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Is Trump making Latin America great again?

Trump Latin America right-wing leaders

President Donald Trump’s foreign policy has faced sharp criticism at home over the past year. A costly and unresolved war against Iran, combined with his continued failure to restrain Israel’s military campaign, has coincided with a steep drop in his approval ratings. Public frustration with both conflicts has grown steadily among American voters.

Yet one region tells a different story about Trump’s influence abroad. Over the past eighteen months, a series of right-wing candidates has won national elections across Latin America. Trump has claimed personal credit for several of these victories, framing them as evidence of his continued sway over the hemisphere. He has given this pattern a name: the “Donroe Doctrine,” a reference that ties his approach to the historical Monroe Doctrine while stamping it with his own branding.

These newly elected leaders have shown a consistent willingness to align with Washington’s priorities. That alignment carries consequences for the people living under their governments, particularly given the historical pattern of US partnerships with right-wing security forces in the region.

Colombia’s shift to the right

Colombia’s political direction changed sharply with the inauguration of Abelardo de la Espriella, a far-right businessman and former criminal defense lawyer. De la Espriella built a significant portion of his legal career representing paramilitary commanders in court, a detail that has drawn attention given his current political positioning. During his campaign, he pledged to “disembowel” the political left, language that set the tone for his approach to governance.

Since taking office, de la Espriella has prioritized expanding fracking operations and pursuing other projects with significant environmental impact. His rise also marks a broader shift in Colombian politics away from the previous administration.

His predecessor, Gustavo Petro, spent four years pursuing policies aimed at reducing domestic inequality. Petro was also an outspoken critic of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza, a position that put him at odds with Washington. With de la Espriella now in office, Colombia has moved back into closer alignment with US foreign policy goals.

That closer relationship now has a physical headquarters. Medellin has been designated as the base for “Shield of the Americas,” a hemisphere-wide security initiative backed by the Trump administration. De la Espriella has described the partnership in expansive terms, stating that the United States and Colombia share a “shared destiny to defend Western civilisation across the Americas.”

Argentina’s austerity under Milei

In Argentina, President Javier Milei has become one of the most closely watched figures in this political shift. His party performed strongly in October’s midterm elections, a result that followed a direct intervention from Trump. The US president tied a $40 billion bailout package for Argentina to the outcome of those elections, a connection that drew criticism from observers who viewed it as an attempt to influence the vote from outside the country.

Milei’s signature policy has been the elimination of a wide range of welfare programs. The economic effects of these cuts have been significant. Millions of Argentinians have fallen into poverty since the reductions took effect, and Buenos Aires has seen a marked increase in homelessness as a direct result of the policy changes.

Honduras and the threat of lost aid

Honduras saw a similar political transition in January, when businessman Nasry Asfura assumed the presidency. His path to office was shaped in part by an explicit threat from Trump, who said he would cut off US aid to Honduras if Asfura lost the election. Asfura went on to win.

Since taking power, Asfura has pursued a crackdown on crime as a central policy priority. The results have not matched the stated goals. Violence in the country has increased following the crackdown, a pattern that mirrors the outcomes of similar enforcement-first approaches elsewhere in the region.

Chile’s turn toward Kast

Chile’s 2025 presidential election produced another win for Trump’s preferred candidates. Jose Antonio Kast, an admirer of former Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet, secured the presidency with Trump’s public endorsement. Kast moved quickly after taking office, personally overseeing the start of a project to dig trenches along Chile’s borders as part of a broader border security push.

A regional pattern

Beyond these four countries, several other Latin American leaders have adopted comparable political approaches. Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele and Peru’s Keiko Fujimori have each pursued strict, enforcement-heavy strategies on crime. Fujimori’s political lineage adds another layer to this pattern: she is the daughter of a former Peruvian dictator, connecting her current political rise to the country’s own history of authoritarian rule.

These leaders share more than a general ideological alignment. Nearly all have embraced the position that government should prioritize the interests of wealthy citizens and businesses, a principle that runs through Trump’s own domestic agenda. Most have also adopted iron-fist crime policies that rely heavily on incarceration and lethal force rather than addressing the underlying causes of crime.

Many of these governments have also leaned on anti-immigrant rhetoric, using migrants as a political target in ways that closely resemble Trump’s own messaging in the United States. This shared approach to migration has become a defining feature of the political movement now taking hold across the region.

Domestic fallout in the United States

The immigration enforcement approach that has spread across Latin America has its roots in policies pursued domestically by the Trump administration. US Immigration and Customs Enforcement has expanded its operations significantly, with agents detaining international scholars and activists as part of broader enforcement efforts. ICE has also been connected to incidents resulting in the deaths of US citizens, according to reporting on the agency’s recent operations.

Financial data released in August adds another dimension to the picture. A report from Democratic members of the US Congress Joint Economic Committee found that Trump’s personal income reached $2.2 billion in 2025, more than tripling his earnings from the previous year. The same report found that American households collectively lost $219 billion over the same period, with families facing higher costs for everyday essentials.

A historical pattern repeats

The current alignment between Washington and right-wing Latin American governments is not without precedent. Both Republican and Democratic administrations in the United States have previously partnered with abusive governments in the region, often in the name of combating leftist politics or drug trafficking. Those partnerships have historically coincided with significant violence against civilians, particularly in countries where US-backed security forces operated alongside paramilitary groups.

Colombia’s own history illustrates this pattern directly. Decades of US funding for Colombia’s military, delivered while the armed forces maintained close ties to right-wing paramilitary organizations, contributed to substantial civilian casualties. De la Espriella’s legal work defending paramilitary leaders places him within that same historical context, even as he now leads the country as head of state.

What the shift means going forward

The current wave of elections has drawn comparisons to previous periods of US-aligned governance in Latin America, with some analysts describing the trend as a broader political realignment sweeping the region. The scale and coordination behind this shift, spanning Colombia, Argentina, Honduras, Chile and beyond, distinguishes it from earlier, more isolated instances of US influence in individual countries.

Trump’s continued engagement with the region shows no sign of slowing. Financial incentives, public endorsements and now a dedicated security initiative headquartered in Medellin all point toward deeper US involvement across the hemisphere. For the people living under these newly elected governments, the practical effects of that involvement, from welfare cuts to expanded crime crackdowns, are already being felt.

The pattern raises questions about what comes next as these governments consolidate power. History suggests that when Washington partners closely with right-wing security forces in Latin America, the resulting policies carry significant human costs, particularly for the populations these crackdowns are ostensibly designed to protect.

Picture of George Mensah

George Mensah

George Mensah is a Senior Political & Conflict Correspondent at ClicxPost, covering global politics, international conflict, and economic developments. With five years of experience in breaking news and geopolitical reporting, he delivers fast, accurate analysis on major world events.

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August 25, 2026 No Comments

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Trump considers renaming Lake Ontario “Lake America” as trade dispute with Canada deepens

August 25, 2026 No Comments

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August 24, 2026 No Comments

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August 24, 2026 No Comments

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August 24, 2026 No Comments

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August 18, 2026 No Comments

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Democrats also gained an advantage when voters were asked which party would be better at managing the cost of living. The development could be consequential for the midterm elections, which have historically been driven by economic issues as a major factor in voter behavior. Republicans have stressed tax cuts, deregulation and energy policy, while Democrats have emphasized household costs and the affordability of necessities. The poll indicates that the Republican edge on economic management could be fraying.# Immigration a Republican Strong Point Immigration remains a Republican advantage, but a much slimmer one. About 40 percent of registered voters said Republicans had the better approach to immigration, while 38 percent said Democrats did. The two-point Republican advantage was the smallest recorded during Trump’s current term. The change is notable because Republicans enjoyed a much larger advantage immediately after Trump returned to office. In January 2025, Republicans held a 26-point lead over Democrats on the issue. Trump has made immigration enforcement a central part of his presidency. His administration has pursued a nationwide crackdown, while officials have highlighted a significant decline in illegal border crossings. However, the administration’s immigration policies have also generated controversy over detention conditions, confrontations involving law enforcement and the detention of children. Those disputes appear to have affected Republican support on an issue that has traditionally been one of the party’s strongest political assets. ## War, Inflation and Political Risk The combination of foreign policy and economic concerns creates a difficult environment for the president. Trump has repeatedly shifted between threatening further escalation against Iran and suggesting that a negotiated settlement could be close. That uncertainty has made it difficult for businesses, investors and households to determine how long the economic disruption might last. The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because of its role in global energy transportation. Any prolonged restriction on shipping through the waterway can affect oil prices far beyond the Middle East. For the administration, the political challenge is to convince voters that the costs associated with the conflict are temporary and justified by broader national security objectives. The latest poll suggests that message has not yet gained widespread public support. ## Public Opinion Could Shape the Midterms The Reuters/Ipsos findings do not necessarily predict the outcome of November’s elections, but they identify several vulnerabilities for the Republican Party. Trump’s approval rating is weak, voters are increasingly pessimistic about the duration of the Iran war, and Democrats have begun gaining ground on the economy. At the same time, Republicans retain a narrow advantage on immigration and continue to benefit from Trump’s strong base of support. The coming months could therefore prove decisive. If the Iran conflict moves toward a durable settlement and fuel prices decline, Trump could regain some of the political ground lost during the crisis. But if fighting continues, shipping remains disrupted and gasoline prices stay high, economic frustration could become a central issue in the midterm campaign. The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online among 1,166 U.S. adults nationwide. It carried a margin of error of approximately three percentage points in either direction. For Trump, the results offer a clear warning: voters are increasingly judging his presidency not only by his promises of strength abroad, but also by the cost of that approach at home.

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Donald Trump Iran talks

Trump Says No Iran Talks Are Underway as Hormuz Dispute Deepens

August 18, 2026 No Comments

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Tuesday that there were no conversations underway or planned with Iran, contradicting more upbeat signals from members of his own government and highlighting the tremendous ambiguity surrounding efforts to end the dispute. Trump said the strategically important Strait of Hormuz was open and operational but that a U.S. Navy blockade was still in place. But Iranian authorities presented a starkly different version, saying the waterway would remain shut until Washington honored terms Tehran alleges were included in a temporary deal struck in June. The dueling claims came after a 60-day diplomatic window opened by the US-Iran pact ended Monday without a meaningful conclusion. The collapse has fueled new worries over oil supply, inflation and the potential for a renewed military escalation. Diplomacy Has Stalled, Says Trump Trump remarked in a statement on his Truth Social platform said there had been no talks with Iran and none were planned. He also said the U.S. naval embargo remains in place, while insisting the Strait of Hormuz itself is open. Mines have been taken out or blown up in the waterway, Trump added. The comments marked a substantial change in tone from the previous day. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and an administration envoy involved in the diplomatic push, had signaled that talks with Tehran were underway and could be more meaningful than previous meetings. The mixed signals have intensified doubts over whether Washington still believes negotiation is the best way to settle the conflict or is planning to ratchet up economic and military pressure on Tehran. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have continued to claim they are eager to discuss, but only on terms they say defend the country’s sovereignty and economic interests. Iran Says Hormuz To Stay Closed The issue that remains unresolved in the negotiations is the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow strait linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman is one of the world’s most vital energy corridors. Before the fighting, over 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas went through the channel. In the June agreement, Iran committed to arrange for the safe passage of commercial vessels for 60 days. The United States has promised to begin lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports and to finish that process within 30 days. The accord also called for negotiations for a larger settlement on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions and economic rehabilitation. But the two parties had quite different conceptions of what should happen beyond the first 60-day period. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran will continue to keep the waterway closed until Washington met demands Iran believes were part of the accord. Tehran wants the US to lift its blockade, remove oil restrictions, release Iranian assets frozen abroad and stop American military threats and operations. The dispute has turned what was meant to be a de-escalation mechanism into one of the main causes of confrontation. The initial memorandum foresaw the return of commercial traffic gradually and Iranian efforts to eliminate technical and military barriers, including mines. Shipping still well below normal The strait was open but traffic was well below average, Trump said. Early marine data showed just a handful of ships transiting the channel Monday, well below activity levels before the war. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations group also stated Tuesday that an outbound vessel transiting through the strait had been hit by an unidentified projectile. The incident apparently caused damage in the engine room and a crew injury, and the surviving crew were being assisted by Omani authorities. The event underscores the ongoing risks to commercial operators even when the waterway is nominally passable. For shipping corporations the question is not just whether a ship can physically enter the channel. Insurance expenses, threat of attack, uncertainty over mine clearance and the prospect of detention or intervention can all play a part in whether commercial operators are willing to make the route. That uncertainty has led to the volatility of global energy markets.# Oil prices rise, markets fear a long crisis The end of diplomacy was quickly reflected in the financial markets. Brent crude, the international benchmark, had jumped during the battle to a high of around $126 a barrel, about three-quarters more than before the war. Prices then dropped on prospects of a truce and greater shipping activity but continued diplomatic tensions pushed Brent higher again. It closed Tuesday at just above $91 a barrel. The fallout goes far beyond energy. Higher oil prices raise the cost of transportation and manufacturing throughout the global economy and add to inflationary pressure. Then, governments and central banks have to weigh whether greater energy prices are transitory or enduring when choosing interest rates. Equity and government bond markets have also been buffeted by uncertainty, as the cost of borrowing has jumped dramatically in key nations. U.S. 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest level in nearly two decades as fears grew over the longer term economic impact of the conflict, Reuters reported. American Consumers Are Feeling the Pinch The crisis has also become a growing domestic political concern for Trump. In the U.S., AAA said, gasoline prices had surged beyond $4 a gallon, compared to less than $3 before the war. The rise comes at a politically sensitive time, with legislative elections set for November. For the government, the challenge is to sustain the pressure on Iran, but avoid a lasting energy shock. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz might force fuel prices even higher, with possible effects on household budgets, transportation expenses and inflation expectations. Trump has always characterized his policy as one of maximum pressure on Tehran and seeking a negotiated conclusion. With the 60-day framework collapsing, that strategy is facing further criticism.“We are not giving up diplomacy,” Tehran says But despite increasingly aggressive rhetoric, Iranian leaders have not shut the door entirely on diplomacy. Tehran still was willing to talk to Washington but would not confuse talks with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said Tuesday. His remarks were reflective of the dilemma facing Iranian leaders. The administration wants to show it can endure the pressure of the U.S. military and economy, but it also wants relief from sanctions and access to frozen financial assets. Long-term economic disruption could also raise domestic misery and political pressure on the government. Iranian leaders have privately warned that worsening economic conditions could trigger new social upheaval and undermine popular confidence in the Islamic Republic even more. Iran’s government thus confronts conflicting pressures: to be hardline toward Washington but to avoid a confrontation that could further damage Iran’s economy.# A Delicate Pact Falls Apart The June memorandum was supposed to give the United States and Iran 60 days to reach a permanent settlement. The pact calls for both parties to suspend military operations and work for a larger agreement on Iran’s nuclear programs, sanctions and economic reconstruction. The treaty also directly dealt with the Strait of Hormuz and the return of commercial shipping was one of the first practical tests of the truce. ([Military Times][2]) The deal, however, left many of the most contentious issues unsolved. They included the future of Iran’s nuclear program, the scope of sanctions relief, the removal or prolonged presence of U.S. forces, the status of the naval blockade and who would ultimately manage maritime commerce through Hormuz. Failure to reach resolution within the 60-day term has resulted in the breakdown of those unresolved issues.## The Risk of Further Escalation The need for international governments and oil markets is to keep the disagreement over Hormuz from becoming another round of military conflict, for now. The waterway is too vital to the world economy for the damage caused by protracted disruption to be seen as just a regional concern. Longer-term cuts in oil and gas supplies could push up prices globally and make it harder to tame inflation. Yet Washington and Tehran have indicated that neither side looks eager to walk away from negotiations altogether. Trump’s assertion that there are no discussions scheduled, but Iranian officials continue to say they are willing to negotiate, indicates the diplomatic avenue may be blocked but not forever shut. The question now is whether both parties can find sufficient common ground to bring back commercial ships and reopen negotiations before military pressure and economic costs push the crisis into a more hazardous phase. For now, the Strait of Hormuz is the fulcrum of that uncertainty — and its fate might determine whether the situation veers toward renewed negotiation or another round of escalation.

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Grocery Prices Still Rising Two Years After Trump’s Bedminster Inflation Pledge, Testing Republicans Ahead of Midterms

August 15, 2026 No Comments

Two years after Donald Trump staged a New Jersey press conference surrounded by grocery staples to attack inflation under Democrats, food prices are still climbing despite his promise to bring them down. The gap between that pledge and the current reality now threatens to become a liability for Republicans heading into November’s midterm elections. Trump stood among tables piled with fruit, beef, cereal, milk, and other household staples at his Bedminster golf club on August 15, 2024, blaming the Biden administration for sharp increases in grocery costs. The event, which included charts displaying rising prices, targeted Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and centered on Trump’s core campaign promise: that he alone could tame inflation and lower the cost of living for American families. Two years later, higher gasoline and grocery prices are squeezing household budgets and pushing the cost of living to the top of voters’ concerns. For the first time in nearly a decade, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows voters giving Democrats a slight edge over Republicans on economic stewardship. A voter’s frustration at the checkout line Sheila Carney, a 68-year-old Trump voter, punctuated her frustration with an expletive as she loaded $70 worth of groceries into her car outside a supermarket near Trump’s Bedminster club. The purchase was modest: some meat, detergent, and a 12-pack of iced tea. For Carney, the receipt stood as proof that affordability concerns Trump has sometimes dismissed as a Democratic “hoax” remain a daily burden for many Americans. “This is real. He can say it’s not, but it is,” said Carney, a hospital administration assistant who has delayed retirement while helping pay off her son’s student loans. “He hasn’t brought anything down.” A Reuters analysis of 26 grocery categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the same categories featured in Trump’s Bedminster display, found prices have risen 3.4% during the first 19 months of his second term. That pace is less than a quarter of what was recorded at the same point in Joe Biden’s term, but it still falls short of Trump’s pledge to lower prices outright, as surges in coffee, beef, and apples have outweighed declines in items like eggs and butter. A White House official pointed to data released Wednesday showing that U.S. consumer prices barely increased in July from the month before, citing it as evidence that inflation is under control. “The July CPI report is further proof that President Trump’s long-term agenda is delivering: prescription drug and auto insurance costs continue to fall, real wages are rising, and beef prices have cooled while other household essentials like eggs, poultry, and dairy remain low,” the official said. Republican enthusiasm wavers Carney, a registered Republican, said high grocery and gasoline prices tied to the Iran war were among the reasons she has grown disillusioned enough to consider skipping the midterms entirely, a sentiment that echoes recent polling showing Republicans less enthusiastic about voting than Democrats this cycle. Carney was one of 17 Republicans and independents Reuters interviewed in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, a battleground that includes Bedminster and where swing voters and turnout could decide the outcome. The race pits Republican incumbent Tom Kean against Democrat Rebecca Bennett, who has worked to capitalize on voter frustration over the cost of living. More than half of those interviewed said they were either undecided or leaning toward Bennett. While grocery prices weighed heavily on many voters, complaints about Kean more often centered on his months-long disappearance from public view earlier this year, which he later attributed to depression. Their views mirror those of other Trump supporters Reuters has interviewed in recent months, voters who continue to stand by the president but say financial pressures have dampened their enthusiasm for showing up in November. That ambivalence presents another challenge for Republicans and raises the stakes for the party’s get-out-the-vote efforts. Francesco Trebbi, a public policy professor at the University of California, Berkeley, recently co-authored research finding that Trump drew stronger support in the 2024 election in counties where inflation outpaced income growth, eroding household purchasing power. With real wages rising only marginally and lagging broader economic growth, Trebbi said that pattern is likely to reverse in November. “I expect the same anti-incumbent shift to happen in 2026, this time possibly weakening Republicans,” he said, describing grocery shopping as “psychologically salient” for voters. “Each time one does it, it is the equivalent of a campaign ad against the incumbent.” Not all Republicans are convinced Presidents have limited direct influence over inflation, which is driven by a range of factors and more directly addressed by the Federal Reserve. Many Republicans appear willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, even as his tariffs and the Iran war have contributed to rising prices. Bonnie Chandler, 64, plans to vote for Kean, saying she believes some companies are keeping prices elevated deliberately to make Trump look bad. She also said the growing influence of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing left her unwilling to consider its candidates. “I’m going to vote Republican. I’m not a woke person. I’m not a communist. I’m not a socialist,” she said. Lauren DeGirolamo, a 34-year-old Trump voter, said issues like education and border security matter more to her than grocery prices, which she believes have stabilized under Trump after steep increases during the Biden administration. “I feel grocery prices are pretty much at level with where they were during Biden. I know some of the key things that I look for, eggs, have gone down,” she said, adding that she plans to vote for Republican candidates in November. According to BLS data, egg prices have fallen nearly 40% under Trump, reflecting a market correction after avian flu-driven shortages triggered a surge that began during Biden’s presidency. Eggs rank among six of the 26 tracked categories showing declines since 2025, alongside butter, bacon, and cooking fats and oils. Most of the items Trump displayed at Bedminster, however, are now more expensive, some substantially so. Uncooked beef has jumped 19.2%, fresh fish and seafood 8.6%, apples 14%, and coffee nearly 23%. A political liability with real stakes A Reuters/Ipsos poll that concluded earlier this month found Trump’s net approval rating on his handling of the cost of living at negative 47%, down sharply from negative 6% at the start of his term. The issue ranks as his weakest by a wide margin, trailing his ratings on the broader economy at negative 35% and immigration at negative 16%. Bennett told Reuters that if elected, she would work to undo Trump’s tariffs, rein in the Iran war, and restore food stamp benefits to help families struggling to afford groceries. The issue is personal for her, she said. “This is not an abstract concept to me,” said Bennett, a military veteran and married mother of two daughters. “For example, beef is very expensive, so we don’t buy beef anymore.” Whether Kean, whose campaign did not respond to requests for comment, can hold his seat may depend on voters like Margaret Derkach, an 84-year-old who typically votes Republican but is now considering switching her vote if economic conditions don’t improve. “The cost of living, as far as homes, apartments and food, the necessities, they have gone up. It’s shocking, shocking,” Derkach said after shopping at discount grocer Aldi. Though she said Trump “inherited a mess” from Biden, Derkach added that she remains undecided. “I have to see,” she said.

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Iran Tells U.S. to Accept “Defeat” as Trump Warns of Prolonged High Gas Prices Amid Hormuz Standoff

August 15, 2026 No Comments

Iran called on the United States to accept defeat on Saturday, while President Donald Trump described Tehran as “very evil” and told Americans to brace for continued high fuel prices as the war between the two countries drags on. Progress toward peace talks remained stalled, and oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed halted, with no indication either side is moving toward ending the conflict that the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi delivered the sharpest rhetoric of the day in a post on X. “This strait will be opened and closed only under Iran’s command, and so long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in fantasies, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade,” Gharibabadi wrote. His comments came as Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran had not decided whether to resume talks with Washington. In an interview published Saturday by Iranian news outlet Shahrara News, Araqchi said the U.S. must meet Iran’s conditions on the strait before shipping can resume through the waterway, which handled roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil before the war began. Trump defends the cost of the conflict Trump addressed the economic toll of the war directly at a political rally in Garden City, New York, on Friday, urging Americans to accept “a tiny little bit more for your gasoline” in exchange for preventing what he called “a very evil country” from acquiring a nuclear weapon, one of the stated justifications he has given for the war. He also floated a dramatic escalation of U.S. ambitions in the region. “After we finish defeating Iran… pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,” Trump said. Throughout the conflict, Trump has shifted between threatening further escalation and claiming a peace deal is close at hand, a pattern that has continued into this latest round of statements. The financial impact of that uncertainty is already visible at the pump. The average U.S. price of a gallon of gasoline stood at about $4.08 on Friday, up 29% from a year earlier, according to the American Automobile Association. Trump campaigned for reelection on a promise to lower energy costs, and Democrats are now working to turn the war’s economic fallout into a campaign issue ahead of November’s congressional elections. Oil markets reflected the tension as well. Crude oil futures rose $1 a barrel on Friday, with benchmark Brent futures on track for a weekly gain of 6.0% and West Texas Intermediate up 5.4% for the week. Iran points to its own economic strain Tehran has matched Washington’s rhetoric in recent days as efforts to reach a lasting resolution appear stuck. Gharibabadi dismissed the idea that U.S. military posturing could resolve the standoff. “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by a tweet or an aircraft carrier, by issuing an order or by delivering an election speech,” he said. Despite that defiance, Iran is showing signs of economic strain from the conflict. President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking on state television, blamed rising inflation in Iran on a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and continued sanctions on the country’s oil exports. Iran’s use of the word “blockade” mirrors the term Washington has applied to its own threats against Iranian vessels attempting to leave their ports, with both sides now describing the other’s actions in nearly identical language. Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both pledged to increase financial pressure on Iran going forward. Bessent told Newsmax’s “Rob Schmitt Tonight” program on Thursday that additional measures targeting Iran would be announced next week. Trump, for his part, framed the broader U.S. campaign as a benefit to the international community. “What we’re doing is a great service for the world, not only for ourselves… and we’re really doing a great job,” he said. Shipping traffic remains near a standstill The practical effect of the standoff shows up most clearly in shipping data. Only two vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, and neither carried visible crude oil shipments, according to analysis from ship-tracking firm Kpler. Some vessels may still be crossing the strait undetected with their transponders switched off, but even accounting for that possibility, current traffic falls far short of the more than 130 ships that used to cross the strait daily before the war began. Vessels that attempt to navigate the strait without Iranian permission face the risk of missile or drone strikes. That risk has already materialized multiple times in the past two days. The UAE accused Iran of attacking a third vessel operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company while it was transiting the strait on Friday, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported. The accusation followed two earlier incidents involving ADNOC vessels in the strait that the UAE blamed on Iran Thursday evening. Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported that a bulk carrier was struck in the hull by an unknown projectile in the strait on Friday. It remains unclear whether that report refers to the same incident involving the ADNOC vessel or a separate attack entirely. A collapsed ceasefire and a widening regional conflict A tentative deal reached in June to end the war has effectively fallen apart. Araqchi rejected the framing that Iran and the U.S. ever had a formal ceasefire to extend. “We did not have a ceasefire in the first place that we would now want to extend,” he said. “We had ‘the end of the war,’ and now there is a new situation.” The conflict’s reach is also extending beyond Iran and the strait itself. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen renewed fears of a broader regional war after Yemen’s internationally recognized government said the group fired six ballistic missiles at the Red Sea port of Mocha on Friday, killing four civilians. The strike adds another front to a conflict that began as a bilateral war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran but has increasingly drawn in Iran-aligned armed groups operating elsewhere in the region. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still largely frozen, oil prices climbing, and both Washington and Tehran doubling down on hardline public statements, there is little indication that either side is prepared to de-escalate in the near term. The economic pressure mounting on both countries, reflected in U.S. gas prices and Iranian inflation alike, has yet to translate into renewed diplomatic movement, leaving the war’s trajectory as uncertain as it has been since fighting began in February.

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UAE Says Iran Attacked ADNOC Vessel in Strait of Hormuz, Third Incident in Under a Week

August 15, 2026 No Comments

The United Arab Emirates said Saturday that Iran attacked a vessel belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz a day earlier, according to the Emirati state news agency WAM. The strike marks the third such incident involving ADNOC vessels in less than a week, deepening a pattern of maritime attacks that has rattled shipping through one of the world’s most critical oil corridors. ADNOC said no injuries were reported in connection with the attack and that the situation was under control, WAM reported. The company has not released further details about the extent of damage to the vessel or the nature of the attack itself. The UAE foreign ministry responded by calling on Tehran to halt what it described as unprovoked attacks, end hostilities, and fully reopen the waterway. Iran had not issued any immediate comment on the accusation as of Saturday. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, addressed the incident directly in a post on X. “We will safeguard our rights to freedom of navigation… while continuing the path of dialogue and prioritising diplomatic options,” Gargash wrote, signaling that Abu Dhabi intends to respond to the pattern of attacks without abandoning efforts toward a diplomatic resolution. A pattern of repeated strikes Saturday’s reported attack follows two earlier incidents in the same week, both of which the UAE also attributed to Iran. Those prior strikes, like Saturday’s, targeted ADNOC vessels transiting the strait, according to Reuters reporting on the earlier attacks. The repetition has hardened the UAE’s public stance, with officials framing the incidents as a sustained campaign rather than isolated events. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have previously issued threats against vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, warning of action against ships linked to Tehran’s adversaries or those that fail to comply with Iranian directives. Those past warnings provide context for the UAE’s accusations, though Iran has not directly claimed responsibility for the recent string of attacks on ADNOC vessels. Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said it had received a report of a bulk carrier being struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on Friday. It remains unclear whether that incident involved the same ADNOC vessel referenced in Saturday’s WAM report or a separate ship altogether. The UKMTO did not immediately specify the carrier’s identity or flag. Why the strait matters The Strait of Hormuz sits between Oman and Iran and functions as one of the busiest chokepoints for global energy trade. Before the current conflict, roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the narrow waterway on its way to markets in Asia, Europe, and beyond. Its geography, a narrow channel bordered by Iranian territory on one side, gives Tehran significant leverage over global shipping traffic whenever tensions in the region escalate. That leverage has become increasingly relevant since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran broke out on February 28. Shipping through the strait has faced repeated disruptions since the conflict began, pushing freight rates higher and forcing shipping companies to reassess security protocols for vessels transiting the area. Insurance costs for tankers and cargo ships passing through the strait have climbed as underwriters price in the elevated risk of attack. ADNOC, Abu Dhabi’s state oil company, ranks among the largest energy producers in the world. The company exports crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products to markets globally, making it a central player in the UAE’s economy and a frequent target of scrutiny whenever regional tensions threaten shipping lanes. The repeated targeting of ADNOC vessels specifically, rather than a broader mix of international shipping, has drawn attention to whether Iran is deliberately singling out Emirati state assets as part of the broader conflict. Diplomatic and security implications The UAE’s response so far has combined public condemnation with an emphasis on continued dialogue. Gargash’s statement reflects that dual approach, asserting the UAE’s right to defend its vessels and interests while explicitly stating a preference for diplomatic channels over escalation. Whether that balance holds will likely depend on whether the attacks continue. Regional shipping operators are watching the situation closely, given the strait’s outsized role in global energy supply chains. Any sustained disruption to traffic through Hormuz carries the potential to affect oil and gas prices well beyond the Gulf region, a dynamic that has played out repeatedly since the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran began earlier this year. Iran’s silence on the specific accusation from ADNOC and the UAE leaves open questions about how Tehran will respond to the latest round of claims. Past incidents in the strait have sometimes drawn direct denials from Iranian officials and, at other times, no response at all, making it difficult to predict whether a formal reply will follow this latest incident. For now, ADNOC has indicated the situation involving Saturday’s vessel is under control, suggesting no immediate operational disruption to the company’s shipping activities. But the accumulation of three attacks in under a week signals that maritime security in the strait remains volatile, with each new incident adding pressure on the UAE to determine how far it is willing to go to protect its fleet without triggering further escalation. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency’s separate report of a bulk carrier strike on Friday adds another layer of uncertainty to the broader picture, raising the possibility that Iran’s actions, or those of other actors operating in the strait, extend beyond ADNOC-specific targets to a wider range of commercial shipping traffic. As the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran continues, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain a flashpoint, with any additional attacks carrying the potential to further disrupt one of the world’s most important energy trade routes and add new pressure on international efforts to de-escalate the broader regional conflict.

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