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AP-NORC poll, Trump’s economic approval declines, raising fresh concerns for the president

American politics will change

Public confidence in Donald Trump’s handling of the U.S. economy has weakened noticeably over the past month, as rising costs linked to the conflict with Iran weigh on households and test voter patience. A new survey by The Associated Press in partnership with NORC at the University of Chicago highlights growing unease—not only among independents, but also within the president’s own party.

The poll, conducted between April 16 and April 20, shows that only 30% of Americans approve of Trump’s economic leadership, down sharply from 38% a month earlier. Views on his handling of the Iran conflict are similarly subdued, with just 32% expressing support—unchanged from March but still reflecting a divided public.

Rising Costs Undermine Economic Promises

The drop in approval comes as many Americans feel the strain of higher living costs. Energy markets have been particularly volatile, driven in part by instability in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global oil shipments. Temporary reopenings followed by renewed disruptions have contributed to sharp fluctuations in fuel prices.

Gasoline costs surged after U.S. military action earlier this year, undercutting earlier promises by the administration to bring prices down. At the same time, tariffs and broader economic uncertainty have slowed hiring and left businesses cautious, despite optimistic messaging from the White House about long-term growth.

Only about one in four Americans now approves of Trump’s handling of the cost of living, making it one of his weakest policy areas. Inflation remains a concern, with consumer prices still rising modestly compared to a year ago.

Support Softens Even Among Republicans

While Trump continues to retain a loyal base, the survey suggests cracks are emerging. Among Republicans, approval of his economic management has dropped to 62%, down from 74% in March. Independent voters are even more skeptical, with only about 20% expressing confidence in his economic leadership.

Generational divides are also apparent. Younger Republicans appear more dissatisfied with rising costs than older party members, signaling potential challenges for maintaining broad support within the party.

Still, voters aligned with the “Make America Great Again” movement remain largely supportive of Trump overall, though even within this group, enthusiasm about his handling of everyday expenses has cooled.

Americans Grow More Pessimistic

The broader outlook on the U.S. economy has darkened. Roughly three-quarters of Americans now describe economic conditions as poor, a noticeable increase from earlier in the year. Market volatility—driven by shifting signals about the Iran conflict and global energy supply—has added to the uncertainty.

For many households, the impact is tangible. Rising costs for essentials such as fuel, healthcare, and transportation are stretching budgets, particularly for middle- and lower-income families.

Political Risks Ahead

The erosion in economic confidence could carry political consequences as Trump’s party looks ahead to upcoming congressional elections. Historically, perceptions of the economy play a central role in shaping voter behavior, and declining approval ratings may complicate efforts to maintain legislative majorities.

Despite the challenges, the administration continues to emphasize its policy agenda, including tax measures and other economic initiatives. Immigration remains a relative strength for Trump, with approval on that issue holding steadier than on the economy.

A Familiar Pattern?

Trump’s current approval levels mirror some of the lowest points experienced by Joe Biden during his presidency, particularly during periods of high inflation. In Biden’s case, ratings improved somewhat as economic pressures eased—raising the question of whether a similar rebound is possible for Trump.

For now, however, the combination of geopolitical tensions, rising costs, and mixed economic signals appears to be shaping a more cautious—and in some cases, frustrated—public mood.

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George Mensah

George Mensah is a Senior Political & Conflict Correspondent at ClicxPost, covering global politics, international conflict, and economic developments. With five years of experience in breaking news and geopolitical reporting, he delivers fast, accurate analysis on major world events.

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Trump’s Approval Rating Falls to New Low as Americans Wary of Iran War

August 18, 2026 No Comments

President Donald Trump’s approval rating is at the lowest point of his current presidency, and a vast majority of Americans fear the U.S. battle with Iran might go for months, a Reuters/Ipsos survey found. The survey indicates growing public concern over the war, increased gasoline costs and the greater economic impact of a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. # The findings also offer a political dilemma for Trump and House Republicans ahead of the November midterm elections.# Trump’s Approval Falls to 33% Only 33 percent of Americans polled said they approved of Trump’s job performance; 64 percent said they disagreed. The approval percentage was down from 35 percent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll earlier this month and was the lowest rating in Trump’s current term. It also matched his lowest approval rating during his first presidency, achieved in December 2017. The decrease comes after Trump’s return to the White House in 2025 with the backing of just under half of Americans. Since then, his electoral fortunes have waned as voters express concern about the administration’s handling of the conflict with Iran and its impact on household budgets. The newest data indicate that Trump’s political power is facing challenges not only from resistance by Democrats but also from economic concerns among the supporters who supported him.## Americans Expect Long Iran Conflict Perhaps the most evident conclusion from the poll was the broad anticipation that the war is not going to end soon. About 80% of those surveyed believe the United States will be involved in Iran for a long time to come. The sentiment cut across party lines, with 87 percent of Democrats and 71 percent of Republicans voicing the same concern. Only 16% of Americans felt the conflict was likely to conclude in a few weeks. The numbers are a tough development for Trump, who campaigned on cutting inflation and avoiding long overseas wars. When the battle started, Trump had said the combat wouldn’t endure for a long time. But Iran’s resilience and the ongoing disruption of shipping via the Strait of Hormuz has made those expectations more difficult to fulfill. The fighting has disrupted one of the world’s most critical energy corridors, generating uncertainty in oil markets and driving up fuel costs.Gas Prices Turn Into Political Issue One of the clearest ways the conflict is affecting American families is through higher gasoline prices. Trump has tried to justify the higher prices, saying Americans might have to live with higher fuel prices in exchange for keeping Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Speaking Friday at a political rally in Garden City, New York, Trump said paying a little extra at the gas pump was a good price to pay to take on what he called a dangerous Iranian dictatorship. But most Americans haven’t been sold on the argument. Just under one in five of those who answered the Reuters/Ipsos poll said they thought the war had been worth the cost. Even among Republicans, only nearly half said the war was worth it. That finding could take on added significance in the wake of voters’ assessment of the administration’s economic record. Gasoline prices are a very obvious and immediate indicator of the health of the economy for many families. Higher gasoline prices can also be transmitted to transportation, food distribution and other costs, making it harder to tame inflation.# Midterm Elections Put G.O.P. Under Pressure The poll comes at a politically sensitive time for Trump and his Republican allies. The Nov. 3 elections could see Republicans trying to hold onto their slim majority in the House of Representatives while Democrats see an opportunity to battle for control of the Senate. The war in Iran could be a big factor in those races, especially if energy prices stay high or the conflict stretches into election season. Trump’s playbook politically has always been to lean heavily on his ability to persuade supporters that his policies are making the country’s economic standing better and America’s place abroad more secure. The message could be harder to sustain in the face of a long war and rising costs of living.# Democrats Make Strides on the Economy The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll also shows a major shift in how voters view the economic credentials of the two parties. For the first time in almost 10 years, voters prefer Democrats to Republicans on which party would do a better job handling the economy. In the latest poll, 38 percent of respondents said Democrats were better able to handle the economy, versus 35 percent who said they trusted Republicans more. Democrats also gained an advantage when voters were asked which party would be better at managing the cost of living. The development could be consequential for the midterm elections, which have historically been driven by economic issues as a major factor in voter behavior. Republicans have stressed tax cuts, deregulation and energy policy, while Democrats have emphasized household costs and the affordability of necessities. The poll indicates that the Republican edge on economic management could be fraying.# Immigration a Republican Strong Point Immigration remains a Republican advantage, but a much slimmer one. About 40 percent of registered voters said Republicans had the better approach to immigration, while 38 percent said Democrats did. The two-point Republican advantage was the smallest recorded during Trump’s current term. The change is notable because Republicans enjoyed a much larger advantage immediately after Trump returned to office. In January 2025, Republicans held a 26-point lead over Democrats on the issue. Trump has made immigration enforcement a central part of his presidency. His administration has pursued a nationwide crackdown, while officials have highlighted a significant decline in illegal border crossings. However, the administration’s immigration policies have also generated controversy over detention conditions, confrontations involving law enforcement and the detention of children. Those disputes appear to have affected Republican support on an issue that has traditionally been one of the party’s strongest political assets. ## War, Inflation and Political Risk The combination of foreign policy and economic concerns creates a difficult environment for the president. Trump has repeatedly shifted between threatening further escalation against Iran and suggesting that a negotiated settlement could be close. That uncertainty has made it difficult for businesses, investors and households to determine how long the economic disruption might last. The Strait of Hormuz is particularly important because of its role in global energy transportation. Any prolonged restriction on shipping through the waterway can affect oil prices far beyond the Middle East. For the administration, the political challenge is to convince voters that the costs associated with the conflict are temporary and justified by broader national security objectives. The latest poll suggests that message has not yet gained widespread public support. ## Public Opinion Could Shape the Midterms The Reuters/Ipsos findings do not necessarily predict the outcome of November’s elections, but they identify several vulnerabilities for the Republican Party. Trump’s approval rating is weak, voters are increasingly pessimistic about the duration of the Iran war, and Democrats have begun gaining ground on the economy. At the same time, Republicans retain a narrow advantage on immigration and continue to benefit from Trump’s strong base of support. The coming months could therefore prove decisive. If the Iran conflict moves toward a durable settlement and fuel prices decline, Trump could regain some of the political ground lost during the crisis. But if fighting continues, shipping remains disrupted and gasoline prices stay high, economic frustration could become a central issue in the midterm campaign. The Reuters/Ipsos poll was conducted online among 1,166 U.S. adults nationwide. It carried a margin of error of approximately three percentage points in either direction. For Trump, the results offer a clear warning: voters are increasingly judging his presidency not only by his promises of strength abroad, but also by the cost of that approach at home.

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Donald Trump Iran talks

Trump Says No Iran Talks Are Underway as Hormuz Dispute Deepens

August 18, 2026 No Comments

U.S. President Donald Trump claimed Tuesday that there were no conversations underway or planned with Iran, contradicting more upbeat signals from members of his own government and highlighting the tremendous ambiguity surrounding efforts to end the dispute. Trump said the strategically important Strait of Hormuz was open and operational but that a U.S. Navy blockade was still in place. But Iranian authorities presented a starkly different version, saying the waterway would remain shut until Washington honored terms Tehran alleges were included in a temporary deal struck in June. The dueling claims came after a 60-day diplomatic window opened by the US-Iran pact ended Monday without a meaningful conclusion. The collapse has fueled new worries over oil supply, inflation and the potential for a renewed military escalation. Diplomacy Has Stalled, Says Trump Trump remarked in a statement on his Truth Social platform said there had been no talks with Iran and none were planned. He also said the U.S. naval embargo remains in place, while insisting the Strait of Hormuz itself is open. Mines have been taken out or blown up in the waterway, Trump added. The comments marked a substantial change in tone from the previous day. Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law and an administration envoy involved in the diplomatic push, had signaled that talks with Tehran were underway and could be more meaningful than previous meetings. The mixed signals have intensified doubts over whether Washington still believes negotiation is the best way to settle the conflict or is planning to ratchet up economic and military pressure on Tehran. Meanwhile, Iranian officials have continued to claim they are eager to discuss, but only on terms they say defend the country’s sovereignty and economic interests. Iran Says Hormuz To Stay Closed The issue that remains unresolved in the negotiations is the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow strait linking the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman is one of the world’s most vital energy corridors. Before the fighting, over 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas went through the channel. In the June agreement, Iran committed to arrange for the safe passage of commercial vessels for 60 days. The United States has promised to begin lifting its naval blockade of Iranian ports and to finish that process within 30 days. The accord also called for negotiations for a larger settlement on Iran’s nuclear program, sanctions and economic rehabilitation. But the two parties had quite different conceptions of what should happen beyond the first 60-day period. Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said Tuesday that Tehran will continue to keep the waterway closed until Washington met demands Iran believes were part of the accord. Tehran wants the US to lift its blockade, remove oil restrictions, release Iranian assets frozen abroad and stop American military threats and operations. The dispute has turned what was meant to be a de-escalation mechanism into one of the main causes of confrontation. The initial memorandum foresaw the return of commercial traffic gradually and Iranian efforts to eliminate technical and military barriers, including mines. Shipping still well below normal The strait was open but traffic was well below average, Trump said. Early marine data showed just a handful of ships transiting the channel Monday, well below activity levels before the war. The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations group also stated Tuesday that an outbound vessel transiting through the strait had been hit by an unidentified projectile. The incident apparently caused damage in the engine room and a crew injury, and the surviving crew were being assisted by Omani authorities. The event underscores the ongoing risks to commercial operators even when the waterway is nominally passable. For shipping corporations the question is not just whether a ship can physically enter the channel. Insurance expenses, threat of attack, uncertainty over mine clearance and the prospect of detention or intervention can all play a part in whether commercial operators are willing to make the route. That uncertainty has led to the volatility of global energy markets.# Oil prices rise, markets fear a long crisis The end of diplomacy was quickly reflected in the financial markets. Brent crude, the international benchmark, had jumped during the battle to a high of around $126 a barrel, about three-quarters more than before the war. Prices then dropped on prospects of a truce and greater shipping activity but continued diplomatic tensions pushed Brent higher again. It closed Tuesday at just above $91 a barrel. The fallout goes far beyond energy. Higher oil prices raise the cost of transportation and manufacturing throughout the global economy and add to inflationary pressure. Then, governments and central banks have to weigh whether greater energy prices are transitory or enduring when choosing interest rates. Equity and government bond markets have also been buffeted by uncertainty, as the cost of borrowing has jumped dramatically in key nations. U.S. 30-year Treasury yields hit their highest level in nearly two decades as fears grew over the longer term economic impact of the conflict, Reuters reported. American Consumers Are Feeling the Pinch The crisis has also become a growing domestic political concern for Trump. In the U.S., AAA said, gasoline prices had surged beyond $4 a gallon, compared to less than $3 before the war. The rise comes at a politically sensitive time, with legislative elections set for November. For the government, the challenge is to sustain the pressure on Iran, but avoid a lasting energy shock. A prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz might force fuel prices even higher, with possible effects on household budgets, transportation expenses and inflation expectations. Trump has always characterized his policy as one of maximum pressure on Tehran and seeking a negotiated conclusion. With the 60-day framework collapsing, that strategy is facing further criticism.“We are not giving up diplomacy,” Tehran says But despite increasingly aggressive rhetoric, Iranian leaders have not shut the door entirely on diplomacy. Tehran still was willing to talk to Washington but would not confuse talks with surrender, Mohammad Mokhber, an adviser to Iran’s supreme leader, said Tuesday. His remarks were reflective of the dilemma facing Iranian leaders. The administration wants to show it can endure the pressure of the U.S. military and economy, but it also wants relief from sanctions and access to frozen financial assets. Long-term economic disruption could also raise domestic misery and political pressure on the government. Iranian leaders have privately warned that worsening economic conditions could trigger new social upheaval and undermine popular confidence in the Islamic Republic even more. Iran’s government thus confronts conflicting pressures: to be hardline toward Washington but to avoid a confrontation that could further damage Iran’s economy.# A Delicate Pact Falls Apart The June memorandum was supposed to give the United States and Iran 60 days to reach a permanent settlement. The pact calls for both parties to suspend military operations and work for a larger agreement on Iran’s nuclear programs, sanctions and economic reconstruction. The treaty also directly dealt with the Strait of Hormuz and the return of commercial shipping was one of the first practical tests of the truce. ([Military Times][2]) The deal, however, left many of the most contentious issues unsolved. They included the future of Iran’s nuclear program, the scope of sanctions relief, the removal or prolonged presence of U.S. forces, the status of the naval blockade and who would ultimately manage maritime commerce through Hormuz. Failure to reach resolution within the 60-day term has resulted in the breakdown of those unresolved issues.## The Risk of Further Escalation The need for international governments and oil markets is to keep the disagreement over Hormuz from becoming another round of military conflict, for now. The waterway is too vital to the world economy for the damage caused by protracted disruption to be seen as just a regional concern. Longer-term cuts in oil and gas supplies could push up prices globally and make it harder to tame inflation. Yet Washington and Tehran have indicated that neither side looks eager to walk away from negotiations altogether. Trump’s assertion that there are no discussions scheduled, but Iranian officials continue to say they are willing to negotiate, indicates the diplomatic avenue may be blocked but not forever shut. The question now is whether both parties can find sufficient common ground to bring back commercial ships and reopen negotiations before military pressure and economic costs push the crisis into a more hazardous phase. For now, the Strait of Hormuz is the fulcrum of that uncertainty — and its fate might determine whether the situation veers toward renewed negotiation or another round of escalation.

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Grocery Prices Still Rising Two Years After Trump’s Bedminster Inflation Pledge, Testing Republicans Ahead of Midterms

August 15, 2026 No Comments

Two years after Donald Trump staged a New Jersey press conference surrounded by grocery staples to attack inflation under Democrats, food prices are still climbing despite his promise to bring them down. The gap between that pledge and the current reality now threatens to become a liability for Republicans heading into November’s midterm elections. Trump stood among tables piled with fruit, beef, cereal, milk, and other household staples at his Bedminster golf club on August 15, 2024, blaming the Biden administration for sharp increases in grocery costs. The event, which included charts displaying rising prices, targeted Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and centered on Trump’s core campaign promise: that he alone could tame inflation and lower the cost of living for American families. Two years later, higher gasoline and grocery prices are squeezing household budgets and pushing the cost of living to the top of voters’ concerns. For the first time in nearly a decade, Reuters/Ipsos polling shows voters giving Democrats a slight edge over Republicans on economic stewardship. A voter’s frustration at the checkout line Sheila Carney, a 68-year-old Trump voter, punctuated her frustration with an expletive as she loaded $70 worth of groceries into her car outside a supermarket near Trump’s Bedminster club. The purchase was modest: some meat, detergent, and a 12-pack of iced tea. For Carney, the receipt stood as proof that affordability concerns Trump has sometimes dismissed as a Democratic “hoax” remain a daily burden for many Americans. “This is real. He can say it’s not, but it is,” said Carney, a hospital administration assistant who has delayed retirement while helping pay off her son’s student loans. “He hasn’t brought anything down.” A Reuters analysis of 26 grocery categories tracked by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the same categories featured in Trump’s Bedminster display, found prices have risen 3.4% during the first 19 months of his second term. That pace is less than a quarter of what was recorded at the same point in Joe Biden’s term, but it still falls short of Trump’s pledge to lower prices outright, as surges in coffee, beef, and apples have outweighed declines in items like eggs and butter. A White House official pointed to data released Wednesday showing that U.S. consumer prices barely increased in July from the month before, citing it as evidence that inflation is under control. “The July CPI report is further proof that President Trump’s long-term agenda is delivering: prescription drug and auto insurance costs continue to fall, real wages are rising, and beef prices have cooled while other household essentials like eggs, poultry, and dairy remain low,” the official said. Republican enthusiasm wavers Carney, a registered Republican, said high grocery and gasoline prices tied to the Iran war were among the reasons she has grown disillusioned enough to consider skipping the midterms entirely, a sentiment that echoes recent polling showing Republicans less enthusiastic about voting than Democrats this cycle. Carney was one of 17 Republicans and independents Reuters interviewed in New Jersey’s 7th Congressional District, a battleground that includes Bedminster and where swing voters and turnout could decide the outcome. The race pits Republican incumbent Tom Kean against Democrat Rebecca Bennett, who has worked to capitalize on voter frustration over the cost of living. More than half of those interviewed said they were either undecided or leaning toward Bennett. While grocery prices weighed heavily on many voters, complaints about Kean more often centered on his months-long disappearance from public view earlier this year, which he later attributed to depression. Their views mirror those of other Trump supporters Reuters has interviewed in recent months, voters who continue to stand by the president but say financial pressures have dampened their enthusiasm for showing up in November. That ambivalence presents another challenge for Republicans and raises the stakes for the party’s get-out-the-vote efforts. Francesco Trebbi, a public policy professor at the University of California, Berkeley, recently co-authored research finding that Trump drew stronger support in the 2024 election in counties where inflation outpaced income growth, eroding household purchasing power. With real wages rising only marginally and lagging broader economic growth, Trebbi said that pattern is likely to reverse in November. “I expect the same anti-incumbent shift to happen in 2026, this time possibly weakening Republicans,” he said, describing grocery shopping as “psychologically salient” for voters. “Each time one does it, it is the equivalent of a campaign ad against the incumbent.” Not all Republicans are convinced Presidents have limited direct influence over inflation, which is driven by a range of factors and more directly addressed by the Federal Reserve. Many Republicans appear willing to give Trump the benefit of the doubt, even as his tariffs and the Iran war have contributed to rising prices. Bonnie Chandler, 64, plans to vote for Kean, saying she believes some companies are keeping prices elevated deliberately to make Trump look bad. She also said the growing influence of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing left her unwilling to consider its candidates. “I’m going to vote Republican. I’m not a woke person. I’m not a communist. I’m not a socialist,” she said. Lauren DeGirolamo, a 34-year-old Trump voter, said issues like education and border security matter more to her than grocery prices, which she believes have stabilized under Trump after steep increases during the Biden administration. “I feel grocery prices are pretty much at level with where they were during Biden. I know some of the key things that I look for, eggs, have gone down,” she said, adding that she plans to vote for Republican candidates in November. According to BLS data, egg prices have fallen nearly 40% under Trump, reflecting a market correction after avian flu-driven shortages triggered a surge that began during Biden’s presidency. Eggs rank among six of the 26 tracked categories showing declines since 2025, alongside butter, bacon, and cooking fats and oils. Most of the items Trump displayed at Bedminster, however, are now more expensive, some substantially so. Uncooked beef has jumped 19.2%, fresh fish and seafood 8.6%, apples 14%, and coffee nearly 23%. A political liability with real stakes A Reuters/Ipsos poll that concluded earlier this month found Trump’s net approval rating on his handling of the cost of living at negative 47%, down sharply from negative 6% at the start of his term. The issue ranks as his weakest by a wide margin, trailing his ratings on the broader economy at negative 35% and immigration at negative 16%. Bennett told Reuters that if elected, she would work to undo Trump’s tariffs, rein in the Iran war, and restore food stamp benefits to help families struggling to afford groceries. The issue is personal for her, she said. “This is not an abstract concept to me,” said Bennett, a military veteran and married mother of two daughters. “For example, beef is very expensive, so we don’t buy beef anymore.” Whether Kean, whose campaign did not respond to requests for comment, can hold his seat may depend on voters like Margaret Derkach, an 84-year-old who typically votes Republican but is now considering switching her vote if economic conditions don’t improve. “The cost of living, as far as homes, apartments and food, the necessities, they have gone up. It’s shocking, shocking,” Derkach said after shopping at discount grocer Aldi. Though she said Trump “inherited a mess” from Biden, Derkach added that she remains undecided. “I have to see,” she said.

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Iran Tells U.S. to Accept “Defeat” as Trump Warns of Prolonged High Gas Prices Amid Hormuz Standoff

August 15, 2026 No Comments

Iran called on the United States to accept defeat on Saturday, while President Donald Trump described Tehran as “very evil” and told Americans to brace for continued high fuel prices as the war between the two countries drags on. Progress toward peace talks remained stalled, and oil tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz stayed halted, with no indication either side is moving toward ending the conflict that the U.S. and Israel launched on February 28. Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi delivered the sharpest rhetoric of the day in a post on X. “This strait will be opened and closed only under Iran’s command, and so long as you do not accept the reality of defeat and stop indulging in fantasies, Iran will continue to enforce the blockade,” Gharibabadi wrote. His comments came as Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran had not decided whether to resume talks with Washington. In an interview published Saturday by Iranian news outlet Shahrara News, Araqchi said the U.S. must meet Iran’s conditions on the strait before shipping can resume through the waterway, which handled roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil before the war began. Trump defends the cost of the conflict Trump addressed the economic toll of the war directly at a political rally in Garden City, New York, on Friday, urging Americans to accept “a tiny little bit more for your gasoline” in exchange for preventing what he called “a very evil country” from acquiring a nuclear weapon, one of the stated justifications he has given for the war. He also floated a dramatic escalation of U.S. ambitions in the region. “After we finish defeating Iran… pretty soon I’ll be declaring the Hormuz Strait a territory of the United States,” Trump said. Throughout the conflict, Trump has shifted between threatening further escalation and claiming a peace deal is close at hand, a pattern that has continued into this latest round of statements. The financial impact of that uncertainty is already visible at the pump. The average U.S. price of a gallon of gasoline stood at about $4.08 on Friday, up 29% from a year earlier, according to the American Automobile Association. Trump campaigned for reelection on a promise to lower energy costs, and Democrats are now working to turn the war’s economic fallout into a campaign issue ahead of November’s congressional elections. Oil markets reflected the tension as well. Crude oil futures rose $1 a barrel on Friday, with benchmark Brent futures on track for a weekly gain of 6.0% and West Texas Intermediate up 5.4% for the week. Iran points to its own economic strain Tehran has matched Washington’s rhetoric in recent days as efforts to reach a lasting resolution appear stuck. Gharibabadi dismissed the idea that U.S. military posturing could resolve the standoff. “The Strait of Hormuz cannot be seized by a tweet or an aircraft carrier, by issuing an order or by delivering an election speech,” he said. Despite that defiance, Iran is showing signs of economic strain from the conflict. President Masoud Pezeshkian, speaking on state television, blamed rising inflation in Iran on a U.S. blockade of Iranian ports and continued sanctions on the country’s oil exports. Iran’s use of the word “blockade” mirrors the term Washington has applied to its own threats against Iranian vessels attempting to leave their ports, with both sides now describing the other’s actions in nearly identical language. Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent both pledged to increase financial pressure on Iran going forward. Bessent told Newsmax’s “Rob Schmitt Tonight” program on Thursday that additional measures targeting Iran would be announced next week. Trump, for his part, framed the broader U.S. campaign as a benefit to the international community. “What we’re doing is a great service for the world, not only for ourselves… and we’re really doing a great job,” he said. Shipping traffic remains near a standstill The practical effect of the standoff shows up most clearly in shipping data. Only two vessels passed through the Strait of Hormuz on Friday, and neither carried visible crude oil shipments, according to analysis from ship-tracking firm Kpler. Some vessels may still be crossing the strait undetected with their transponders switched off, but even accounting for that possibility, current traffic falls far short of the more than 130 ships that used to cross the strait daily before the war began. Vessels that attempt to navigate the strait without Iranian permission face the risk of missile or drone strikes. That risk has already materialized multiple times in the past two days. The UAE accused Iran of attacking a third vessel operated by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company while it was transiting the strait on Friday, the Emirati state news agency WAM reported. The accusation followed two earlier incidents involving ADNOC vessels in the strait that the UAE blamed on Iran Thursday evening. Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Centre reported that a bulk carrier was struck in the hull by an unknown projectile in the strait on Friday. It remains unclear whether that report refers to the same incident involving the ADNOC vessel or a separate attack entirely. A collapsed ceasefire and a widening regional conflict A tentative deal reached in June to end the war has effectively fallen apart. Araqchi rejected the framing that Iran and the U.S. ever had a formal ceasefire to extend. “We did not have a ceasefire in the first place that we would now want to extend,” he said. “We had ‘the end of the war,’ and now there is a new situation.” The conflict’s reach is also extending beyond Iran and the strait itself. Iran-backed Houthi forces in Yemen renewed fears of a broader regional war after Yemen’s internationally recognized government said the group fired six ballistic missiles at the Red Sea port of Mocha on Friday, killing four civilians. The strike adds another front to a conflict that began as a bilateral war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran but has increasingly drawn in Iran-aligned armed groups operating elsewhere in the region. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz still largely frozen, oil prices climbing, and both Washington and Tehran doubling down on hardline public statements, there is little indication that either side is prepared to de-escalate in the near term. The economic pressure mounting on both countries, reflected in U.S. gas prices and Iranian inflation alike, has yet to translate into renewed diplomatic movement, leaving the war’s trajectory as uncertain as it has been since fighting began in February.

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UAE Says Iran Attacked ADNOC Vessel in Strait of Hormuz, Third Incident in Under a Week

August 15, 2026 No Comments

The United Arab Emirates said Saturday that Iran attacked a vessel belonging to the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company while it was transiting the Strait of Hormuz a day earlier, according to the Emirati state news agency WAM. The strike marks the third such incident involving ADNOC vessels in less than a week, deepening a pattern of maritime attacks that has rattled shipping through one of the world’s most critical oil corridors. ADNOC said no injuries were reported in connection with the attack and that the situation was under control, WAM reported. The company has not released further details about the extent of damage to the vessel or the nature of the attack itself. The UAE foreign ministry responded by calling on Tehran to halt what it described as unprovoked attacks, end hostilities, and fully reopen the waterway. Iran had not issued any immediate comment on the accusation as of Saturday. Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to the UAE president, addressed the incident directly in a post on X. “We will safeguard our rights to freedom of navigation… while continuing the path of dialogue and prioritising diplomatic options,” Gargash wrote, signaling that Abu Dhabi intends to respond to the pattern of attacks without abandoning efforts toward a diplomatic resolution. A pattern of repeated strikes Saturday’s reported attack follows two earlier incidents in the same week, both of which the UAE also attributed to Iran. Those prior strikes, like Saturday’s, targeted ADNOC vessels transiting the strait, according to Reuters reporting on the earlier attacks. The repetition has hardened the UAE’s public stance, with officials framing the incidents as a sustained campaign rather than isolated events. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have previously issued threats against vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz, warning of action against ships linked to Tehran’s adversaries or those that fail to comply with Iranian directives. Those past warnings provide context for the UAE’s accusations, though Iran has not directly claimed responsibility for the recent string of attacks on ADNOC vessels. Separately, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency said it had received a report of a bulk carrier being struck by an unknown projectile in the strait on Friday. It remains unclear whether that incident involved the same ADNOC vessel referenced in Saturday’s WAM report or a separate ship altogether. The UKMTO did not immediately specify the carrier’s identity or flag. Why the strait matters The Strait of Hormuz sits between Oman and Iran and functions as one of the busiest chokepoints for global energy trade. Before the current conflict, roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the narrow waterway on its way to markets in Asia, Europe, and beyond. Its geography, a narrow channel bordered by Iranian territory on one side, gives Tehran significant leverage over global shipping traffic whenever tensions in the region escalate. That leverage has become increasingly relevant since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran broke out on February 28. Shipping through the strait has faced repeated disruptions since the conflict began, pushing freight rates higher and forcing shipping companies to reassess security protocols for vessels transiting the area. Insurance costs for tankers and cargo ships passing through the strait have climbed as underwriters price in the elevated risk of attack. ADNOC, Abu Dhabi’s state oil company, ranks among the largest energy producers in the world. The company exports crude oil, natural gas, and refined petroleum products to markets globally, making it a central player in the UAE’s economy and a frequent target of scrutiny whenever regional tensions threaten shipping lanes. The repeated targeting of ADNOC vessels specifically, rather than a broader mix of international shipping, has drawn attention to whether Iran is deliberately singling out Emirati state assets as part of the broader conflict. Diplomatic and security implications The UAE’s response so far has combined public condemnation with an emphasis on continued dialogue. Gargash’s statement reflects that dual approach, asserting the UAE’s right to defend its vessels and interests while explicitly stating a preference for diplomatic channels over escalation. Whether that balance holds will likely depend on whether the attacks continue. Regional shipping operators are watching the situation closely, given the strait’s outsized role in global energy supply chains. Any sustained disruption to traffic through Hormuz carries the potential to affect oil and gas prices well beyond the Gulf region, a dynamic that has played out repeatedly since the war between the U.S., Israel, and Iran began earlier this year. Iran’s silence on the specific accusation from ADNOC and the UAE leaves open questions about how Tehran will respond to the latest round of claims. Past incidents in the strait have sometimes drawn direct denials from Iranian officials and, at other times, no response at all, making it difficult to predict whether a formal reply will follow this latest incident. For now, ADNOC has indicated the situation involving Saturday’s vessel is under control, suggesting no immediate operational disruption to the company’s shipping activities. But the accumulation of three attacks in under a week signals that maritime security in the strait remains volatile, with each new incident adding pressure on the UAE to determine how far it is willing to go to protect its fleet without triggering further escalation. The UK Maritime Trade Operations agency’s separate report of a bulk carrier strike on Friday adds another layer of uncertainty to the broader picture, raising the possibility that Iran’s actions, or those of other actors operating in the strait, extend beyond ADNOC-specific targets to a wider range of commercial shipping traffic. As the conflict between the U.S., Israel, and Iran continues, the Strait of Hormuz is likely to remain a flashpoint, with any additional attacks carrying the potential to further disrupt one of the world’s most important energy trade routes and add new pressure on international efforts to de-escalate the broader regional conflict.

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Mecca Joint Defence Agreement

Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan Detail Military Pact Amid Iran Tensions

August 13, 2026 No Comments

Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan will establish joint political and military coordination bodies, conduct combined military exercises and expand defense industry cooperation under a pact signed between the three nations last week, Turkey’s defense ministry said Thursday. The announcement provides the first detailed roadmap for how the three Sunni Muslim countries, all close U.S. allies, intend to implement the agreement they signed on August 7 amid rising alarm over a regional conflict that has sent Iranian missile fire toward Gulf oil exporters. The pact represents one of the most significant new security arrangements to emerge from the wider instability that has gripped the Middle East since fighting broke out between the United States, Israel and Iran earlier this year. Pact modeled on NATO’s collective defense clause The three nations signed what they called the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement on August 7, stipulating that an armed attack against any one member would be treated as an attack against all three. The provision closely mirrors Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty, the collective defense clause that obligates alliance members to respond jointly to an attack on any member state. The comparison to NATO’s Article 5 has drawn particular attention given the makeup of the three signatories. Pakistan is a declared nuclear power, while Saudi Arabia remains the world’s largest oil exporter and Turkey fields the second-largest standing army in NATO. A mutual defense commitment binding these three militaries together marks a notable departure from the more informal security cooperation that has traditionally characterized relations among Sunni Muslim-majority states in the region. At a weekly briefing in Ankara, Turkey’s defense ministry said the pact’s central purpose was to place defense and military ties among the three countries on a “more institutional and sustainable” footing going forward, rather than relying on the ad hoc bilateral arrangements that have governed cooperation in the past. New coordination bodies planned According to the ministry, the agreement calls for the creation of strategic political and military mechanisms involving each country’s defense ministers, foreign ministers, and chiefs of general staff or armed forces commanders. Coordination among the three nations will take place “at the highest level,” the ministry said, suggesting the pact is designed to function as a standing forum for regular consultation rather than a one-time declaration of solidarity. The ministry did not specify how frequently these bodies would meet or where they would be headquartered, but described the arrangement as intended to give the three countries a durable structure for managing shared security concerns as the regional situation evolves. Joint exercises to span multiple domains The ministry also outlined plans for joint military exercises spanning land, naval and air forces, along with cooperation on air defense systems and unmanned military technology. The scope of the planned exercises suggests the three militaries intend to build interoperability across a broad range of combat domains rather than limiting cooperation to a single branch of their armed forces. Naval cooperation in particular carries added significance given Saudi Arabia’s exposure to Gulf shipping routes and the broader disruption to regional maritime traffic caused by the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Coordinated air defense planning also reflects the immediate concern driving the pact: the threat of missile and drone strikes that has already reached Gulf oil-exporting states during the current fighting. Defense industry cooperation to expand Beyond joint exercises, the three countries plan to deepen cooperation across their defense industries. The ministry said the goal extends beyond simply supplying military products and systems to one another. “The aim is to provide not only product and system supply, but also joint development and production, technology cooperation, and sustainable maintenance and logistics support,” the ministry said. It added that unmanned and autonomous systems, electronic warfare capabilities and artificial intelligence would be treated as priority areas for cooperation. The emphasis on joint development rather than one-way arms sales points to an ambition among the three countries to build shared defense manufacturing capacity rather than simply relying on purchases from outside powers. Turkey has invested heavily in recent years in domestic drone and defense technology production, an industry that could form the backbone of the pact’s technology-sharing ambitions with Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Pact open to expansion, Turkey says Turkey, which maintains NATO’s second-largest army, said the agreement with nuclear-armed Pakistan and top global oil exporter Saudi Arabia remains open to additional members, naming Egypt as a potential future candidate. Turkish officials stressed the pact is not intended to replace any of the countries’ existing alliances or defense commitments, an apparent effort to reassure Washington and other Western partners that the arrangement is additive rather than a realignment away from established security relationships. The openness to expansion, particularly the mention of Egypt, signals that the three founding members may see the pact as the foundation for a broader Sunni Muslim security bloc rather than a fixed trilateral arrangement. Egypt, like Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, maintains close security ties with the United States while also navigating its own relationship with Iran and other regional powers. Turkey also joins Red Sea shipping talks Separately, the defense ministry said Turkey is participating in meetings in Jeddah aimed at building an international coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea from attacks linked to Yemen’s Houthi movement. The talks come as regional powers work to shore up maritime security across multiple Middle East shipping corridors amid the broader escalation involving Iran. The Jeddah talks run parallel to the trilateral defense pact and reflect a wider pattern of regional states moving to coordinate security responses as instability spreads across multiple fronts, from the Gulf to the Red Sea. Saudi Arabia, which has led the push for an international coalition to protect Red Sea shipping, has positioned itself at the center of both initiatives, underscoring the kingdom’s efforts to shape the region’s evolving security architecture as the fallout from the Iran conflict continues to spread.

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Strait of Hormuz control

Iran Claims Control of Strait of Hormuz, Contradicting Trump’s Assertion

August 13, 2026 No Comments

The Strait of Hormuz remains “under Iran’s control and management,” the newly appointed head of Iran’s Basij paramilitary unit said Thursday, directly contradicting a statement a day earlier from U.S. President Donald Trump that the United States had “total control” of the strategic waterway. The dueling claims highlight how contested the narrow shipping channel remains, months after fighting first broke out between the United States, Israel and Iran, and underscore how far apart Washington and Tehran remain on the question of who actually holds sway over one of the world’s most vital energy corridors. Hossein Taeb said the United States had attempted to undermine what he called the Islamic Republic’s regional popularity by launching another war in the Strait of Hormuz, but had been defeated again despite claiming Iran possessed neither an air force nor a navy. “Today you see that the Strait of Hormuz is under the management and control of the Islamic Republic,” Taeb said, according to the semi-official Fars news agency. He added that Iran continues to operate in the strait with complete security, framing the situation as a demonstration of Tehran’s resilience against a much larger military power. Taeb’s comments come as he settles into his new post atop the Basij, the volunteer paramilitary force affiliated with Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that has played a central role in both domestic security operations and, more recently, the country’s posture toward Gulf shipping lanes. A vital corridor for global energy The Strait of Hormuz sits between Iran and Oman, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and, beyond that, the open waters of the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, the shipping channel is only a few dozen miles wide, making it one of the most consequential chokepoints in global trade. Tankers carrying crude oil, refined products and liquefied natural gas from Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar and Iran itself have historically relied on the strait as the only sea route out of the Gulf. That dependence is why any disruption to traffic through the strait tends to ripple quickly through global energy markets, and why control of the waterway has become such a central point of dispute in the current conflict. War disrupted global oil shipping route The conflict began on February 28 with joint U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran. In response, Tehran effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a waterway through which roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas had previously moved before the fighting started. The closure marked one of the most significant disruptions to global energy shipping in years, forcing producers and buyers across the Gulf to reroute or halt shipments through the corridor. The United States then imposed a naval blockade on Iranian shipping and ports, while stating it would protect freedom of navigation for vessels traveling to and from ports outside Iran, positioning its own naval presence as a counterweight to Tehran’s closure of the strait. The competing military postures, Iran restricting the waterway while the U.S. Navy sought to guarantee passage for non-Iranian shipping, have effectively turned the strait into a contested zone where both sides claim authority but neither fully controls the flow of traffic. Ceasefire collapsed after weeks In June, the United States and Iran reached an interim agreement establishing a permanent ceasefire and calling for a swift return to freedom of navigation throughout the Gulf. The deal was seen at the time as a potential turning point that could restore normal shipping through the strait and ease pressure on global oil markets. That agreement broke down several weeks later after Iran resumed limited attacks on vessels it said were operating in violation of the deal’s terms. Tehran maintained that the vessels it targeted were sailing in ways inconsistent with the arrangements laid out in the interim agreement, though it did not elaborate further on the specific violations it alleged. The United States responded by restarting strikes on Iran’s southern provinces, saying the strikes were intended to degrade Tehran’s capacity to target vessels in the Gulf. The renewed fighting effectively erased the brief window of de-escalation the June agreement had created, returning the conflict to the state of open hostility that has now stretched on for months. Iran ties reopening to U.S. compliance Separately on Thursday, senior military political official Rasoul Sanaei-Rad said Iran would not reopen the strait until the other side fulfilled its obligations under the interim agreement. He said the waterway’s reopening was not something the United States could achieve on its own, according to Fars news, a position that suggests Tehran views the strait’s status as leverage in any future negotiations rather than a matter it is prepared to concede unilaterally. Sanaei-Rad also warned that Iran would respond with greater force in any future conflict. “In a possible future war, we will stand more firmly and more offensively,” he said, a comment that signals Tehran does not view the current standoff as settled and is preparing for the possibility of renewed large-scale fighting. Competing narratives, unresolved conflict The competing claims from Washington and Tehran over control of the strait underscore the fragility of the ceasefire and the unresolved tensions that continue to threaten one of the world’s most critical shipping corridors. Trump’s assertion of “total control” and Taeb’s counterclaim that the strait remains under Iranian management reflect not just a dispute over facts on the water, but a broader struggle over which side can credibly claim the upper hand in a conflict that has already disrupted global energy flows once and could do so again. With the interim agreement in tatters and both sides trading strikes in recent weeks, the path back to a durable ceasefire remains unclear. Iran’s insistence that it will not reopen the strait until the United States meets its own commitments suggests any resolution will require further negotiation rather than a unilateral declaration from either side. In the meantime, tankers, insurers and energy markets are left navigating a waterway whose control is claimed by both combatants but guaranteed by neither.

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Karoline Leavitt resignation

Karoline Leavitt to Step Down as White House Press Secretary at Month’s End

August 13, 2026 No Comments

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt will leave her position at the end of August, President Donald Trump announced Wednesday, removing one of his most trusted advisers from the West Wing just months before November’s midterm elections. Leavitt will transition into a role as an outside communications adviser and party operative, working to shape the future direction of Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement, according to statements from both Leavitt and Trump. In a social media post, Leavitt, 28, said she plans to spend more time with her young children. She gave birth to her second child, a daughter, in May and recently returned from maternity leave. Trump praised Leavitt in a social media post, calling her “one of the best White House Press Secretaries in the History of the Office.” He credited her with “fighting for Justice, Liberty, and Freedom” since 2018, including during his 2024 reelection campaign. Leavitt described her tenure at the White House as “the honor and adventure of a lifetime.” Youngest press secretary in history Leavitt joined Trump’s 2024 campaign and served as transition spokeswoman before he named her White House press secretary, making her the youngest person to hold the position. Harrison Fields, Trump’s former principal deputy press secretary, said Leavitt understood how to communicate with both the president and the public. “Few could or will ever compare to Karoline,” Fields said. “She’s someone who not only spoke Trump fluently, she knew how to feed the media beast in a cunning, audacious, and successful way that, most importantly, played to her audience: the president.” Over her year and a half in the role, Leavitt worked alongside White House communications director Steven Cheung to reshape the administration’s approach to the press corps, a shift that drew praise from some Trump allies and criticism from press freedom advocates. A new approach to media access Under Leavitt, the Trump administration began selecting which journalists receive access to the president, moving away from the longstanding system managed by the independent White House Correspondents Association. That system traditionally relied on a rotating pool of journalists chosen by the industry group to ensure consistent media access and allow outlets to relay the president’s activities to reporters unable to attend smaller events. As part of the shift, the press office created a new “new media” seat in the briefing room, giving podcasts, newsletters and emerging digital outlets a more prominent role in covering the presidency. Some press advocates welcomed the change as an acknowledgment of a shifting media landscape. Others said it gave the administration a tool to reward outlets it viewed as sympathetic to its coverage. Departure follows report on decoy plane Leavitt’s exit comes as the administration faces scrutiny following a Washington Post report this week that Trump used a plane carrying Cabinet officials, staff and journalists as a decoy while departing a NATO summit in Turkey in July. According to the report, the Secret Service secretly moved Trump from one aircraft to another inside the back of a catering truck as he faced a potential assassination threat from Iran. Journalists and staff aboard the original plane were unaware of the president’s actual movements at the time, a significant break from past protocol. Leavitt’s departure leaves Trump without a key spokesperson heading into a critical midterm election cycle, as Republicans work to defend their congressional majorities in November.

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sex trafficking prosecutions

Sex-Trafficking Prosecutions Fall as Trump Administration Diverts Resources to Immigration Enforcement

August 13, 2026 No Comments

Federal sex-trafficking prosecutions have stalled over the past six months despite the Trump administration’s repeated claims that fighting the crime remains a top priority, according to Reuters interviews with 25 former prosecutors, current agents and victims’ advocates, along with a review of federal court records. Staffing shortages, funding cuts, immigration enforcement demands and growing distrust of the government among victims have combined to slow investigations and reduce prosecutions, the review found. “You can’t say something is a priority and then not provide the resources to make that happen,” said Jacqueline Kelley, a former federal prosecutor in New York who led the prosecution of rapper and actor Sean “Diddy” Combs, who was convicted on two counts of transportation for prostitution. Federal sex-trafficking charges have dropped to their slowest pace since 2010. The Justice Department charged 73 people through June, about 22% fewer than the average number charged during the first half of the past three years, according to court records. Related crimes have seen similar declines. The department charged 1,230 people with child pornography violations through June, 3% below the three-year average for the same period. It charged 318 people under the Mann Act, which targets interstate prostitution, an 18% drop from average. The declines reflect a broader shift in federal law enforcement priorities under President Donald Trump, who has cut agency budgets and directed resources toward deportations. Charges for crimes unrelated to immigration, ranging from tax evasion to drug trafficking, fell 7% through June to about 22,000, court records show. Attorney general confirmation follows Epstein controversy The findings arrive shortly after the Senate confirmed Trump nominee Todd Blanche as Attorney General in a 50-49 vote, with two Republicans breaking from the party. Blanche’s confirmation faced bipartisan criticism over his handling of documents tied to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein and his approval of a transfer to a minimum-security prison for Epstein’s accomplice, Ghislaine Maxwell, shortly after personally interviewing her. Blanche told Congress that combating human trafficking “remains a Department priority given the gravity of the harm it causes.” The administration also named a new national coordinator for child exploitation and human trafficking, career prosecutor Alessandra Serano. Serano told Reuters the department remains committed to fighting sex trafficking. She attributed the decline in new prosecutions to prosecutors and investigators spending time on a backlog of ongoing cases rather than opening new ones. Department of Homeland Security spokeswoman Katherine Currie declined to comment on the Reuters review but said her agency remains committed to both immigration and sex-crimes enforcement. Veteran prosecutors and agents leave their posts Sex-trafficking cases rank among the most difficult to investigate and prosecute, requiring investigators to untangle patterns of psychological abuse, trace illicit finances and build trust with traumatized victims. Dozens of experienced sex-trafficking prosecutors have left the Justice Department in recent months, according to seven former prosecutors who worked such cases. For part of last year, the majority of Homeland Security Investigations agents were assigned to immigration duties rather than trafficking cases, according to current agents and prior Reuters reporting. In some U.S. attorney’s offices, the shortage of prosecutors has become so severe that agents working sex-trafficking cases cannot find anyone to pursue them, agents and former prosecutors said. Serano said staff turnover is common in these roles because the work “takes a toll on people more than other types of cases.” Former prosecutors who spoke with Reuters said the recent departures exceeded typical attrition. Serano said the department is actively hiring to fill the vacancies. To assess the department’s enforcement record, Reuters obtained dockets for every publicly filed federal criminal case over the past two decades from Westlaw, a Thomson Reuters legal research service, and used artificial intelligence to help classify some charges. A review of a random sample found the classifications were 98% accurate. The Justice Department said its internal data showed a smaller decline but declined to explain its methodology or provide case numbers, and Reuters could not replicate the department’s findings using a public version of its database. Court records reviewed by Reuters show sex-trafficking prosecutions have declined gradually over the past decade, a trend that sources partly attributed to the department’s shift toward more time-consuming cases against higher-profile offenders. But under Trump, prosecutors say that work has been further hampered by the focus on immigration enforcement, the loss of experienced staff and cuts to victim-support grants. One federal agent, speaking on condition of anonymity, said sex trafficking has not been a department priority since Trump took office and launched his mass-deportation campaign. Seven former prosecutors and three agents said that with fewer agents assigned to trafficking cases, many investigations have effectively frozen and new cases are rarely opened. “The administration is throwing sand in the gears in 10,000 different ways,” said Martina Vandenburg, president of the Human Trafficking Legal Center, which has worked with partner organizations to petition for the release of a cooperating trafficking victim from immigration detention. One former prosecutor in the southern United States said her office’s trafficking investigations were crippled after several Homeland Security Investigations agents were reassigned to immigration raids. In other jurisdictions, officials said supervisors have had to compete for the small number of agents still available to work trafficking cases. Reassigning agents, sometimes to new cities, can disrupt fragile relationships with victims and witnesses who often lack stable phones or housing, causing cases to collapse, one federal agent said. In New England, one trafficking survivor’s case stalled after agents told her they had been diverted to immigration enforcement, according to a staffer at a local advocacy organization who worked with the survivor. The advocate, who spoke on condition of anonymity to protect the survivor’s identity, said such reassignments signal to victims that their safety is not a priority. The survivor was later forced back into sex work and no longer wants to work with federal authorities, the advocate said. An FBI spokesperson said agents shifted to immigration duties had continued working on other cases, including sex trafficking, and that the transfers did not eliminate their responsibility to investigate such crimes. The spokesperson did not address whether the reassignments contributed to the decline in prosecutions. Victim support grants delayed as trust erodes As staffing has thinned, so has the financial support system meant to keep victims stable enough to testify. The Justice Department’s Office of Justice Programs typically distributes about $90 million a year in grants to nonprofit organizations that provide emergency housing, food and mental health counseling to trafficking victims. Grant recipients told Reuters that some funding has been delayed or frozen as part of the administration’s broader spending cuts. Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward said in a statement that most grants from last year have been awarded, though he did not provide specific figures, and said the department is reviewing remaining applications to ensure they align with administration priorities. Alan Smyth, executive director of the Los Angeles-based nonprofit Saving Innocence, said two federal grants totaling $700,000 were delayed for nearly a year. His organization survived the delay, but other groups told Reuters they have had to end programs or stop services entirely because of lost funding. Federal prosecutors have historically used T-visas, which grant legal immigration status to trafficking victims, as an incentive for victims to cooperate with investigations. The administration approved 354 T-visas in the first six months of the current fiscal year, about half the typical pace over the past decade, according to Department of Homeland Security data. More than 71,000 T-visa applications remain pending. Two former prosecutors said their U.S. attorney’s offices stopped supporting T-visa applications altogether. Serano said prosecutors and paralegals nationwide continue working with DHS to verify victims’ cooperation, though DHS makes the final decisions on visa applications. Several immigration attorneys told Reuters that clients actively cooperating in sex-trafficking investigations have been detained by immigration authorities, halting criminal cases. In Michigan, a Chinese woman who had been trafficked in California was detained by ICE despite having a T-visa application pending since 2022, said her attorney, Laura Berger. “If I can’t guarantee a victim won’t be locked up, how can I ethically tell them to cooperate with federal agents?” Berger said. The erosion of trust, combined with the loss of staffing, funding and institutional expertise, could have lasting consequences, said Jean Bruggeman, co-executive director of the anti-trafficking organization Freedom Network USA. “It’s hitting that tipping point where important pillars are starting to fall, which will bring down the entire anti-trafficking structure,” she said. “Rebuilding it could take years.”

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Microsoft China business

Microsoft Quietly Retreats From China After Weighing Full Exit in 2023

August 13, 2026 No Comments

Microsoft has shut at least 15 branch offices and joint ventures in China over the past five years, corporate filings show, as the company pursues what five people familiar with the matter described as a strategy of gradual retreat from the world’s second-largest economy. The technology giant considered leaving the Chinese market entirely in 2023, according to one of the sources, after some executives concluded the geopolitical risk outweighed the economic return. Microsoft currently has no plans to exit, the source stressed. China generated just 1.5% of Microsoft’s global revenue in 2024, the company said. The internal deliberations, which have not been previously reported, reflect a broader unraveling of trust between Washington and Beijing that has reshaped how American tech firms operate in China. Since 2017, Chinese authorities have pushed government agencies and state-linked firms toward domestic software, which officials consider more secure and which has grown increasingly competitive with Windows and Office. At the same time, U.S. export controls on advanced technology have limited Microsoft’s ability to expand its artificial intelligence and cloud computing operations inside China. Microsoft is not alone in reassessing its China exposure. Apple intends to manufacture most iPhones sold in the United States in India by the end of 2026. Tesla chief executive Elon Musk last month denied reports that his company was considering splitting off its China business. Why Microsoft stayed Microsoft ultimately chose to remain in China because it had built a profitable niche serving Chinese companies that need Western technology to run their overseas operations, according to three people familiar with the matter. TikTok owner ByteDance is among the clients relying on Microsoft’s services for that purpose. The company also views its China presence as essential to recruiting from the country’s deep pool of engineering talent, two of the sources said. Alain Crozier, who led Microsoft’s China operations until 2021, said the company has cultivated one of the deepest government relationships of any American tech firm. “Because of the geopolitics … some days it’s a little bit harder, but we never had a crisis,” Crozier said. A Microsoft spokesperson did not directly address questions about the company’s internal deliberations but said Microsoft operates within a regulatory environment that applies to every international supplier and remains committed to the Chinese market. The company said the current state of its China business reflects market competition, regulatory pressure and broader technological trends. ByteDance did not respond to requests for comment. A relationship dating to the 1990s Microsoft’s ties to Chinese leadership stretch back more than three decades. Co-founder Bill Gates made the first of many visits to China in 1994, when he met President Jiang Zemin, who reportedly urged him to study Chinese history. Over the following years, Microsoft co-invested in government-backed startup incubators and complied with censorship rules that Google, now part of Alphabet, refused to accept when it scaled back its China operations in 2010. That decision by Google drew praise from democracy activists but criticism from Bill Gates and then-Microsoft chief executive Steve Ballmer, who argued the search giant was overreacting to censorship and cyberattack concerns. By the mid-2010s, China had grown wary of Western technology following revelations that U.S. companies had assisted American intelligence agencies in surveillance operations. That suspicion posed a particular challenge for Microsoft, since most of China’s largest companies are state-owned or maintain close government ties. Microsoft’s answer was Windows 10 China Government Edition, a product whose release chief executive Satya Nadella personally negotiated with Chinese finance ministry officials, according to a person familiar with the talks. Several government agencies adopted the software, but it never achieved the broader traction Microsoft had hoped for, Crozier said. Around the time of that 2017 announcement, Beijing introduced procurement guidelines requiring government purchases to meet “safe and reliable” standards. No foreign operating system, including Windows, has been deemed compliant with those rules, Microsoft said. Non-compliance does not amount to an outright ban, but it subjects Chinese technology administrators using foreign software to added scrutiny, including extra security checks and approval requirements, said Paul Triolo, a Washington-based China tech policy analyst at DGA-Albright Stonebridge Group. A review of six Chinese government procurement guides published between December 2023 and May 2026 found that five did not recommend Microsoft products. The sixth listed Windows 10 China Government Edition but noted its use was subject to unspecified “additional management requirements.” China’s tech and finance ministries did not respond to questions about the impact of these regulations on Microsoft. A second wind in the private sector American businesses in China, long frustrated by an uneven regulatory playing field, have grown more cautious as U.S.-China relations have soured. Just 52% of respondents to the American Chamber of Commerce in China’s most recent business climate survey named China a top global investment priority, down from 62% in 2019. While Microsoft’s push to become Beijing’s preferred technology vendor stalled, the company found new momentum with private companies. Firms such as ByteDance and fast-fashion retailer Shein depend on Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform to manage data in ways that satisfy foreign regulatory requirements, according to two company sources. Microsoft also gives Chinese enterprise clients exclusive access through Azure to Western AI models from providers such as OpenAI, which do not otherwise serve the Chinese market. By the mid-2020s, helping Chinese companies expand internationally had become Microsoft’s largest China-linked business line, according to three sources, though two cautioned that overall sales remain modest compared with the company’s global operations. Analysts have questioned the durability of that AI-driven business, since it depends on third-party suppliers like OpenAI and faces competition from cheaper domestic Chinese AI models such as Kimi. OpenAI and Shein did not respond to requests for comment. Losing the talent battle Microsoft has played a central role in developing China’s technology workforce since the 1990s, hiring commercially focused engineers and establishing Microsoft Research China to work on advanced technologies. Alumni of that lab now hold senior positions at Chinese AI firms SenseTime and DeepSeek. Recent political pressure has made it harder for Microsoft to hold onto that talent. U.S. export controls on chips and AI models have cut off Microsoft’s China-based engineers from cutting-edge technology. Microsoft president Brad Smith told U.S. lawmakers in 2023 that the company does not conduct research on quantum computing or other sensitive technologies in China. Microsoft weighed closing the research lab entirely but instead chose to relocate some of its top researchers, according to two people familiar with the decision. Since U.S. AI export restrictions took hold, the lab, now called Microsoft Research Asia, has opened new outposts in Vancouver, Singapore and Tokyo. Convincing engineers to leave China altogether has proven difficult. In 2024, Microsoft offered relocation packages to 1,000 top engineers, moving them to the United States or three other Western countries. Only about a third accepted, according to the sources. Microsoft confirmed it made relocation offers that year but declined to provide further details. Most of the engineers who turned down relocation instead moved to Chinese universities or domestic tech companies, where they can continue high-level research while staying close to family, the two sources said. Microsoft has faced talent poaching from domestic rivals before. The company’s attrition rate in China hovered around 17% in the mid-2010s, Crozier said, before Microsoft brought it below 10% by expanding new business lines, including its work with ByteDance, and offering staff opportunities to work abroad. “There is up and down in terms of the number of people and maybe some of the things that were developed over there,” Crozier said. “But we never change one inch of the fact that we will bring technology into China … for China, for Chinese companies.”

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