Canada’s economic dealings with the United States across the border took a sudden dramatic turn Friday after Ontario Premier Doug Ford released a political ad aimed at American voters — one that prompted an immediate and hot-tempered retort from U.S. President Donald Trump, who launched a surprise announcement of scrapping all trade negotiations with Canada.
The Ad That Sparked a Diplomatic Firestorm
The controversy-fomenting advertisement, sponsored by Ford’s provincial government, features a clip of former U.S. President Ronald Reagan warning that tariffs are the harbinger of trade wars and economic doomsday — an unmistakable swipe at Trump’s tariff policy. The prime-time U.S. broadcast advertisement was one piece of Ford’s campaign to condemn protectionist trade policies that have been testing Washington-Ottawa relations.
Trump, posting on Truth Social late Thursday night, denounced the ad as “fraudulent propaganda,” announcing that “ALL TRADE NEGOTIATIONS WITH CANADA ARE HEREBY TERMINATED.”
The move surprised Prime Minister Mark Carney, who since taking office in March has been treading a conciliatory path toward Trump, trying to reach a deal to lift U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum — crucial industries for Canada’s economy.
Ford’s Nationalist Posture and Strategic Retreat
Ford, a pugnacious Conservative politician who is often compared to Trump for his populist and pugilistic style, has long presented himself as a defender of Canadian sovereignty. His “Canada Is Not for Sale” cap and shrill tone have made him a political wild card in Canada-U.S. relations.
Ford threatened this spring to impose surcharges on energy exports to several states in the U.S. if Washington went ahead with new tariffs on metals. He later backed down under pressure from the White House — something Trump later publicly praised as Ford having “backed down”.
In a statement Friday, Ford said that following negotiations with Prime Minister Carney, Ontario would suspend the American ad campaign starting Monday to provide a chance for trade talks to resume. However, he said the ad will be broadcast over the weekend during Toronto Blue Jays World Series games to reach it “to U.S. audiences at the highest levels.”
Analysts Say Trump’s Reaction May Be Political Theater
Some political analysts claim Trump’s outrage is less about the ad itself and more about optics.
“Mr. Trump doesn’t want to be confronted with the facts,” said Asa McKercher, a St. Francis Xavier University political historian. “The ad is pretty representative of what Reagan actually stated on tariffs, and Ford likely struck a chord.”.
Trump had himself complimented the ad previously in the week, saying Tuesday that “If I were Canada, I’d take that same ad also.” His demeanor shifted abruptly, however, after the campaign began gaining momentum on American networks.
McKercher suggested Ford’s hard-hitting, “attack-dog” demeanor may have bitten itself in the back:
“When you use Ford’s approach, there’s always a possibility that you’re going to get slapped,” he said. “Now it might be up to Carney to offer concessions just to get Trump back to the table.”
Economic Fallout and Political Reactions
The Canadian dollar fell marginally following Trump’s declaration, an indication of investor jitter regarding new trade uncertainty. Ontario — Canada’s industrial powerhouse — stands to lose the most should the U.S. reinstate or hike tariffs on its automobile and steel exports, foundations of its economy.
Ford’s bold action received shocked approval across the political spectrum in Canada.
Manitoba Premier Wab Kinew, the NDP’s left-wing leader, urged Ford to “keep running the ads.”
Green Party Leader Elizabeth May yelled “Go Doug Ford!” as she entered Parliament on Friday.
Pollster Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said Ford’s combative tone might end up benefiting him politically.
“Ford has positioned himself as the pugilistic foil to Carney’s measured statesmanship,” she said. “It’s a role that rarely imperils him at home.”
A Familiar Pattern in Trump’s Trade Strategy
It is not the first time Trump suspended trade negotiations with Canada. In June, he temporarily withdrew from Canada’s digital services tax talks, and Carney pulled back on the measure weeks later.
During Justin Trudeau’s previous tenure as Prime Minister, Trump repeatedly threatened to drop the USMCA (United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement) before finally signing a revised version in 2020.
Political pundits say the crisis today, though grave, can also follow a similar path.
“Ford can be the bad cop, and Carney the diplomat who calms the storm,” said Western University political science head Laura Stephenson. “It’s messy, but not beyond repair.”
Ford’s Populism Still Echoes
Despite the turmoil, Ford is politically resilient. Fresh from his third consecutive election victory in February, the premier of Ontario remains to build a reputation as a plain-spoken populist who is not hesitant to “speak his mind.”
Earlier this month, Ford made headlines for recounting how he confronted a suspected shoplifter at a Toronto Home Depot, telling supporters, “Screw this, I’m going after this guy.” The story, though controversial, resonated with voters who see him as a hands-on leader.
Meanwhile, Diamond Isinger, a former U.S.-Canada policy adviser to Trudeau, said Ford’s ad clearly struck a chord south of the border:
If the ad hadn’t succeeded,” she continued, “Trump wouldn’t have responded so aggressively. It’s clearly struck a chord at the top levels.”
The Road Ahead
As the two governments weigh their next move, the episode illustrates the unpredictability of Canada-U.S. relations between two populist leaders who have contrasting approaches. Whether Ford’s risk was a clever political maneuver or an overreach that threatened months of negotiation, this much is true: It has reopened debate about how Canada should deal with its giant southern neighbor in an age when diplomacy and domestic politics increasingly converge.
