Washington and Tehran edged closer to defusing the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, with President Donald Trump describing marathon talks between the two sides as productive and predicting the blockaded waterway would reopen within days.
“They had an all-day negotiation,” Trump told Fox News’ “@ Night” program, adding that the strait “is going to be open very soon.” He paired the optimism with a warning aimed at Tehran: “If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard.”
The comments landed as financial markets reacted swiftly. Oil prices dropped and Asian stocks climbed on Wednesday, extending gains from a record-setting session on Wall Street driven by investor bets that a deal to restore shipping through Hormuz could be finalized soon. The strait, controlled in part by Oman, normally handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, making any disruption there a direct hit to global energy markets.

Axios reported Tuesday, citing two regional sources and a U.S. official, that Washington and Tehran are nearing an interim agreement to reopen the waterway with Oman’s involvement. According to the report, U.S. officials were pushing for an announcement as early as Wednesday.
Iranian state media offered a more cautious account. Citing an informed source, state outlets said an agreement between Iran and Oman over the strait would be delayed “as long as the United States continues to threaten Iran,” a direct pushback against the tone of Trump’s remarks even as both sides describe the underlying talks as active.
Qatar Points to Progress

Trump’s public confidence follows months of similar predictions that have not yet translated into a ceasefire. Since the war began, the president has repeatedly threatened heavy military retaliation if Iran failed to reach terms, then pointed to negotiating progress that ultimately fell short of ending hostilities. Five months in, Trump has not secured the goals he laid out when the conflict started: dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, limiting its capacity to strike regional adversaries and creating pressure that could lead to the fall of its clerical government.
Qatar has emerged as a parallel channel in the diplomatic effort. Doha said earlier this week that mediators were making headway toward ending the conflict, a claim that came shortly after Tehran had denied any talks were taking place. Qatar’s Emiri office said Trump and Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani spoke by phone on Tuesday about narrowing the gap between Washington and Tehran and improving the odds of a durable settlement.
Iran’s Foreign Ministry offered its own confirmation of movement. Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said talks with Oman over transit through the strait were positive and ongoing, with both sides working to establish safe shipping lanes. Baghaei said the proposed route was designed to protect the sovereign rights and national security of both Iran and Oman, according to state media.
Control of the strait itself remains a sticking point. Iran has long argued it should share authority over the waterway with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore, but Tehran rejected an Omani proposal last week that would have created joint oversight and allowed voluntary fees to be collected from passing ships. Iran has kept most traffic through Hormuz halted during the standoff, while the United States continues to enforce a blockade on ships and ports linked to Iran.
Red Sea Blockade Adds Pressure

The conflict’s reach has extended beyond the Gulf. Yemen’s Houthi movement, which is aligned with Iran, has imposed its own naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, cutting off another route for oil exports. In one recent incident, a projectile struck an India-flagged vessel near Yemen, causing it to capsize. Indian officials said all 14 crew members were rescued. Yemen blamed the Houthis for the attack.
The human and economic toll of the war continues to climb. The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization has recorded at least 17 seafarer deaths across 64 incidents in the Strait of Hormuz since fighting began on February 28.
Iran’s government has reported separate casualty figures tied to U.S. military action. Tehran says 50 people have been killed and 500 wounded in American strikes since hostilities resumed in late June. That toll was issued before Iran later said a U.S. strike on Qeshm in late July killed a husband, wife and their two-year-old son, a claim that would add to the death count if confirmed.
Taken together, Iran has reported more than 3,400 deaths since the war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched their campaign. The U.S. military has reported 18 personnel killed over the same period.
For now, the gap between public statements from Washington and Tehran remains wide even as both governments point to the same negotiating track. Trump’s prediction of an imminent reopening stands against Iranian state media’s warning that continued U.S. threats could stall any Oman agreement indefinitely. Whether Wednesday brings the announcement Axios’ sources described, or another round of delay, will likely hinge on whether either side is willing to soften its public posture to match the private progress both claim is underway.












