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Russia’s gold reserves fall to lowest level since 2022 invasion as Kremlin covers war costs

Russia gold reserves

Russia has drawn down a substantial share of its gold reserves in 2026, part of an effort by the Kremlin to raise cash and plug a growing hole in its budget as the war in Ukraine drags into its fifth year.

The Russian Central Bank reported that gold holdings stood at 73.4 million troy ounces, or 2,282 metric tons, as of the start of July. That figure marks a drop of roughly 43.5 metric tons since January, pulling reserves down to their lowest point since before the full-scale invasion began in February 2022.

The timing of the sell-off overlapped with a run-up in gold prices. The metal traded near $4,800 per ounce during the first four months of the year before slipping back to around $4,000. At that price range, Moscow’s sales have likely brought in more than $5 billion.

Elina Ribakova, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, said the move points to a shrinking pool of options for the Kremlin. “The fact that they’re selling gold means that they’re running out of other more liquid assets,” she told DW. “So there is pressure on the deficit and also pressure on the sources to finance this deficit.”

Defense costs strain the budget

The bulk of the pressure traces back to military spending. Russia’s finance ministry warned the cabinet earlier this year that war-related overspending would hit at least $28 billion in 2026, with additional overruns expected in 2027 and 2028, according to reporting from the Financial Times. Defense outlays have more than quadrupled since 2021, reaching about 16 trillion rubles, or $204 billion, in 2025.

Chris Weafer, a Moscow-based analyst with Macro-Advisory, said the scale of the gold sales is notable but shouldn’t be read as a sign of desperation. “It’s an extraordinary situation, but it’s a relatively normal trend,” he told DW. “It doesn’t represent any element of Russia going broke, running out of money, not having anything else and literally selling the household silver.”

According to Weafer, most of the gold has moved through Russia’s finance ministry via the National Welfare Fund, rather than directly from the central bank. Gold became one of the few assets available to the fund after Western sanctions cut off access to US Treasuries and European government bonds following the 2022 invasion. “Since early 2022, gold was one of the assets that the National Welfare Fund could buy, because US treasuries and bunds weren’t available to them,” he said.

He described the gold as a core liquid holding for the fund, one that exists precisely to be tapped in moments like this. “To that extent, one can argue it is serving the intended purpose,” Weafer said.

Weafer estimated the National Welfare Fund’s total value at around $150 billion, with roughly $50 billion classified as liquid. Keeping that liquid cushion intact matters to the Kremlin beyond the immediate budget math, he said, because a shrinking buffer would invite speculation about a wider financial crisis and weaken Moscow’s negotiating position abroad. “It likes to portray the country as being very stable and very strong, and that $50 billion of cash is an important part of that,” Weafer said.

One factor works in Russia’s favor: it ranks among the world’s top gold producers, meaning it can rebuild reserves by buying directly from domestic mining companies rather than on international markets. Russia currently holds the fifth-largest gold reserves in the world, in the same range as China, France and Italy, though well behind leaders Germany and the United States.

Ribakova pointed to the same advantage. “Russia has an advantage,” she said. “It does produce gold itself. So when it was worried about sanctions, it allocated part of the money into the gold purchases, which they were buying from the domestic producers.”

Oil revenue remains the deciding factor

Russia’s federal budget deficit could exceed official targets by more than 1 trillion rubles, or roughly $12.85 billion, in 2026, based on recent government figures. The shortfall is currently projected at 1.6% of GDP, close to $40 billion, with room to widen further.

Higher oil prices, driven in part by the war in Iran, have given Moscow some breathing room this year by boosting revenue from oil and gas exports. Ribakova said that revenue stream, more than any other factor, determines how long Russia can keep funding the war.

“Everything hinges on that,” she said. “When the oil price is high, Russia gets revenues. It’s easier to borrow, its domestic financial system is healthier. If the oil price drops, say, to sixty or forty, then you immediately have a crisis.”

Both economists agreed that despite the current strain, Russia has enough flexibility to keep financing the war for the foreseeable future by trimming spending outside the defense sector.

“Putin can continue going for years in the current environment,” Ribakova said. “Maybe not making any progress on the front line, which we haven’t seen any progress for the last couple of years, but still being able to throw resources at the war with Ukraine.”

Weafer offered a similar assessment of the near term. “Even if the deficit continues as is, Russia can still find the money and really won’t be in any sort of a financial crisis or a weak geopolitical position over the next 12 to 24 months,” he said.

His outlook dims further out. Weafer pointed to the accumulating cost of running the economy on a war footing, and said the strain is now surfacing as friction inside the Russian government itself.

“It is creating this huge distortion in the economy and creating this longer-term negative picture that’s now creating divisions in government,” he said.

That divide, Weafer said, runs between officials focused on economic growth and the Kremlin’s wartime priorities. Those pushing for a return to normal economic conditions argue the current spending path cannot hold indefinitely, “if you want the economy to go back to a more normal trajectory after peace. That’s the bottom line,” he said.

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George Mensah

George Mensah is a Senior Political & Conflict Correspondent at ClicxPost, covering global politics, international conflict, and economic developments. With five years of experience in breaking news and geopolitical reporting, he delivers fast, accurate analysis on major world events.

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Strait of Hormuz reopening

Trump says Iran talks were productive as Strait reopening nears

August 5, 2026 No Comments

Washington and Tehran edged closer to defusing the conflict over the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, with President Donald Trump describing marathon talks between the two sides as productive and predicting the blockaded waterway would reopen within days. “They had an all-day negotiation,” Trump told Fox News’ “@ Night” program, adding that the strait “is going to be open very soon.” He paired the optimism with a warning aimed at Tehran: “If they back out again, they are going to get hit really hard.” The comments landed as financial markets reacted swiftly. Oil prices dropped and Asian stocks climbed on Wednesday, extending gains from a record-setting session on Wall Street driven by investor bets that a deal to restore shipping through Hormuz could be finalized soon. The strait, controlled in part by Oman, normally handles about a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, making any disruption there a direct hit to global energy markets. Axios reported Tuesday, citing two regional sources and a U.S. official, that Washington and Tehran are nearing an interim agreement to reopen the waterway with Oman’s involvement. According to the report, U.S. officials were pushing for an announcement as early as Wednesday. Iranian state media offered a more cautious account. Citing an informed source, state outlets said an agreement between Iran and Oman over the strait would be delayed “as long as the United States continues to threaten Iran,” a direct pushback against the tone of Trump’s remarks even as both sides describe the underlying talks as active. Qatar Points to Progress Trump’s public confidence follows months of similar predictions that have not yet translated into a ceasefire. Since the war began, the president has repeatedly threatened heavy military retaliation if Iran failed to reach terms, then pointed to negotiating progress that ultimately fell short of ending hostilities. Five months in, Trump has not secured the goals he laid out when the conflict started: dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, limiting its capacity to strike regional adversaries and creating pressure that could lead to the fall of its clerical government. Qatar has emerged as a parallel channel in the diplomatic effort. Doha said earlier this week that mediators were making headway toward ending the conflict, a claim that came shortly after Tehran had denied any talks were taking place. Qatar’s Emiri office said Trump and Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani spoke by phone on Tuesday about narrowing the gap between Washington and Tehran and improving the odds of a durable settlement. Iran’s Foreign Ministry offered its own confirmation of movement. Spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei said talks with Oman over transit through the strait were positive and ongoing, with both sides working to establish safe shipping lanes. Baghaei said the proposed route was designed to protect the sovereign rights and national security of both Iran and Oman, according to state media. Control of the strait itself remains a sticking point. Iran has long argued it should share authority over the waterway with Oman, which sits on the opposite shore, but Tehran rejected an Omani proposal last week that would have created joint oversight and allowed voluntary fees to be collected from passing ships. Iran has kept most traffic through Hormuz halted during the standoff, while the United States continues to enforce a blockade on ships and ports linked to Iran. Red Sea Blockade Adds Pressure The conflict’s reach has extended beyond the Gulf. Yemen’s Houthi movement, which is aligned with Iran, has imposed its own naval blockade on Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, cutting off another route for oil exports. In one recent incident, a projectile struck an India-flagged vessel near Yemen, causing it to capsize. Indian officials said all 14 crew members were rescued. Yemen blamed the Houthis for the attack. The human and economic toll of the war continues to climb. The United Nations’ International Maritime Organization has recorded at least 17 seafarer deaths across 64 incidents in the Strait of Hormuz since fighting began on February 28. Iran’s government has reported separate casualty figures tied to U.S. military action. Tehran says 50 people have been killed and 500 wounded in American strikes since hostilities resumed in late June. That toll was issued before Iran later said a U.S. strike on Qeshm in late July killed a husband, wife and their two-year-old son, a claim that would add to the death count if confirmed. Taken together, Iran has reported more than 3,400 deaths since the war began on February 28, when the United States and Israel launched their campaign. The U.S. military has reported 18 personnel killed over the same period. For now, the gap between public statements from Washington and Tehran remains wide even as both governments point to the same negotiating track. Trump’s prediction of an imminent reopening stands against Iranian state media’s warning that continued U.S. threats could stall any Oman agreement indefinitely. Whether Wednesday brings the announcement Axios’ sources described, or another round of delay, will likely hinge on whether either side is willing to soften its public posture to match the private progress both claim is underway.

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Ceuta Melilla migrant surge

Migrant Surge Reignites Spain-Morocco Dispute Over Enclaves

August 4, 2026 No Comments

More than 50,000 migrants crossed into Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta last week, reigniting a territorial dispute with Morocco that dates back centuries and putting fresh pressure on Madrid’s control over the last European-held territories on the African mainland. Most of those who entered Ceuta have since returned to Morocco, but several thousand remain in the enclave this week, and the surge has renewed long-standing questions about why Spain still holds these territories, why Morocco has never managed to reclaim them, and what residents living inside the enclaves actually want for their future. Two enclaves, a handful of islands, and the last trace of an empire Ceuta and Melilla sit on Morocco’s northern coast, along with a scattering of nearby islands known collectively as the Plazas de Soberanía. That group includes the Chafarinas Islands, the Alhucemas Islands, and the Peñón de Vélez de la Gomera. Together, these territories represent the only pieces of the old Spanish colonial empire still under Spanish control. Ceuta’s history under European rule stretches back to 1415, when it came under Portuguese control before passing to Spain in 1580. Melilla’s Spanish era began even earlier, in 1497, after a Spanish nobleman conquered the city. When Portugal broke away from Spanish rule in 1640 following years of war, Ceuta stayed with Spain rather than reverting to Portuguese control. Yolanda Aixelà Cabré, an anthropologist at IMF-CSIC in Barcelona, said Spain’s foothold in North Africa grew out of losses elsewhere. “Spain reached its greatest extent in Latin America, and with the loss of Cuba, Costa Rica and the Philippines in 1898, it shifted its influence to Africa, although most European colonial powers had already divided it among themselves,” Cabré said. By the time African decolonization swept through the continent in the twentieth century, Ceuta and Melilla were left standing as the only European-controlled territories remaining on the African mainland. Both are legally part of Spain today and sit inside the European Union’s external border, despite their location across the Mediterranean from mainland Spain. Cabré argued that Spain’s attachment to the territories runs deeper than strategy or economics. “For Spain, maintaining these enclaves is fundamental on a symbolic level because they reinforce Spanish grandeur, its imperial past which the State continues to consider a bearer of civilisation in contrast to barbarism, a notion perfectly encapsulated by the repetitive discourse that Columbus, representing the Catholic Monarchs, ‘discovered’ America,” she said. Why Morocco never got the territories back Morocco gained independence from France in 1956, and Spain recognized that independence while holding onto Ceuta and Melilla. Ever since, Morocco has argued that both cities, which it calls “Sebtah and Melilah,” along with the Plazas de Soberanía, belong within its borders. Selim Balouati Lakhloufi, a historian who studies North African history and the Rif region of northern Morocco, said the enclaves have persisted as separate territories because they existed long before the modern Moroccan state took shape. “They are enclaves that have been occupied for centuries,” he told Al Jazeera, adding that their age predates the country trying to reclaim them. Lakhloufi said the dispute has become a reliable talking point in Moroccan domestic politics. “This has always been used by the Moroccan political class as a point of criticism against Spain,” he said. Samir Bennis, a Washington-based political adviser and co-founder of Morocco World News who studies Moroccan foreign policy, said Morocco had chances early in its independence to press the issue internationally but chose not to. “Perhaps this issue would not have had the same detrimental effect on bilateral relations had Moroccan leaders shown greater determination in the early 1960s, during the height of the decolonisation period, to bring the matter before the United Nations and seek recognition of these two cities as colonial territories that should be liberated from any foreign presence,” Bennis said. Bennis pointed to two reasons Morocco held back. The scale of its territorial disputes with Spain was the first obstacle. “The first was the sheer scale of the territorial disputes between Spain and Morocco. Given the difficulty Morocco faced in simultaneously contesting Spanish control over several territories, the Moroccan government decided to proceed gradually in its efforts to recover the parts of Moroccan territory that remained under Spanish rule,” he said. The second factor, Bennis said, was Spain’s own approach to resolving disputes gradually rather than all at once. “The second factor that led the Moroccan leadership to postpone addressing the question of Ceuta and Melilla was the willingness shown by the Spanish authorities to resolve their territorial disputes with Morocco progressively. In the end, this strategy proved highly beneficial for safeguarding Spain’s interests in the two cities,” he said. A political claim, not a legal one Legal experts describe Morocco’s case for the territories as weak. Bennis said Morocco still has some ground to stand on despite that weakness, noting the country can point to historical, geographical and human arguments that complicate Spain’s position, even if those arguments do not amount to a strong legal claim. Jamie Trinidad, a fellow and director of studies in law at Wolfson College, Cambridge University, agreed that Morocco’s legal footing is thin. “It is a political, rather than a legal, claim, similar to Spain’s claim to Gibraltar, which lies across the strait from Ceuta,” Trinidad said. Gibraltar, controlled by Britain, sits on the opposite side of the Strait of Gibraltar from Ceuta. Trinidad said Morocco tried once to get international recognition of the dispute and was turned away. “In the 1970s, Morocco asked the UN to include the territories on the list of ‘Non-Self-Governing Territories’ overseen by the UN’s Special Committee on Decolonisation, but the Moroccan request was ignored by the UN,” he said. Life inside the enclaves, and what residents actually want Roughly 84,000 people live in Ceuta and 86,000 in Melilla. Ceuta’s population includes Christian and Muslim residents, both Spanish and Moroccan, along with day workers who cross the border regularly. Residents there have generally described their daily coexistence as peaceful, though last week’s migrant surge tested that balance directly. Hundreds of Ceuta residents rallied on Sunday, two days after the surge began, to block a planned far-right anti-migrant demonstration, and the pressure was enough to force organizers to cancel the event. Isabel, a Ceuta resident, described the strain the sudden influx placed on the enclave’s usual dynamic. “I am half Christian, half Muslim, as many in Ceuta are. We live peacefully together. But the numbers this time were scary,” she told Al Jazeera. Melilla’s population is similarly mixed, with Spanish and Moroccan residents alongside small Jewish and Sindhi communities. The Sindhi community traces back to Hindu merchants who arrived after India’s partition in 1947. The Plazas de Soberanía, by contrast, are populated mainly by Spanish military personnel rather than civilian residents. Despite the historical ties both cities maintain with Morocco, polling data shows most residents in Ceuta and Melilla want to remain part of Spain. Lakhloufi said that preference has held steady over time. “This has been reflected consistently in public opinion and in the absence of any significant political movement advocating a change in sovereignty,” he said. He added that the economic gap between Morocco and the enclaves plays a direct role in that preference. “Even the population with Moroccan origin want to stay as Spanish and European. This is because the social welfare difference between Morocco and the cities it’s really high,” he said. At the same time, Lakhloufi said, daily life in both cities remains tied closely to Morocco. “Both cities maintain strong historical, cultural and economic ties with Morocco, making cooperation across the border an important aspect of daily life,” he said. Special border rules set the enclaves apart from mainland Spain Ceuta and Melilla fall within the Schengen area, the zone that allows free movement across much of the European Union, but they operate under a special regime rather than the standard Schengen rules. Travel between the enclaves and mainland Spain requires separate border checks, according to the Spanish government. A Spanish government document explains how that, “Schengen checks are carried out on exit by sea or air, the only two routes available. Therefore, no one can travel from Ceuta or Melilla to mainland Spain without being identified by the National Police at the port or the airport. In addition, ferry operators and airlines are required to verify travel documents,” the document states. A shift on Western Sahara adds another layer In March 2022, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez wrote to Morocco’s king confirming Spanish support for Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, territory Spain had controlled until giving it up in 1975. Sánchez called the move “the most serious, realistic and credible” path toward resolving the long-running dispute over that region, and described it as opening “a new stage” in relations between Madrid and Rabat. Cabré said that shift, combined with the pressure created by last week’s migrant surge, could eventually push Spain toward giving up its own claim on Ceuta and Melilla. “Their mere presence is an unsustainable historical anomaly at a time when the decolonisation of European states is being promoted at all levels, like European countries returning of items stolen during colonialism and recognising the citizenship rights of their former colonies,” she said. Lakhloufi does not see that happening anytime soon. He said any changes coming out of last week’s crisis are more likely to affect border management than sovereignty itself. “What may change is the way Spain manages its relationship with Morocco, particularly regarding border management, migration and security cooperation. However, tactical adjustments should not be confused with a shift in Spain’s long-standing position on sovereignty,” he said. He also pointed out where the pressure in this relationship typically originates. “It’s usually Morocco that puts pressure on the borders, not Spain,” he said. What happens next With several thousand migrants still in Ceuta and tensions inside the enclave still elevated after Sunday’s counter-protest, Spain faces pressure to respond on two fronts at once: managing the immediate aftermath of the border surge and deciding how, if at all, that event reshapes its broader relationship with Morocco. Based on the assessments of researchers who study the dispute, a change in day-to-day border and security cooperation looks far more likely in the near term than any shift in Spain’s underlying claim to the territories. Public opinion inside Ceuta and Melilla, which has consistently favored remaining Spanish, gives Madrid little domestic incentive to alter that position regardless of how the migration crisis develops in the weeks ahead.

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Ivory Coast cocoa harvest 2026

Ivory Coast Cocoa Farmers Warn of Risks Ahead of Harvest

August 4, 2026 No Comments

Cocoa farmers across Ivory Coast say their trees are showing strong early growth this season, but several warned that the crop’s fate over the coming weeks will depend heavily on whether they can apply fertilizer and pesticide in time and whether rainfall in September stays within a manageable range. Ivory Coast, the world’s largest cocoa producer, is currently in the middle of its rainy season, which typically runs from April through mid-November. Farmers interviewed across multiple growing regions described a season that has been promising so far, but one that remains vulnerable to both disease and cold stretches if conditions shift in the wrong direction over the next month. Soil moisture holds, but treatment window is narrowing Several farmers said soil moisture levels remain high enough to support tree development for several more weeks, even in areas where rainfall has come in below the five-year average. That moisture has kept trees growing, but farmers stressed that growth alone will not guarantee a strong harvest without proper crop treatment in the coming weeks. Kouassi Kouame, who farms near Soubre in the western region, said the temperature swings this season have made timely treatment more urgent than usual. “It can get very cold at times. Now is the time to treat the crops, otherwise there will be significant losses,” Kouame said. His region received just 0.6 millimeters of rain last week, 11.6 millimeters below the five-year average for that period. Kouame’s warning points to a recurring theme among farmers this season: strong current conditions do not eliminate the need for active management. Fertilizer and pesticide application this month, farmers said, will determine whether the fruit currently developing on the trees survives to harvest or dies before it can be picked. Southern and eastern regions report abundant fruit In the southern regions of Agboville and Divo, and in the eastern region of Abengourou, farmers reported plenty of fruit still developing on the trees despite below-average rainfall in those areas. The consistency of fruit growth across regions with different rainfall totals suggests the moisture reserves built up earlier in the season have so far been sufficient to carry trees through drier stretches. Farmers in these regions said that if weather conditions stay favorable through September, the harvest for the main crop should become abundant starting in mid-October and continuing through December at a minimum. That timeline lines up with the typical harvest window for Ivory Coast’s main cocoa crop, though farmers were careful to frame it as dependent on what happens in the weeks ahead rather than a guaranteed outcome. Central and west-central regions flag a different risk: too much rain The picture shifts somewhat in Daloa, in the west-central region, and in Bongouanou and Yamoussoukro in central Ivory Coast. Farmers in these areas, which have also seen below-average rainfall this season, said their plantations have yielded well so far. But unlike farmers further south, they are more concerned about the opposite problem: too much rain arriving in September. Albert N’Zue, who farms near Daloa, described fruit that is currently growing well in size, but he warned that a wet September could undo that progress. “Many fruits are growing in size, promising a bountiful harvest. However, if there is heavy rain in September, there will be a risk of disease in the plantations,” N’Zue said. His area recorded just 2.4 millimeters of rain last week, 17 millimeters below the five-year average. The concern in these regions centers on disease, which tends to spread more easily in cocoa plantations when heavy rainfall follows a drier stretch, creating the kind of humid conditions that allow fungal infections to take hold in the pods. Farmers in Daloa, Bongouanou and Yamoussoukro appear to be watching the same weather pattern that farmers further south are hoping continues, but from the opposite angle: for them, the current dry conditions are actually protecting the crop, and a sudden increase in rainfall next month is the bigger threat. A season defined by regional contrasts Taken together, the reports from across Ivory Coast’s growing regions describe a crop that is developing well overall, but one where the specific risks vary significantly by location. In the west, near Soubre, the concern is cold temperatures and the need for timely fertilizer and pesticide treatment. In the south and east, around Agboville, Divo and Abengourou, the outlook is largely positive, with farmers expecting a strong main crop harvest if conditions hold. In the west-central and central regions, including Daloa, Bongouanou and Yamoussoukro, the worry is reversed: farmers there need the current dry pattern to continue, at least through September, to avoid a spike in plantation disease. Weekly temperatures across the country ranged between 24.4 and 27.4 degrees Celsius, or 75.9 to 81.3 degrees Fahrenheit, a range that farmers in cooler areas like Soubre say is already testing crop resilience even without accounting for further swings later in the season. What comes next The next several weeks will likely determine how this season’s main crop turns out. Farmers who need treatment applied, like those near Soubre, are racing against the calendar to get fertilizer and pesticide into their plantations before cold snaps or fruit loss set in. Farmers watching rainfall patterns in central and west-central regions are hoping September stays dry enough to avoid disease outbreaks that could undercut what has so far been a productive growing season. If both groups get the outcomes they are hoping for, the main crop harvest starting in mid-October is expected to be strong. If not, the abundance farmers are currently describing on the trees may not fully translate into the volumes reaching market by December.

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SpaceX first earnings report

SpaceX Posts 92% Revenue Growth in First Earnings Since IPO

August 4, 2026 No Comments

SpaceX posted a 92% jump in quarterly revenue on Tuesday in its first earnings report since going public, with the company crediting rapid growth in its Starlink satellite internet business and its expanding artificial intelligence operations for the surge. The company reported $7.8 billion in revenue for the second quarter, beating analyst expectations, even as it posted a net loss of $541 million for the period. The results mark the first real test of how investors will judge SpaceX now that its finances are subject to public scrutiny rather than the private disclosures the company relied on for two decades. A rocky start as a public company SpaceX shares have pulled back sharply since the company’s stock market debut, as investors weighed whether a valuation of 77 times expected revenue can hold up over time. That kind of multiple puts SpaceX in territory usually reserved for early-stage software companies rather than a business built on rockets, satellites and heavy infrastructure spending, and some investors have questioned whether the numbers justify the price. Tuesday’s earnings report gives those investors their first hard data since the IPO to test that skepticism. A revenue jump of 92% is a strong number by almost any standard, but the accompanying net loss shows that SpaceX is still spending heavily to build out the businesses driving that growth, particularly its satellite network and its newer AI ventures. Starlink and AI drive the numbers Starlink has grown from a niche satellite internet service into one of SpaceX’s core revenue engines, and the company pointed to that business as a primary driver of the quarter’s growth. The unit provides internet access through a constellation of low-orbit satellites, a model that has expanded well beyond its original use case of connecting remote areas and now serves customers ranging from individual households to airlines and government agencies. SpaceX also cited its AI business as a contributor to the revenue increase, though the earnings materials released so far do not break out exactly how much of the $7.8 billion came from each unit. That lack of detail is likely to be a focus for analysts on Tuesday’s call, given how closely investors are watching whether the company’s spending on AI and space projects can be supported by the profits Starlink generates. Leadership set to face investor questions SpaceX leaders were scheduled to host a webcast at 4:30 p.m. in New York, 2030 GMT, to walk through the results and take questions. Chief executive Elon Musk, president Gwynne Shotwell and chief financial officer Bret Johnsen were all set to speak on the call. The session gives Musk his first opportunity as a public-company CEO to defend SpaceX’s spending plans directly to shareholders, a dynamic that did not exist when the company operated as a private business answerable mainly to a smaller group of institutional investors and insiders. Analysts are expected to press the leadership team on whether Starlink’s margins are strong enough to keep funding the company’s ambitions in AI and deep space projects without further diluting shareholders or taking on additional debt. The size of the quarterly net loss, even against a large revenue beat, suggests that question will not go away regardless of how strong the growth numbers look on the surface. Merger talk with Tesla looms over the call Investors are also expected to raise questions about a potential merger between SpaceX and Tesla, an idea that has circulated with increasing seriousness in recent months. Complicating that prospect is Tesla’s business footprint in China, which adds regulatory and political layers to any combination between the two companies that Musk also leads. A merger of that scale would tie together two of Musk’s largest ventures under one corporate structure, something that has no clean precedent given the different regulatory environments each company operates under. Tesla is an automaker with significant manufacturing and sales operations in China, a market where SpaceX has essentially no presence due to national security restrictions on satellite and launch technology. Any merger discussion would need to navigate that gap carefully, and it remains unclear how far talks have actually progressed beyond public speculation. Executives may address the merger question directly on the earnings call, given how much attention it has drawn from investors trying to understand SpaceX’s long-term corporate structure now that it trades publicly. What the numbers mean going forward Tuesday’s report gives the market its clearest picture yet of how SpaceX’s underlying businesses are actually performing, separate from the hype that surrounded its IPO. A 92% revenue increase signals real demand for Starlink and the company’s AI offerings, but the accompanying loss shows SpaceX has not yet reached the point where that growth translates into profit. For a company trading at nearly 80 times expected revenue, that gap between growth and profitability is likely to remain the central question for investors in the coming quarters. Tuesday’s webcast, and any details Musk, Shotwell or Johnsen offer about spending plans, margin timelines or the Tesla merger question, will shape whether Wall Street views the pullback in SpaceX shares since the IPO as a temporary correction or the start of a longer reassessment of the company’s valuation. The next earnings report will show whether the growth pace seen this quarter can continue, and whether the losses tied to AI and space spending begin to narrow as those businesses mature.

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Pezeshkian resignation denial

Iran’s Pezeshkian Denies Resignation Claims Amid Hormuz Talks

August 4, 2026 No Comments

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has publicly denied claims that he repeatedly offered to resign, pushing back against hardline critics as his government edges toward a deal with the United States over shipping access through the Strait of Hormuz. The denial came during a television interview marking two years since Pezeshkian took office, a broadcast that was meant to showcase progress but instead turned into a defense of his authority. “If I want to resign, I will officially announce that I have resigned. I will not resign, I will stand,” Pezeshkian said, accusing unnamed rivals of trying to create division inside the country. A resignation claim with a powerful source The allegations against Pezeshkian did not come from a minor figure. Mohammad Bagher Kharazi, who is connected by marriage to Mojtaba Khamenei, Iran’s new supreme leader, told Iranian media that Pezeshkian had grown frustrated at being shut out of major decisions. Kharazi said the president had offered to resign so many times, both verbally and in writing, that Khamenei eventually warned him he would accept the next threat as final. Khamenei’s office rejected the claim outright on Tuesday, calling it “fundamentally false and untrue.” Kharazi’s account gained traction partly because of who he is related to. He is the brother-in-law of Massoud Khamenei, the supreme leader’s younger brother. Iranian reporters who cover the government say Kharazi has previously made allegations that were never substantiated, and it remains unclear whether he has met with the supreme leader since Khamenei’s appointment to the role in March. The timing of the dispute matters. Mojtaba Khamenei took over the supreme leader position after his father was killed in an Israeli bombing on the first day of the war between the two countries. Khamenei has not appeared or spoken publicly since, and his exact location has been withheld, according to Kharazi’s claims, out of concern that foreign intelligence services could track him. Officials close to Pezeshkian call the claims lies Mehdi Tabatabaei, a senior member of the president’s office, dismissed the resignation reports as “complete nonsense and lies.” Writing on social media, he described the source of the allegations as a “sinister coalition of lying, deceitful and reckless extremism” and argued its backers were still trying to overturn results from an election they lost two years ago. “They have become puppets of Iran’s enemies,” Tabatabaei wrote. Ahmad Zeidabadi, a reformist journalist inside Iran, said the claims served no purpose beyond stoking tension between factions already at odds over how to handle relations with Washington. A dispute over the Strait of Hormuz sits behind the politics The resignation controversy erupted as the United States and European governments push for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes. Under the arrangement being discussed, ships would enter the strait along a path close to Iranian territory but would exit through a route running through both Iranian and Omani waters. American and European officials are pressing Oman to accept a temporary version of the agreement. Officials in Muscat are reportedly concerned that the terms would leave Iran with lasting control over a channel that much of the world’s oil trade depends on. Pezeshkian addressed the broader US relationship on Sunday, describing a memorandum of understanding reached with Washington in June as a foundation for Iran’s future foreign policy. He said Iran “must strive to compel the enemy to remain committed to what it has signed,” a comment aimed at reassuring skeptics that the agreement would not simply be discarded by the American side. That reassurance has done little to satisfy Iran’s hardline establishment. On Monday, the conservative-dominated Assembly of Experts issued a statement calling any hope for a settlement with the US “futile.” The body went further, describing what it called “whispers of capitulation in the name of defending peace” as an “unforgivable betrayal,” and said trusting the current American government was nothing more than a mirage. Khamenei himself weighed in on the broader question of talks with Washington back in April, saying he opposed negotiations with the US in principle but had allowed them to proceed out of deference to Pezeshkian. Pezeshkian defends his record on the military and January protests During the same interview, Pezeshkian said he remained in full agreement with Iran’s military leadership, pushing back on any suggestion that he had been sidelined by war-time commanders. He also addressed casualty figures from protests in January, saying that claims of 30,000 deaths were never backed up by anyone willing to provide evidence. The interview appeared designed to counter a growing perception in Tehran that Pezeshkian’s preference for consensus-building amounts to weakness, particularly at a moment when hardline factions are gaining louder platforms to argue against any accommodation with Washington. What comes next The dispute over Pezeshkian’s future leaves Iran’s government publicly split at a delicate moment in the Hormuz negotiations. With Oman under pressure to accept terms it views warily, and with hardliners inside Iran calling any US deal a betrayal, Pezeshkian’s ability to hold his position, both politically and literally, may determine whether the shipping agreement moves forward or stalls entirely. His office has made clear it intends to fight the resignation narrative directly rather than let it stand unanswered, a sign that the coming weeks are likely to bring further public clashes between his government and its hardline critics.

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UK heatwave farming impact

Heatwaves scorch England’s apples, starve cattle and cut grain yields

August 4, 2026 No Comments

England’s summer heatwaves are pushing fruit growers, cattle farmers and grain producers into a season of shrinking harvests, spoiled crops and tough financial choices, with growers in Kent, Surrey and West Horsley all reporting damage that in some cases has cut yields by nearly half. At Amsbury Farm near Maidstone, Kent, Clive Baxter manages roughly 200 acres (81 hectares) of fruit trees. He says the repeated spells of extreme heat this summer have hit nearly every part of his operation. “Everything is suffering now in the heatwaves,” Baxter said. Bramley apples, a variety long associated with English cooking, are proving especially vulnerable. “Bramley apples are very susceptible to sunburn so we are spraying them with a clay substance that acts like suncream,” Baxter said. He explained that traditional English varieties, including Bramleys and Coxes, were never bred to withstand the kind of sustained heat the region has experienced this year. The damage becomes severe once temperatures climb past a certain threshold. “Once the temperature gets to 30 degrees and above, if there is no wind, the juice starts to boil in the apples and cooks the fruit,” Baxter said. “When this happens it means the fruit is of no value at all.” To protect what remains of the crop, Baxter’s team has started thinning the trees, deliberately removing some fruit so the rest has a better chance of surviving. He said the trees themselves are showing signs of strain. “So stressed” is how he described them, adding that the practice, while necessary, means lower yields and smaller apples overall. Cattle farmers run out of grass The heat is creating a different kind of pressure eighty miles away in Brockham, Surrey, where Nellie Budd raises 247 cows. For Budd, the central problem this summer has been simple: there is not enough food for the herd to eat. “We have had 47 days now with no rain,” Budd said. “Grass normally is so resilient, once we cut it for hay or cut it for silage it will come back and we can continue grazing, but, this year, with the heat, there has been no let up.” With pasture failing to regrow, Budd has started feeding her cattle hay that was meant to carry them through winter, a move that leaves her with a shortfall she will need to make up before the cold months arrive. The shortage is already changing the size of the animals she can bring to market. “With limited food to eat, the carcasses are just not getting big enough which means they are not going to be the size for what we want because they are beef cattle,” Budd said. Cutting the size of her herd is not something she is willing to consider, even as costs rise. “We have been putting an overlay in our grasslands to try and help but, this year, with no moisture in the ground, we couldn’t do anything,” she said. Reducing cattle numbers, she added, is not an option, because her family “could not afford to live” if she scaled back. Budd said she is left hoping conditions change before next year’s growing season begins. “Everything is a gamble for farmers and we just hope weather patterns cause a wetter year next year,” she said. Grain yields down by a third or more Further west, at Woolgars Farm in West Horsley, arable farmer and contractor Peter Knight is currently harvesting around 2,000 acres (809 hectares), and the numbers coming in are worse than he expected. He traces the trouble back to the first heatwave in May, which struck right as his spring barley, a crop used mainly for brewing beer, needed steady moisture to establish itself. “Spring barley, which is used for making beer, is planted in March and it has had very little rain on it since then,” Knight said. The timing compounded the damage. “The crops flower in early June but, at that time the heat puts it under stress, which means we immediately know the yield is going to be impacted,” he said. Knight said the dry spell never really let up through the grain-filling period, the weeks when kernels normally bulk up in size and weight. Without rain during that window, the plants simply could not put on the growth needed for a strong harvest. He is now watching a pattern repeat itself. “We are very worried because three out of the last five years we have had very similar weather patterns in terms of drought-like conditions and trying to manage our way through that is very difficult,” Knight said. Unlike some fruit and vegetable operations, arable farms of this scale have few tools to fight back against drought. Knight said irrigating thousands of acres of grain is not realistic given the cost and infrastructure it would require. Instead, he has adjusted his methods where he can. “We are doing our best by trying to sow earlier in the spring and we are doing less cultivations which helps preserve moisture but this year the yield here is reduced by around 30-40% on what we would normally expect,” he said. Knight said the consequences extend beyond his own farm. If the current weather pattern continues to disrupt arable output across the country, he expects Britain will need to lean more heavily on imported grain to make up the difference. A season of adjustments across the industry Baxter’s spraying regimen, Budd’s early dip into winter feed stores, and Knight’s earlier sowing and reduced cultivation all point to the same reality: farmers across different sectors are making real-time changes to how they operate, not waiting for the season to end before responding. None of the three describe the heat as a one-off. Knight’s reference to three drought-affected years out of the last five suggests a pattern rather than an isolated bad summer, and Budd’s decision to protect her herd size despite the financial strain signals she expects to need that stock again once conditions improve. For now, the fruit that survives will carry a higher cost of production, the cattle coming to market will run smaller than usual, and the grain harvest at Woolgars Farm will fall well short of a typical year. Whether next year brings the wetter conditions farmers are hoping for remains the open question hanging over the rest of the 2026 growing season.

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Trump Iran talks

Trump Says US-Iran Talks Underway as Tehran Denies Negotiations

August 4, 2026 No Comments

Confusion over the state of talks between the United States and Iran deepened on Tuesday, as conflicting statements from Washington and Tehran left the trajectory of their five-month war unclear, even as a fresh attack on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz underscored how much is still at stake for global energy markets. President Donald Trump told reporters Monday that negotiations with Iran were actively under way, framing the moment as a final opportunity for Tehran to reach an agreement. Iranian officials, however, flatly denied that any such talks were happening, let alone planned. Two governments, two very different accounts “They are going on right now,” Trump said during an Oval Office event when asked about the status of negotiations. He said the discussions were taking place at the request of several regional powers, including Iran itself, along with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. “This is a last chance for them to sign a good document,” he added. The remarks followed Trump’s decision over the weekend to call off what he described as “massive attacks” he had authorized against Iran, citing the prospect of talks as the reason for standing down. It was not the first time he has taken that approach. Over the course of the conflict, Trump has repeatedly threatened major military action only to pull back at the last moment, often pointing to diplomatic openings as justification. Iran’s account of events told a different story entirely. Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei said earlier Monday that no negotiations with the United States were taking place and that none were scheduled. He said Iran had no intention of hosting foreign delegations or dispatching negotiators abroad in the near term. According to Baghaei, every Iranian negotiator remained inside the country, with the exception of Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi, who was on a religious pilgrimage in Iraq at the time. The only active discussions Iran acknowledged, he said, involved Oman, and concerned management of the Strait of Hormuz rather than any broader settlement with Washington. A dangerous strait grows more dangerous While the two sides disputed whether talks existed, activity in the Gulf offered its own signal. A cargo vessel reported being struck by an unidentified projectile near the strait off Oman’s coast, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency. The incident added to an already tense standoff in the waterway, which handles roughly a fifth of the world’s crude oil and natural gas shipments and has seen transit slow to a crawl since Iran effectively blockaded the route earlier in the conflict. Shipping data from Kpler showed just six vessels, three tankers and three bulk carriers, passed through the strait on Monday, down from seven the day before. The steady decline in traffic reflects how thoroughly the conflict has disrupted one of the world’s most important energy corridors, even as diplomatic signals suggest the two sides may be inching toward some kind of resolution. Markets respond to hope, not certainty Despite the mixed messages out of Washington and Tehran, financial markets moved as though de-escalation were within reach. Brent crude futures dropped roughly 7 percent Monday, settling around $83.77 a barrel, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at a record high. Asian stocks and oil prices ticked higher again on Tuesday, suggesting investors were, for the moment, betting on easing tensions rather than further conflict. That optimism sits somewhat uneasily alongside the assessment offered by regional analysts, who argue Iran is playing a longer game. Gulf officials and outside experts say Tehran appears to be counting on its ability to outlast Washington by using the region’s trade routes, shipping lanes and energy infrastructure as leverage, steadily raising the cost of continued confrontation until the United States and its allies conclude that accommodation is cheaper than containment. “Their big advantage is that they can hurt the regional states and the global economy,” said Michael Knights of the Washington Institute, describing the strategic logic behind Iran’s approach to the standoff. Trump’s Truth Social broadside Later Monday, Trump escalated his rhetoric toward Tehran in a post on Truth Social, describing Iran’s leadership as “unbelievably duplicitous.” He claimed Iranian officials had requested a meeting and that additional talks were scheduled for the “immediate future,” a claim that stood in direct contradiction to Baghaei’s statement earlier the same day. Trump also reiterated his assertion that the U.S. Navy maintains full control over the Strait of Hormuz, writing: “‘The United States Wall of Steel!’ Nothing gets through to Iran, unless we want it to, and nothing will get through, unless a Deal, or Total Surrender, is accomplished.” The statement reflects the maximalist framing Trump has used throughout the conflict, even as the practical reality in the strait, marked by attacks on shipping and sharply reduced vessel traffic, suggests a more contested and volatile picture than “total control” would imply. A pattern that keeps repeating Monday’s contradictory signals fit a broader pattern that has defined the war since Trump launched “Operation Epic Fury” alongside Israel more than five months ago. Trump has threatened significant military escalation on multiple occasions, only to step back and cite diplomatic contacts as the reason. Iran, for its part, has publicly refused to negotiate with Washington since a memorandum of understanding the two countries signed in June collapsed in early July. That collapse remains a central point of dispute between the two governments. Washington has argued the memorandum required Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping traffic. Tehran counters that the agreement’s text explicitly preserved Iran’s authority over traffic through the waterway, leaving the two sides with fundamentally incompatible readings of the same document. Five months into the conflict, Trump has yet to achieve any of the objectives he laid out at its outset: dismantling Iran’s nuclear program, curbing Tehran’s capacity to strike regional rivals, and creating the conditions for Iranians to overthrow their clerical leadership. Each round of U.S. pressure has instead been met by escalating Iranian responses targeting American forces in the region, Washington’s Gulf Arab allies, and commercial shipping, responses that have, so far, each ended with Trump stepping back from further escalation rather than following through. What comes next remains uncertain The disagreement over whether talks are even taking place captures the broader difficulty of assessing where the conflict stands. Trump’s public statements point toward imminent diplomacy and a possible resolution. Iran’s public statements point toward continued stalemate, with only narrow, technical discussions occurring through Oman regarding the strait itself. Markets, for now, appear to be pricing in the more optimistic version of events. But the attack on shipping near Hormuz, combined with the sharp drop in vessel traffic through the strait, suggests that whatever diplomatic movement may or may not be occurring, the practical risks to global energy flows have not meaningfully eased. Until Washington and Tehran can agree on the basic facts of their own negotiations, let alone the substance of any deal, the strait, and the wider region, are likely to remain a flashpoint capable of unsettling markets on short notice.

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Bangladesh Hasina India

Bangladesh Presses India Over Hasina’s Planned Address From New Delhi

August 4, 2026 No Comments

Bangladesh has pressed India for clarity over former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s planned virtual address to a New Delhi audience, warning that continued political activity by the ousted leader risks damaging relations between the two countries just as they attempt to rebuild ties. The appeal, delivered publicly for the first time, comes ahead of an August 5 event organized by the Foreign Correspondents’ Club of South Asia in the Indian capital. The gathering marks the second anniversary of the student-led uprising that forced Hasina from power, and organizers say she is expected to address attendees by video link alongside her son, Sajeeb Wazed Joy, and other speakers. Dhaka draws a line Bangladesh’s State Minister for Foreign Affairs, Shama Obaed Islam, told reporters late Monday that her government wants India to state its position clearly. “We are moving forward with India with a forward-looking approach. We don’t want that progress to be affected,” she said. “India has to be clear about its stance.” Islam said Dhaka has repeatedly raised concerns with New Delhi over political statements made by Hasina and other Awami League figures while residing on Indian soil. “We do not want India-Bangladesh relations to be harmed by statements from fugitive accused individuals,” she said, adding that Indian officials had previously signaled they did not expect exiled figures to engage in political activity from within India’s borders. She was careful to note that the New Delhi event itself was not organized by the Indian government, but said Dhaka would pursue the matter through diplomatic channels if the appearance goes forward as planned. The Foreign Correspondents’ Club of South Asia did not immediately respond to questions about Bangladesh’s objections, and India’s foreign ministry had not issued a response as of Monday night. A fugitive who says she’ll return Hasina, 78, has lived in India since fleeing Bangladesh in August 2024 as mass protests brought down her government after more than a decade in power. Despite the extradition request Dhaka has pursued since her departure, and despite a 2025 death sentence handed down over her role in the deadly crackdown on demonstrators, Hasina told Reuters in a recent interview that she intends to return to Bangladesh in December. That crackdown, according to United Nations estimates, killed as many as 1,400 people during weeks of unrest that ultimately toppled her administration. Hasina has rejected the death sentence as legally void, maintaining her innocence even as Bangladeshi authorities continue building a case for her return. Her continued presence in India, and her willingness to speak publicly on political matters from there, has become a recurring irritant in the relationship between the two countries. The upcoming address is expected to touch on the same uprising that ended her rule, adding a symbolic edge to Dhaka’s objections. A relationship in repair The dispute surfaces at a delicate moment for India-Bangladesh relations. Ties frayed significantly following Hasina’s ouster, but both governments have moved more recently toward renewed engagement since Tarique Rahman’s administration took office after February’s election. That shift has included efforts on both sides to expand cooperation and stabilize a relationship that had grown tense during the transition period. Bangladesh’s latest comments suggest officials in Dhaka view Hasina’s planned appearance as a test of how far that rapprochement extends. By publicly calling on India to clarify its position, rather than raising the issue solely through private diplomatic channels, Bangladesh appears to be signaling that it expects New Delhi to actively discourage political activity by exiled Awami League figures, not merely tolerate it as a private matter beyond its control. Whether India responds directly to that expectation, or continues treating events like the FCCSA gathering as outside its jurisdiction, may shape how quickly the two countries can move past the friction that has defined the relationship since Hasina’s departure. What comes next For now, the event is still scheduled to proceed on August 5, and there is no indication that Indian authorities intend to intervene. Islam’s comments leave open the possibility that Dhaka will escalate its concerns diplomatically if the appearance goes ahead as planned, though she did not specify what form that escalation might take. The broader extradition effort remains unresolved as well. Bangladesh has pursued Hasina’s return since 2024, a process complicated by her continued residence in India and the lack of any public indication that New Delhi plans to act on the request. Her own stated intention to return in December, delivered independently of any formal extradition process, adds another layer of uncertainty to how and when she might actually face the charges pending against her at home. As the second anniversary of the uprising approaches, the dispute over her planned address underscores how unresolved questions about Hasina’s status, both legal and political, continue to shape the terms on which Bangladesh and India are trying to rebuild their relationship. The coming days are likely to clarify whether India intends to address Dhaka’s concerns directly or leave the matter to play out through the correspondents’ club event as scheduled.

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Japan defence white paper

Japan Frames Military Buildup as Path to Prosperity Amid China Tensions

August 3, 2026 No Comments

Japan’s Defence Ministry has begun making an argument that would have seemed unusual just a few years ago: that building more weapons is not simply about safety, but about making the country richer. The claim appears throughout the ministry’s newly released annual white paper, which frames the country’s expanding military buildup as a driver of economic growth rather than a drain on public resources. The document arrives as Japan continues to shed decades of postwar restraint on military activity, restrictions that once capped defence spending and limited the scope of what Japanese forces could do. This year’s assessment calls for the country to lean harder into defence-related technology, funnel support toward startups working in the sector, and rely more heavily on commercial components when building weapons systems, an approach that mirrors how militaries elsewhere have tried to speed up production while cutting costs. A pitch aimed at the public purse According to a Defence Ministry presentation accompanying the report, the white paper “stresses that investment in defence benefits the wider economy and people’s lives.” That framing is not incidental. It tracks closely with Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s broader economic approach, which has leaned on large-scale state spending as a tool to stimulate growth across multiple sectors, defence now among them. The messaging shift is visible even on the cover of the document itself. Rather than the soldiers, weapons hardware and military insignia that have marked previous editions, this year’s white paper features an anime-style illustration of a smiling family set against a gleaming, futuristic city skyline. A Defence Ministry official said the artwork was chosen deliberately to project a “futuristic image,” a marked departure from the more traditional, hardware-focused visuals Japan’s defence establishment has used in the past. The redesign signals an attempt to soften how the buildup is presented to ordinary citizens, positioning it less as preparation for conflict and more as an investment in national advancement. China named as the central concern Beneath the rebranding, the substance of the white paper remains focused on regional threats, particularly from China. The report states plainly that “China’s military activities and other actions are a matter of serious concern to Japan and the international community, and represent Japan’s greatest strategic challenge.” That language lands amid an already tense diplomatic backdrop. In November, Chinese officials reacted angrily after Takaichi suggested that Japan’s Self-Defense Forces could be deployed if a Chinese attack on Taiwan also threatened Japan’s own survival. Beijing labeled the comment “egregious” and demanded she withdraw it, a sign of how sensitive the Taiwan question has become for Tokyo’s relationship with its largest regional rival. Military analysts expect Takaichi’s government to build on that concern in a forthcoming national security strategy, which is widely anticipated to call for further increases in defence spending. The core rationale, according to those familiar with the government’s thinking, is deterrence: convincing Beijing that any move against Taiwan would carry costs steep enough to avoid, given the risk that such a conflict could draw Japan into a prolonged and direct confrontation. The financing question remains open Japan’s military expansion is already the largest since the Second World War, and financing it has required a mix of tax increases, spending reforms, and one-off revenue measures. That combination has helped push defence-related spending to roughly 2 percent of gross domestic product, a threshold that would have been politically difficult to reach even a decade ago. What remains unresolved is how Takaichi’s government plans to fund any additional expansion beyond that level. Japan’s public finances are already under considerable strain, and the prime minister has not laid out a clear plan for covering further increases without adding to that pressure. The scale of competing budgetary demands is evident in the government’s recent fiscal decisions. Takaichi’s administration secured a record 122.3 trillion yen budget for the fiscal year running through March 2027, then followed it with a supplementary package worth 3.1 trillion yen intended to help households and businesses absorb higher energy costs. Balancing that kind of household relief spending against a growing defence budget will likely become a defining fiscal challenge for her government in the years ahead. Where the money is going The bulk of Japan’s new defence spending to date has been directed toward long-range missile systems, particularly those capable of striking targets more than 1,000 kilometers, or about 621 miles, away. That capability marks a significant shift for a country that long avoided developing strike capacity beyond its own borders, reflecting how far Tokyo’s security posture has moved from its postwar defensive-only stance. Looking ahead, officials expect a growing share of any additional spending to shift toward drones and other unmanned systems, a category of weaponry that has taken on outsized importance since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Ukrainian forces have relied extensively on unmanned systems throughout that conflict, both for reconnaissance and direct strikes, and Japanese planners appear to be drawing lessons from that experience as they consider how future conflicts, including any potential crisis over Taiwan, might unfold. A buildup with economic ambitions Taken together, the white paper reflects a Japan trying to do two things simultaneously: respond to a security environment its own government describes as increasingly dangerous, and convince a public wary of past militarism that the resulting spending will pay economic dividends rather than simply draining the treasury. Whether that argument holds up will depend largely on how Takaichi’s administration answers the financing question it has so far left open, and on how the security picture in East Asia continues to evolve in the months ahead.

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Trump Exxon Chevron

Trump Blasts Exxon and Chevron for “Too Much Money” as Gas Prices Surge

August 3, 2026 No Comments

President Donald Trump turned his sights on two of America’s largest oil companies this week, accusing ExxonMobil and Chevron of pocketing excessive profits while ordinary drivers pay more at the pump. The rebuke marks an unusual rift between the president and an industry he has otherwise championed since returning to the White House. Speaking to reporters on Monday, Trump singled out both companies by name just days after they posted strong second-quarter results. “I don’t like it,” he said. “Chevron, too much money. ExxonMobil, too much. Too much money.” The comments came as the war in Iran continues to push oil prices upward, squeezing consumers even as producers report some of their best quarters in years. Neither Exxon nor Chevron responded immediately to requests for comment following Trump’s remarks. A familiar tactic, an unfamiliar target Public pressure on corporate America is nothing new for Trump. During his first term, he leaned on automakers to keep factories running domestically, criticized defense contractors over pricing, and pushed pharmaceutical firms to bring down drug costs. He has revived that playbook since taking office again, frequently using his platform, whether at press briefings or on social media, to shape corporate behavior without resorting to formal regulatory action. What sets this episode apart is the target. Oil and gas producers have largely benefited from Trump’s energy agenda, which has favored expanded drilling and looser permitting. Now the same administration pushing companies to pump more is also demanding they charge less, a contradiction that has started to show. Earlier in the day, Trump took aim at Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth directly, criticizing his Sunday appearance on Fox News for failing to credit the administration’s role in supporting the oil sector. In a post on Truth Social, Trump wrote that Wirth had “conveniently forgot to mention” the administration’s contribution, adding: “without the genius, foresight, strength, and stability, of the TRUMP Administration, the Oil Industry, and our Country itself, would be DEAD!” He also referenced Chevron’s return to Venezuela, writing that the company was “thrown out” of the country before coming back “far bigger and stronger than ever before, expecting to make a fortune!” Chevron’s long history in Venezuela Trump’s Venezuela comments touch on a relationship stretching back more than a hundred years. Chevron kept its operations running in the country even after former President Hugo Chavez nationalized oil assets in 2007, a period when rivals including ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips chose to withdraw entirely. That decision to stay has shaped Chevron’s position in Venezuela’s oil sector for nearly two decades, one that has alternated between sanctions, waivers, and renewed access depending on shifts in Washington’s foreign policy. Industry representatives, meanwhile, have pushed back on the idea that individual companies are to blame for rising prices. A spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute said current price pressures stem from broader market forces rather than corporate decision-making. “Today’s higher prices are driven by global supply, demand and continued uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz and other critical shipping lanes, not by any one company,” the spokesperson said. Pressure builds ahead of the midterms Trump’s frustration comes at a politically sensitive moment. Retail gasoline prices are now averaging around $4.10 a gallon nationwide, up more than 30 percent since the United States and Israel struck Iran earlier this year. That increase has landed just months before the November midterm elections, when Republicans are fighting to hold their congressional majority. Rising costs at the pump, layered on top of broader concerns about the cost of living, could become a liability for the party heading into the vote. Trump told reporters he expects relief once tensions with Iran ease. “They better cut the retail price, the consumer price,” he said, predicting that oil prices would “drop through the floor” once the conflict winds down. Global crude prices did fall after Trump called off what he had described as a planned “massive attack” on Iran over the weekend. But retail gas prices typically lag behind shifts in crude markets, meaning drivers may not see relief as quickly as the president suggests. Record earnings tell a different story The numbers behind Trump’s frustration are hard to ignore. Last week’s earnings reports from ExxonMobil, Chevron, Valero Energy, and Marathon Petroleum all pointed to the same trend: higher crude prices and wider refining margins have translated into stronger profits since the war began in February. Valero posted its best quarterly profit since the 2022 energy crisis that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Chevron, for its part, reported its highest quarterly earnings in at least six years. That earnings strength puts oil executives in an awkward position. The same market conditions driving up costs for consumers, a tightening Strait of Hormuz, sustained conflict in the Middle East, and constrained supply, are the ones fattening company balance sheets. For an administration that has staked much of its economic messaging on lowering costs for everyday Americans, the optics of record oil profits arriving alongside a 30 percent jump in gas prices are difficult to reconcile. Whether Trump’s public criticism translates into any policy action remains unclear. His administration has not signaled plans for windfall taxes, price controls, or other formal measures against the industry. For now, the pressure remains rhetorical, a continuation of the same public-shaming strategy Trump has used against other sectors in the past. But with gas prices weighing on voters and an election on the horizon, the gap between his energy expansion policy and his profit complaints may only grow harder to paper over.

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