald Trump claimed that Russia and Ukraine had mutually agreed to stop striking each other’s energy infrastructure — a claim Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy quickly disputed. The disagreement, which surfaced on September 15, 2026, highlights just how far apart the two sides remain on the details of any energy truce, even as diesel prices climb and pressure mounts on all sides to find a way to de-escalate the war. What Trump Claimed About the Ukraine Energy Ceasefire On Monday, Trump posted on social media that Moscow and Kyiv had both agreed to halt strikes on energy infrastructure. He linked the announcement to the recent spike in diesel prices, arguing that the attacks — rather than broader instability tied to the war in Iran — were the real driver behind the surge. Diesel prices in the US have climbed to record highs in recent weeks, and Trump appeared eager to frame a pause in energy strikes as a way to ease that pressure while also presenting it as a diplomatic win. The claimed Ukraine energy ceasefire fits a broader pattern from the Trump administration, which has repeatedly floated ceasefire announcements and partial deals over the course of the war, not all of which have held up once Kyiv and Moscow weighed in independently. Zelenskyy’s Response Zelenskyy didn’t confirm Trump’s version of events. In a social media post, the Ukrainian president said no final deal had actually been reached, and laid out the condition under which Kyiv would actually agree to stand down: Russia would need to genuinely stop striking Ukraine’s electricity grid, other energy facilities, critical infrastructure, and food supply routes, with guarantees from Ukraine’s partners that this commitment would hold. He was blunt about Kyiv’s underlying skepticism, writing that Ukraine remains unconvinced Russia is willing to abide by any agreement it signs. A Ukrainian official also pushed back directly on the idea that Moscow had signed off on anything, telling reporters that despite Trump’s assertion of a mutual agreement, Russia had not actually agreed to it. That distinction matters. Trump’s post implied a done deal between the two warring parties. Zelenskyy’s response makes clear that, from Kyiv’s perspective, any Ukraine energy ceasefire is still very much a proposal on the table rather than an active agreement. Markets Weren’t Convinced Either Financial markets responded to the news of a possible Ukraine energy ceasefire with notable skepticism. Diesel futures initially ticked up on Trump’s announcement but pared those gains as the session went on in choppy trading, ultimately settling around 1% higher on the day — a muted reaction for what was billed, according to CNBC’s coverage of the claim, as a major diplomatic breakthrough. US retail diesel prices, meanwhile, remained at record highs. Analysts were similarly cautious. Rachel Ziemba, an adjunct senior fellow at the Center for a New American Security, said she would put far more weight on confirmation directly from Ukraine and Russia than on Trump’s own characterization of the situation, as she told Energy Connects. She also pointed out a practical wrinkle: even if strikes on refineries stopped, that alone might not be enough to meaningfully bring down prices if other bottlenecks, such as blocked Gulf shipping channels, remain in place. In other words, even a genuine ceasefire on energy strikes might not translate into the kind of quick price relief Trump’s announcement implied. Why Energy Infrastructure Has Become a Flashpoint To understand why this specific issue keeps resurfacing in ceasefire talks, it helps to look at how central energy infrastructure has become to the war itself. Russia has waged a sustained campaign against Ukraine’s power grid for years, targeting thermal power plants, substations, and district heating facilities, particularly ahead of winter months when the impact on civilians is most severe. Ukraine, in turn, has shifted much of its own long-range strike strategy toward Russian oil refineries, storage terminals, and export infrastructure — aiming to squeeze the revenue that helps fund Moscow’s war effort. Because both sides have leaned so heavily on energy strikes as tools of pressure, any Ukraine energy ceasefire covering energy infrastructure would represent a meaningful de-escalation — but it would also require both militaries to give up a strategy they’ve each found effective. That’s part of why previous energy-related truce attempts earlier in the war didn’t hold cleanly, with both sides accusing the other of violations shortly after announcements were made. A Pattern of Disputed Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Claims This isn’t the first time a Trump-announced ceasefire element has run into daylight between Washington’s framing and the reality on the ground. Earlier in the war, after Trump spoke separately with both Putin and Zelenskyy, the two sides appeared to align around a partial ceasefire covering energy and civilian infrastructure. Even then, the specifics were murky: US officials described the agreement in narrower terms than Zelenskyy did in his own public statements, and within days Ukraine was reporting fresh Russian strikes on its energy grid despite the supposed pause. That earlier episode is a useful reminder that this current Ukraine energy ceasefire dispute fits a pattern — verbal agreements reached in phone calls or described secondhand by US officials have a track record of falling apart once both militaries are back in the field. It also explains why Zelenskyy, this time around, was quick to publicly clarify the terms rather than simply let Trump’s framing stand. What Would a Real Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Take? Based on Zelenskyy’s own statements, a credible Ukraine energy ceasefire would need to include a few key elements: Verified reciprocity — not just an announcement, but confirmation from both Kyiv and Moscow that they’ve independently agreed to the same terms. A broad definition of protected infrastructure — covering not just oil refineries but the electricity grid, other energy facilities, critical infrastructure, and food supply routes.  Guarantees from Ukraine’s partners — some mechanism, likely involving the US or other allies, to hold Russia accountable if strikes resume. A durable timeframe — given that past ceasefire attempts have collapsed within days, any new agreement would need enforcement mechanisms strong enough to survive early testing. Until those pieces are in place, Ukrainian officials appear determined to treat any US-announced ceasefire as aspirational rather than operative. How This Fits Into the Broader Peace Process This dispute doesn’t exist in isolation — it’s the latest chapter in a peace process that has moved in fits and starts for much of the year. Trump has held multiple calls with both Putin and Zelenskyy, often describing each conversation as a step closer to a lasting resolution, while facilitating occasional prisoner exchanges and narrower agreements along the way. But full ceasefire talks have repeatedly stalled over disagreements about territory, security guarantees, and — as with this Ukraine energy ceasefire dispute — the scope of what’s actually being agreed to. Energy infrastructure sits at an unusual intersection in these talks. Unlike broader territorial or security questions, a mutual pause on energy strikes is, in theory, one of the more achievable steps toward de-escalation, since it doesn’t require either side to make concessions on the front line. That’s likely part of why it keeps resurfacing as a proposed starting point. But it also means any breakdown in an energy-specific truce carries outsized symbolic weight — if the two sides can’t hold even a narrow, mutually beneficial pause, it raises doubts about their ability to manage more complex parts of a broader deal. The Bigger Picture This latest dispute is less about a single miscommunication and more about the ongoing gap between how the Trump administration talks about progress toward peace and how that progress is actually experienced by Ukraine and Russia on the ground. For Trump, framing the situation as a resolved deal serves an immediate political purpose — tying it to easing diesel prices and demonstrating diplomatic momentum. For Zelenskyy, publicly correcting the record is about protecting Ukraine’s negotiating position and making clear that any de-escalation is conditional, not automatic. For now, the state of the Ukraine energy ceasefire remains unresolved. Strikes on both sides’ energy infrastructure have not stopped, markets are treating the announcement with caution, and the core disagreement — whether Russia has actually agreed to anything — remains unanswered. Whether this develops into an actual, verified pause in strikes, or fades the way earlier partial ceasefire claims have, will likely become clearer in the days ahead as both Kyiv and Moscow respond more formally. Final Thoughts on the Ukraine Energy Ceasefire Dispute The back-and-forth over this claimed Ukraine energy ceasefire underscores a recurring dynamic in the Russia-Ukraine peace process: announcements often move faster than actual agreements. Until Russia confirms specific terms and Ukraine sees consistent follow-through on the ground, statements about ceasefires — however confidently made — are likely to be met with the same caution Zelenskyy and financial markets showed this week.

A fast-moving Houthi offensive in Yemen has put the Iran-aligned militants within reach of controlling one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes, adding a new layer of difficulty to President Donald Trump’s ongoing war with Iran, now in its seventh month. Houthi fighters have pushed south along Yemen’s coastline in recent days, expanding their reach toward the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, sometimes called the “Gate of Tears,” at the southern entrance to the Red Sea. Control of that passage would give Tehran leverage over both of the region’s major oil corridors at once. On Friday, Houthi forces reached the island of Perim, positioned in the middle of the strait between Yemen and the African coast. The advance is particularly troubling for Saudi Arabia, which has relied heavily on Red Sea ports to ship its oil since the war closed off much of the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. A Setback for Trump’s Pressure Strategy The timing complicates matters further for Trump, who is already dealing with record-low approval ratings and looking for an exit from the broader conflict. He recently unveiled an economic pressure campaign meant to squeeze concessions out of Iran’s government. Rising U.S. gasoline prices tied to the war have put his Republican Party’s hold on Congress at risk ahead of the November midterm elections. Iran, despite sustaining serious military and economic damage, has shown no sign of backing down. “Just weeks ago, Trump adopted a strategy of squeezing Iran’s economy while keeping military conflict at levels too low to squeeze the American economy,” said Stephen Wertheim, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “The Houthis have shattered Trump’s plan.” Washington Weighs the Cost of Getting Involved The U.S. cannot easily accept a scenario where the Houthis shut down the strait, spiking energy prices and disrupting global trade. But taking direct military action against a group that has already outlasted attacks from both Saudi Arabia and the United States would pull American forces into a new and risky mission at a moment when the military is already committed to the fight with Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman called Trump on Thursday to request U.S. military assistance against the Houthis, according to three sources who spoke with Reuters. The sources said Washington told him it would not intervene directly for now, offering intelligence support instead. Trump confirmed the call on Saturday. He said the Houthis had also reached out to his administration, asking that Washington stay out of the conflict directly. A senior Trump administration official would not answer specific questions about the situation but said the U.S. remains focused on protecting freedom of navigation in the Red Sea “while empowering our regional partners to take the lead in managing and resolving regional security challenges.” Saudi Arabia, Iran and the Houthis did not respond to requests for comment. Iran’s foreign ministry said Thursday that the conflict in Yemen cannot be resolved through blockades or military strikes against the Houthis and called instead for dialogue, without addressing Iran’s own involvement in the group’s operations. Two Choke Points Under Pressure Iran already retaliated against U.S. and Israeli strikes earlier this year by disrupting traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a passage that once carried roughly a fifth of the world’s oil supply. If the Houthis succeed in closing the Bab el-Mandeb as well, that would threaten another 7 percent of global petroleum supplies and about 12 percent of global trade. “This was always the worst-case scenario, that the Iranians exert control not only of Strait of Hormuz but Bab el-Mandeb, two of the leading energy choke points in the world,” said David Schenker, who served as Assistant Secretary of State for Near East Affairs during Trump’s first term and now works at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “It’s an enormous amount of leverage that [the Iranians] have in hand,” Schenker said. Analysts and former officials say Trump faces a difficult decision: commit U.S. forces and limited air-defense munitions to repelling the Houthis, or leave the fight to Saudi Arabia and its allies, including a Yemeni government based in the south of the country. The Houthis have held Yemen’s capital for 12 years, surviving a Saudi-led military campaign that has failed to remove them from power. Ending an Existing Truce Would Carry Risks A U.S. move against the Houthis would also unravel an arrangement Trump reached last year, under which Washington agreed to stop bombing the group in exchange for an end to Houthi strikes on Red Sea shipping. Breaking that deal would likely expose American forces to missile fire from Yemen. It would also place additional strain on a U.S. military already stretched thin. Officials say confronting the Houthis would demand substantial naval and air resources, along with intelligence assets needed to track Houthi positions that have shifted considerably since last year’s ceasefire. A sustained campaign against Houthi drones and missiles could also draw down already limited U.S. stockpiles of munitions and air-defense interceptors. The senior administration official rejected the idea that resource constraints were a concern. “The United States Military has more than enough munitions, ammo, and stockpiles to serve all of the Commander-in-Chief’s strategic goals and beyond,” the official said. Tim Lenderking, who served as U.S. special envoy for Yemen under former President Joe Biden and now works as a principal at the law firm Squire Patton Boggs, said Trump’s reluctance to intervene militarily means Washington needs to increase intelligence sharing with Saudi Arabia’s air campaign and boost diplomatic and material support for Yemen’s internationally recognized government. “This administration came in asking the question, ‘What can Yemen do for us?’” Lenderking said during a webcast hosted by the Middle East Institute in Washington. “Well, Yemen can spoil our day.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping called on the BRICS bloc to act as a peacemaker in the Middle East during an address to member countries gathered in New Delhi on Saturday. China will work alongside other BRICS members in that role, Xi said, because the ongoing war “does not serve the common interests of the international community.” State broadcaster CCTV carried the remarks. BRICS started in 2009 with five founding members: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. The group later added Egypt, Ethiopia, Indonesia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates. Its original goal was to offer developing nations a counterweight to a world order shaped largely by the United States and its Western allies. Today, BRICS members make up more than 40 percent of the world’s population and close to a quarter of the global economy. Xi Frames BRICS as a Global South Leader Xi described the bloc as a “leading group” within the Global South and pointed to it as an example of self-reliance for emerging and developing economies. He said the group should push harder toward innovation-driven growth. China will take over the BRICS chairmanship next year and host the 19th BRICS summit, CCTV reported. Xi and Modi Meet on Summit Sidelines Xi also met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the summit. According to state news agency Xinhua, Xi told Modi that China views its relationship with India through a “strategic, long-term perspective.” Xinhua quoted Xi saying the two countries can learn from each other’s strengths and pursue shared development together. The meeting marked Xi’s first visit to India in seven years. Analysts say the trip may help move the diplomatic relationship between the two neighbors forward, though little evidence yet points to any real improvement in business ties between them. A Relationship Shaped by Old Tension China and India share a difficult history. The two countries fought a brief war in 1962, and that conflict has colored their relationship for decades since. Tensions flared again after a border skirmish in 2020 left 20 Indian soldiers and four Chinese soldiers dead. Despite that history, ties between the two countries have eased somewhat in recent years. Modi traveled to China last year, a visit that helped set the stage for warmer contact. Both nations are also navigating unpredictable relationships with Washington, which may be pushing them toward closer coordination with each other. BRICS Summit Continues Broader Diplomatic Push Xi’s remarks on the Middle East come as BRICS leaders work through a joint declaration during the New Delhi gathering. The bloc has increasingly positioned itself as a platform for countries outside the traditional Western alliance system to coordinate on global conflicts and economic policy. For China, the summit offers a chance to reinforce its role as a leading voice among developing nations while also managing a delicate bilateral relationship with India. The upcoming Chinese chairmanship of BRICS next year gives Beijing an opportunity to shape the bloc’s priorities directly, including how it approaches conflicts like the one in the Middle East. Whether BRICS can meaningfully influence the Middle East war remains an open question. The bloc includes Iran, one of the parties most directly affected by the conflict, alongside countries like Brazil and South Africa that have taken more distant diplomatic positions on the issue. Modi’s government, meanwhile, continues to balance its own relationships with the United States, Russia and China. The New Delhi summit puts that balancing act on public display, with Xi’s visit serving as one of the most closely watched moments of the gathering. No immediate details emerged on what concrete steps BRICS members might take toward peacemaking in the Middle East, or how member states with differing interests in the region might coordinate such an effort.